So who's going to win in Sydney?

By The Crowd / Roar Guru

Australian Adam Ashleigh Cooper (centre) is tackled by New Zealand’s Jimmy Cowan (right) and Ali Williams (left) during the Tri Nations final between the Australian Wallabies and New Zealand All Blacks at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2008. The All Blacks beat the Wallabies 28-24. AAP Image/Dave Hunt

With New Zealand and Australia both returning from South Africa somewhat shell shocked, this mid-tournament clash is shaping up to be a pivotal encounter in this year’s Tri-Nations. Yet there doesn’t seem to be much in the way of excitement or anticipation for Saturday’s Test.

Both sides are coming off back-to-back away losses, and they’re both due for a win of any sort.

The All Blacks need a win to retain the Bledisloe Cup and keep their Tri-Nations hopes alive. The Wallabies need to win all of their remaining games if they’re to have any chance of winning either title.

So who’s going to win in Sydney? Or better yet, who will play well enough to avoid losing?

Let’s face it, these aren’t vintage Australian and New Zealand sides. That doesn’t mean that they can’t produce a spectacle in Sydney, but in such a must-win fixture, the chances are that you’ll see some less-than-great rugby.

Here’s a look at some of the issues facing both teams, starting with the home side:

AUSTRALIA
I fired some shots at the Wallabies earlier in the season for not playing well, and I think their away results have justified those comments. If you’re not playing well at home, then your away performances will be even worse, and the same is true for the All Blacks.

The Wallabies’ game plan this year appears to be to play well in all areas of the game, but in doing so, they’re not excelling in any particular area.

It’s easy to point out the type of players the Wallabies are missing, but the Wallaby squad is what it is. Robbie Deans has made a career out of making the most of what he has, but I think it’s time to drop the provincial mentality of being solid in all areas and do justice to the Wallabies by having them play to a strength.

Traditionally, that strength has been their attack. It seems clear from Australian supporter’s comments that a lot of people are unhappy with the current style of play, and I think that’s something Deans’ needs to change for the good of the game in Australia.

In recent times, the Wallabies have been forced to attack while losing the forward confrontations.

That’s something Deans would dearly love to change, and there will be a lot of expectation on the returning Rocky Elsom, but he’ll have matured into a damn fine player if he’s to exert any influence over this game after such a long layoff.

Instead, I think Deans should concentrate on the make-up of his backline, because it really is one of the weaker Australian backlines in recent memory.

How long can Deans persist with Giteau at first five before he acknowledges that it hasn’t worked? Giteau was heralded as the best first five in the world during the Super 14, but it’s painfully obvious that Giteau isn’t a natural five eighths.

Berrick Barnes has a better kicking game out of hand, and the Wallabies would be better suited to a more traditional first five/inside centre combination than watching their present tandem struggle to juggle the kicking duties.

Mortlock’s injury is a blessing in disguise, since it’ll prove once and for all whether he should still be in the side.

The All Blacks have spent a lot of energy in recent years trying to prevent Mortlock from getting over the advantage line, so there may be an opportunity for Adam Ashley-Cooper to slip a few tackles if the All Blacks relax in that area.

Plus, it forces the All Blacks to defend a new look backline, which never really hurts.

James O’Connor is young and still has an adventurous spirit, so he should be fun to watch from the back. Provided the Wallabies elect to run.

The worst thing the Wallabies can do in this Test is try to play a clever kicking game. Kicking the ball away will further rip the soul from Australian rugby. They should attack as much as they possibly can and try to make dents in the All Black defence.

The All Blacks’ defence is one of the only things they have going for them at the moment. Punch holes in it and the All Blacks will fold like an accordion.

And for God’s sake, use Lachie Turner. That guy must feel like he’s still playing for the Waratahs. He’s been practically invisible in the Tri-Nations to date.

NEW ZEALAND
The All Blacks’ problems could take up an article of their own, so I’ll try to be brief.

