I had a drink today with a London stockbroker who works for one of the big firms in the city. He’s about forty, very well groomed, and was wearing a top of the line Hugo Boss.
He also follows rugby, as well as the market, and he had this to say about the games coming up on the weekend.
“I’m a contrarian. I tend to buy certain companies that are being rubbished in the financial press, and sell certain companies that are being praised.
“I’ve always gone against the herd because the herd is too often swept up by market momentum, and they too seldom examine the fundamentals.
“It’s the same with rugby internationals. A lot of people overlook the fundamentals and allow themselves to be swayed by patriotic feelings.
“They want their team to win, therefore they think it will win. That’s a little like thinking an investment is going to do well because you want it to do well.
“So for the weekend’s rugby I’ve factored all the info I could gather into the mix – who’s injured, who isn’t, who’s playing in which position, how they did last time out, strengths and weaknesses of their opponents, it’s a long list – then I checked the popular forecasts and found, not to my surprise, that I don’t agree with them.”
“Okay, so let’s hear your contrary predictions.”
“The Wallabies will beat Ireland. France will beat South Africa. Fiji will beat Scotland, and the All Blacks will score three tries and Italy none.”
“That’s four results. How many do you need to be correct to call it a good weekend?”
“Three.”
“How about the Pumas and England?”
“I can’t be a contrarian on that one, and it’s not because I’m English. It’s because England have Wilko and Argentina doesn’t.”
We had another round then he said goodbye, got into his chauffeured Merc, and zoomed away. So he clearly knows his financial onions.
But is he as smart about rugby as he is about finance? I can’t wait to find out.
Incidentally, when I got back to the office, I went with the herd and bought 50 shares of Apple.
MarkR
Guest
One out of four, not a great result, but if his risk reward was high enough he'd still have made money.
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Hobart Have you placed any bets of this guys advice. Incredible. He been on the money with every game thus far. 20-6 at the San Siro. The Italians would be more than satisfied with that.
Cattledog
Roar Guru
Don't think you can go too far wrong with shares in Apple, Hobart. Isn't Tassie the apple Isle!! lol
ilikedahoodoogurusingha
Guest
Well....the broker is right so far........ France 20 Springboks 13
Stash
Guest
There are so many quality rugby games on this weekend!! I normally use mediazone and can get to watch games after they're played. No such luck with northern hemisphere games this year though (they have no rights). Anyone know where we can watch games after they have been played (pay sites are fine)?
Shahsan
Guest
I hope you are right, Klestical. Thats the three I want to see too. And a French win
Klestical
Guest
Im hoping for three upsets this weekend. Fiji to beat Scotland Samoa to beat Wales Italy to beat NZ: NZ are without Carter, have 3 debutants and a completely new line up in front of 80 000 Italian audience. Italy also stops ABs from playing their natural game.
netrug
Guest
Here is the full list of international games that are being played this weekend. Of the top 20 rated teams, only Russia will not be involved. The home team is listed first:- Italy A v Romania, Georgia A v Ukraine Ireland A v Tonga, Wales v Samoa, France v South Africa, Moldova v Czech Republic, Austria v Norway, Monaco v Cyprus, Georgia v Argentina Jaguars, Egypt v Libya Europe v French Barbarians, England v Argentina, Scotland v Fiji, Italy v New Zealand, Tunisia v Namibia, Uruguay v USA, Ireland v Australia, Japan v Canada, Some of the games are RWC2011 qualifiers whilst the others are tour matches or preliminary games for the European Nations Cup, first division. This is probably the highest standard weekend ever of Rugby outside a World Cup.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
WCR no doubt that a margin like that will be worth celebrating!
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Pip Hey I'm hoping the Azzuri roll the AB's ( bloody unlikely) or even stay relatively close. They made a big thing about losing by only 27 points earlier this year. If they only lost by 21 or less they'd be estatic.
Pippinu
Roar Guru
WCR fair enough - ok - I admit it - I was being a smart @rse - as you were!!
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Pip No, the odd thing about the AB prediction is they'd only score 3 tries.
sledgeross
Guest
Pip at his cynical best ;)
Pippinu
Roar Guru
The ABs will defeat Italy? Geez, he must have thought long and hard about that one!!