The All Blacks just don’t seem prepared for this Test season. Whether it’s because of the short off-season or the fact that so many of the player’s Super 14 seasons were disrupted by injury, leaving their short on game time, they simply haven’t been capable of giving a hundred percent in their six Tests to date.

The only times we’ve seen a committed forward performance from the All Blacks have been the second Test against France and the second half against the Wallabies at Eden Park.

Aside from that, they’ve been outmuscled by more physical packs.

The All Blacks’ biggest strength – their back row – has failed to make an impression in all but their Test match victories, and So’oialo has made way for Kieran Read as a consequence.

All eyes are on Daniel Carter, but there’s a sense that people aren’t getting too excited until they see what he’s capable of on the field. In fact, there doesn’t seem to be as many butterflies in the stomach as there were leading up to last year’s Eden Park match against the Wallabies.

Speaking for myself, I can hardly muster any enthusiasm for this Test, and I think it’s up to the players to win the fans back. I would suggest it will take something more substantial than a shaky Test win to do this.

One advantage the All Blacks have is that several of them have been released to play for their clubs in the Air New Zealand Cup.

This year’s ANZC has had a somewhat encouraging atmosphere, and hopefully that’s rubbed off on the All Black players. I may be reading too much into the situation, but it appears that the NZ rugby public are sick of the SANZAR triumvirate and would like rugby to return to being the national game. If that’s the case, then I couldn’t agree more.

The danger with Carter returning is that given the All Blacks want to free themselves from their shackles and attack with the ball in hand, they may lose a foot race to the Wallabies at home. The irony of that is that it would probably produce the spectacle that this Tri-Nations needs, but a third straight loss would be a somewhat killer blow for Henry and most of his players.

Hence, I’m not that excited to see what the All Blacks will come up.

McAlister to second five is a logical choice and one that Henry may have been planning for a while, but McAlister hasn’t look good at any point this season and reportedly wasn’t that great playing for North Harbour.

Rokocoko’s inclusion is a surprise and may have something to do with Henry’s clash with Wellington coach Jamie Joseph over game time for Cory Jane specifically.

So who’s going to win?

The All Blacks’ have long struggled in Sydney. Since 1991, they have a 5-10 record at the Sydney Football Stadium. Sydney was the site of Robbie Deans’ only victory over the All Blacks to date and where they probably produced their best Test performance under Deans so far.

A third straight loss would be new territory for a Graham Henry All Blacks side, but they’ve already broken new ground this year with three losses to date.

Neither side inspires a great deal of confidence, but I think I’m going with the Wallabies here. On one proviso – they consolidate on their good starts.

In both Tri-Nations Tests, they scored the opening tries and in both Tests they allowed the opposition to kick their way back into the match.

I suppose the most interesting thing about Saturday night’s contest will be whether New Zealand or Australia adopt any of South Africa’s tactics, or whether they try to play the style of rugby that both countries’ enjoy.

For the sake of the game, I hope it’s the latter.

The Crowd Says:

2009-08-22T23:07:39+00:00

Grandpabhaile

Guest


You see a wonderful attacking running rugby game, QC. I see an error strewn, erratic one, rby both teams - ultimately resolved by penalties, cos their running got them diddly squat bar one try. Them's the breaks. I was referring to what Henry and McCaw said. I didn't mention Deans who if I recall didn't support Henry's remarks, but in fact said something to the effect of the Laws need to bed in, and be given time. McCaw did the pragmatic thing and took the kicks. And in a penalty situation your options are to a) tap and run b) kick for field position with a touch or c) take a kick at the posts. Funny how they took the kicks at post all the time. A captain and team with a bit of bottle and confidence might have gone for territory and a try on at least one occasion. But they played the percentages.

2009-08-22T22:45:25+00:00

Pippinu

Roar Guru


Have to agree with QC, geez, how could anyone deny NZ last night?! Sure, they were untidy first half, absolutely stacks of woeful passes and handling errors - but the wallabies put on stacks of pressure - at one point in the first half, the ABs had only got past the advantage line on 50% - that shows some bloody minded defence from the Wallabies! It swung big time in the 2nd half - big time - it was a matter of time that the levee would break. For that final play, at around the 78th, just before the Carter penalty, where were the numbers for the Wallabies to help out? Walking back, half jogging - absolutely spent, no petrol tickets left - game over.

2009-08-22T22:21:47+00:00

QC

Guest


But that is where you are wrong Grandaphile, I would say the constant attacking running rugby put the All Blacks in the position to win the game. Australia were always going to break it was a matter of when not if. The final penalty had the Aussie back let go of the ball which he was in turn penalised for you could just about guarantee the ABs would have scored. Your argument is that they got the [enalty right? Well the attacking and running rugby created the oppurtunites not the other way around where they were kicking endlessly in the hope that a infringement would occur so that they could then in turn kick a goal. Please don't try to twist what Henry and Deans were bemoaning pre-match because what you infer is not what happened on the park last night!

2009-08-22T21:56:34+00:00

Justin

Guest


So NZ have wasted 24 years then? ;)

2009-08-22T20:23:41+00:00

Knives Out

Guest


Thank you, Frank.

2009-08-22T20:21:18+00:00

Frank O'Keeffe

Guest


Polota-Nau came onto the field when Stephen Moore busted his nose up real good. I think Moore collided with Alexander when he was tackling someone. That thing just wouldn't stop bleeding. Moore eventually came back onto the field, but once again went to the blood bin due to his injury. Genia came on very late in the game. Actually I hadn't noticed him until the Wallabies regained possession in the 79th minute and had one final chance to win the game. I've had enough of Burgess. He's not an international test rugby player. Don't remember seeing Pocock. McCalister had a bad night with injuries too. Dude looked dazed.

2009-08-22T20:13:10+00:00

Knives Out

Guest


Guys, I only caught the first 20 minutes. Could anybody tell me if Polota-Nau, Pocock or Genia were used off the bench?

2009-08-22T19:48:27+00:00

Frank O'Keeffe

Guest


Sam, Somebody made the suggestion to me that Matt Giteau should play halfback and it was like a lightning bolt hitting me. He was pretty good there in 2006-2007 when Connolly was experimenting. He's so sharp that he seldom missed an opportunity around the fringes. He was always quick to the breakdown and had an energy and zest that Gregan seemed to have lost by that stage. But the Wallabies would have the same problem they had back then which was 'Who should play inside centre?' Maybe one of the Super 14 sides could feed into the Wallabies? Also I've maintained for a while that Ryan Cross should be at #13. Asley-Cooper is an honest footballer and very vrave in the tackle, but cross is a more elusive runner and reads the game very well. Australia also hasn't recovered from Chris Latham's retirement. Lots of Kiwi's have labelled him overrated and inconsistent, but he's the type of player Australia don't have right now - they type of player none of them are. I think James O'Connor is the right selection at fullback, and hopefully he'll grow into a confident mature player. But right now you can't expect the world from him - he's only 19.

2009-08-22T15:51:08+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


OJ you beat me to it as I was going to make similar comments about Hore's game as well as Brad Thorn, the two unsung heroes in our pack tonight. The pick and go was a great tactical adjustment and I thought it was only in the second half that the backline started to shake off their first half rustiness. The Wallabies weren't lacking in committment but penaly goals alone wasn't going to be enough for either team to win the game, we scored the only try so fair enough.

2009-08-22T15:36:31+00:00

ohtani's jacket

Guest


I wanted to make special note of Andrew Hore, who had his best game all season. de Malmanche must be wondering what he has to do to get playing time, however. Henry rewarded a lot of guys with heavy minutes, and I thought it was constructive that he actually allowed the starting halfback to stay on the field for most of the Test. Nonu and So'oialo got involved like you'd hope they would off the bench. The latter finally returned to what he does best -- playing offside. Ha. The backline looked sharper than the past few weeks, but we're still not able to counter attack like we used to. That may or may not return, but it was interesting how much more comfortable Donald looked dropping back into that quasi fullback/winger defensive position he was in. The guy has a fair boot when he's not under any pressure. The lineouts were better and we even mauled a bit. Our catching under the high ball was a big positive, but our chasing still leaves a bit to be desired. Our work at the kick-offs was a bit messy after a good start, but all and all we didn't make too many bad errors, and our scrum was pretty good. We need to work on clearing out rucks though, because whatever tactics we used before are no longer kosher. I thought the Wallabies had carte blanche at the rucks for the most part, and I did not like the first two penalties that Australia kicked, but the change to the pick and go strategy worked pretty well in the second half. Decent team performance, I thought. Wallabies defended well and it was hard not to feel for George Smith at the end. No matter what Wallaby supporters say over the next week, I think they did more than enough to win that Test.

2009-08-22T15:31:17+00:00

ThelmaWrites

Guest


Sam T My reply to your post got sandwiched somewhere else. I'll just re-post it after the last in the thread: "Sam T I’m not scratching my head. It’s bleeding obvious. “Play what’s in front of you (PWIFOY)” doesn’t work with this lot. YOU CAN’T DRILL IT. It doesn’t come naturally to them. Bob Dywer used to say “Practice makes perfect and perfect practice makes a perfect game” or words to the effect. Michael Lynagh said “Play perfect rugby and the scoreboard will look after itself” or words to the effect, similarly. To persist with PWIFOY is futile. We’re just serving ourselves (the Aussies) a lot of heartbreak. So what’s the alternative? Swallow the pride and copy Wales, Ireland, France, and the Lions on their best games. After all, the SH used to play that way. They got it from us. Or Sydney Uni when they’re carving up Randwick. These games are drillable. It’s 1:25 a.m. and I’m still angry."

2009-08-22T15:24:21+00:00

ThelmaWrites

Guest


Sam T I'm not scratching my head. It's bleeding obvious. "Play what's in front of you (PWIFOY)" doesn't work with this lot. YOU CAN'T DRILL IT. It doesn't come naturally to them. Bob Dywer used to say "Practice makes perfect and perfect practice makes a perfect game" or words to the effect. Michael Lynagh said "Play perfect rugby and the scoreboard will look after itself" or words to the effect, similarly. To persist with PWIFOY is futile. We're just serving ourselves (the Aussies) a lot of heartbreak. So what's the alternative? Swallow the pride and copy Wales, Ireland, France, and the Lions on their best games. After all, the SH used to play that way. They got it from us. Or Sydney Uni when they're carving up Randwick. These games are drillable. It's 1:25 a.m. and I'm still angry.

2009-08-22T15:10:38+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


Frank I know for me the key position for NZ is openside flanker. When we struggled from 1998-2002 we had nobody to match or better George Smith. When McCaw arrived on the domestic rugby scene in 2001 and made his debut in 2002 we finally had a flanker to challenge Smith for the loose ball. That's when I knew the tide would begin to turn. I've always believed the key position in a Wallaby side was halfback and whenever you've had a quality player in that position who possessed a swift pass and good vision your side's fortunes began to change. For all his qualities and committment I don't believe that Luke Burgess is that player or will become one. The bones are starting to get assembled. In Alexander and Robinson there are two props who will change the world's perception of the Wallaby scrum. New blood is required at lock. Smith and Elsom complement each other's game perfectly and you just need a quality no.8 to complete the trio. Of the current backline I think Deans has got Giteau and Barnes around the wrong way and needs a new halfback. Ioane at centre would provide the X factor that has been missing from the Wallaby backline since Campese's retirement however the back three are missing something and don't pose the threat or worry to the opposition if they kick the ball down their throat. I think that NZ and Australia should move away from coaching their wingers as pesudo fullbacks and let them be the strike players that won them attention in the first place. A player like Lomu would have been regarded as too much of a defensive liability in today's game instead of the potent attacking threat he was.

2009-08-22T15:10:31+00:00

Grandpabhaile

Guest


True Othani, I did. Or rather I said, I didn't think they would. I thought Aus would win this one, but got it wrong. QC said that "The simple fact that you even asked that question smacks of your ignorance to the game that was on display. While many kicks were taken it was hardly the objective of the game from either team. Both sides put on a very entertaining match with a lot of ball in hand. - Well I don't think I was ignorant to the game that was on display since I watched it. As Othani said above, the final 20 minutes was compelling to see who might win. Don't delude yourself that this was thrilling running rugby - it wasn't. NZ were average, Australia poor.

2009-08-22T15:02:19+00:00

Grandpabhaile

Guest


It's a toughie for Australia. The match wasn't a classic to watch (except possibly for die-hard fans of both sides with their yellow or black-tinted glasses) Far too disjointed, error strewn, lots of aimless running, and little to show on the try scoreboard at the end of it. It's somewhat ironic that the manner of winning pursued by SA, and complained of by Henry, was what won NZ the game. McCaw at least was more realistic in having the pragmatic view of taking what's in front of them. At least the two previous games had a bit more bollock and atmosphere to them. With SA on the road, they'll have looked at this match with interest, and probably licked their lips.

2009-08-22T14:30:47+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


I'm glad you mentioned it first Frank as that was the point I was alluding to earlier about the performance of the Wallaby backline, I think it has regressed this year compared to last year and while the scrum is better, the lineout isn't the bankable area of strength it used to be and the work at the breakdown fades badly in the second half. I wonder what an old warhorse like Phil Waugh would do if he was injected as an impact player but then he's not a longer term option and Pocock is possibly the heir apparent to George Smith. If the All Blacks were down on confidence, I think the Wallabies confidence will be severely dented by the manner of this loss, just as winning is a habit so is losing and they must be wishing that there was no halftime break and the first half would just play out for 80 minutes.

2009-08-22T14:23:18+00:00

Frank O'Keeffe

Guest


The thing is Sam, New Zealand's form goes in cycles. It's a bit different in that the quality of rigby in New Zealand is either good or very good - it's never bad. But right now this All Black side isn't the side it was in 2006. They go through cycles too! Now is the time Australia should be beating New Zealand. That 22-16 game in Auckland this year was the worst I've seen New Zealand play in a long time. I don't think Australia's going to get many years where New Zealand play as poorly as they have this year (although they did play quite well in that second half in the most recent Test). I honestly think this Aussie side has gone backwards from where they were last year. With Giteau at 5/8, no great fullback like Latham, I just can't see Australia winning anything significant in the future. Even the forwards are a step down from the Finegan's and Kefu's who used to really get stuck into the action. Those were guys who'd get you over the gain-line 9/10 and take two or three defenders with them every time. It's going to be a very long time before Australia wins the Bledisloe back, and even longer before Australia wins the Tri Nations.

2009-08-22T14:21:30+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


Yeah I see your point. At 18-15 I really believed the Wallabies would hold on for the win and when we turned the ball over at the end I was waiting for the match winning try to be scored but the All Blacks have got the knack for getting out of jail against Australia at the moment. Deans looked very forlorn after the match and I sympathised for him.

2009-08-22T14:14:32+00:00

Sam Taulelei

Guest


Frank I am always the eternal optimist (you have to be to follow the Hurricanes) and used to despair if NZ would return to it's glory days after so many heartbreaking losses at the death against Australia from 1998 - 2002. Everything in sport is cyclical and as such I do believe that success and style will return to Australian rugby but it will most likely come from the next group of age grade players rather than from the existing squad who make incremental improvements in some areas but collectively as a group for every step forward it's another step back.

2009-08-22T14:13:19+00:00

ohtani's jacket

Guest


Eden Park and Newlands were prior to the All Blacks getting penalised in defence and attack alike. They were probably better performances, but I really thought we showed some backbone tonight.

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