Why Mayweather can't lose fight for the ages

It’s not often we, as fight fans, get what we want. With too many official bodies offering too many belts to too many pretenders, and not enough contenders, it seems at times that, as fans of this brutal yet beautiful sport, we are often left feeling like the only ones who get short changed amongst the glitz, glamour and cash at the high end of the sport.

Until now.

With the announcement that Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will face off in a fight that promises to break all sorts of revenue records on March 13th, as a fight fan you are no doubt (a) planning your fight party well in advance (b) saying thanks for not having to sit through another Klitschko Brother fight (for the record, if I knew Russian, which I don’t, I’d be pretty certain that Klitschko translates to English as ‘Boring as Hell’) and most importantly (c) wondering why every ‘big’ fight doesn’t make you feel this excited.

This could be one for the ages.

There aren’t too many boxing observers that would disagree with the statement that the unofficial title of Best Pound for Pound Fighter on the Planet will rest with the victor of this fight.

It’s just a shame that the result rests in the hands of only one of them.

It’s no secret that I am a fan of ‘Pretty Boy Floyd’, which isn’t to say that I don’t respect Pacquiao’s ability and amazing achievements in the ring.

Manny has proven to be a warrior, taking on, and defeating, brutally in many cases, any fighter that has come his way, regardless of reputation or chances of knocking him out. At times, this couldn’t be said of Mayweather, especially having dodged Miguel Cotto and Antonio Margarito while both were at their respective peaks. Whilst not shying away from those questionable past choices, not to end up in the ring with either or both Cotto or Margarito, and understanding those that say this indicates a lack of heart on Floyd’s part, with wins over Ricky Hatton and Carlos Baldomir within his last four fights, not to mention Oscar de la Hoya (who was well past his best years but still possessed knockout ability and must have been less past it vs Mayweather than when he faced Manny himself last year?), surely this argument is fading, especially in light of this latest fight coming to fruition, and so quickly.

One look over Mayweather’s unblemished record will show wins over Arturo Gatti (may he R.I.P) and Jose Luis Castillo, both future Hall of Fame fighters and certainly no slouches themselves.

Every boxing fan will have an opinion on this fight, that’s what makes it great, and one of the things I love about the sport. My opinion is that Floyd can’t lose, won’t lose. He has superior hand speed, footwork, defence, and a comparable knock out rate with Pac-Man (although so far as pure punching power, I give the advantage to Manny).

This will be an unpopular opinion with many, specifically fans of Pacquiao, which I accept. This has more to do with people’s views on Floyd’s persona rather than their view of him as one of the best fighters we have seen. Floyd’s mouth often runs…fast, and seemingly out of control. This is who he is. He does everything fast. Fast money, fast talking, fast living….but most concerning for Pacquiao and his legion of fans, will be the speed at which he moves his hands.

As I mentioned previously, Mayweather possesses knock out power, there’s no doubt about that, and even less doubt about the sleeping pills in Manny’s hands after witnessing his effort vs Hatton (the bells are still ringing in Ricky’s ears).

But, based on Pacquiao’s last fight vs Cotto, I think this fight will go the distance. If Cotto can go 12 rounds (albeit not quite the full 12, and depending on who you ask, he was a side of beef after six rounds..but still, he was upright) with his primary defensive tactic being to deflect the majority of punches with his face, then Floyd’s movement and ability to keep his chin out of harms way will be enough to get him through 36 minutes safely enough (anyone in the ring with Manny Pacquiao is going to eat their share of punches, it’s the clean, pure, power punches that do the damage, and hitting ‘Money’ cleanly is like winning Lotto).

So, and not to give any of my educated boxing readers a condescending lesson on the sweet science, but if the fight goes the distance, we come down to points, and if we come down to points, we come down to punches thrown, punches landed and depending on who is doing the scoring, a little luck.

Even if we ignore the luck element and remain oblivious to the fact that the fight will likely be in Las Vegas, Mayweather’s home, and his record of getting the best of any decision he has been a part of (and he is an American, fighting a foreigner in Vegas, this can’t be discounted, regardless of Pac-Man’s popularity in the sport), Floyd will still throw more punches, with more accuracy, and for more rounds, than anyone Pacquiao has faced in his career. If he manages to withstand them, which admittedly he is more than capable of doing, it’s still not going to help him with the judges. Advantage? Money.

Pacquiao has gained the support of millions of fight fans around the world with his heart, courage and determination. The fact that he is a tremendously talented fighter, coupled with his relentless pursuit of his opponent in the ring makes him a hit on Pay per View TVs across the globe. While he possesses many strengths, and is more than adequate defensively, it is his aggressive style that I think could ultimately swing the fight in Mayweather’s favour.

With Manny moving forward more often than not, constantly on the attack and looking to land either of those vicious hands, I really feel that Floyd’s ability to slip and score, often with three or four punch combinations will see him in front at the end of every round, save a flash knock down by Manny (which isn’t out of the question). The fact he will no doubt be backing up a lot of the fight, keeping Manny’s punches longer and not allowing him to set his feet, therefore taking some of the heat off his blows, lessens the chance of both fighters trading blows, which increases Pacquiao’s chances of scoring another devastating knock out. Advantage? Again, to me it lies with Money.

So if he can’t land the punches he wants, and the punches he does land are not as clean as he has become accustomed to landing, at the very least this means Manny Pacquiao could be in for a long night. In any case he will be forced to earn the millions of dollars he stands to gain. At worst? As the rounds, and scores mount against him, it places Pacquiao in an unfamiliar position of playing catch up, which generally leads to risks being taken in the ring. A high risk combination, a punch with more frustration behind it than technique, one second of doubt, all of these things will play on any fighters mind, Manny is not immune, even if he is mentally tougher than many fighters, even some of the greats. If he takes risks, he will get knocked out. Simple as that. Mayweather has picked off even the most focused of fighters in the ring with better defence and equally harder hands as Pac-Man, if Manny is careless, even as a result of frustration, he loses the fight. Hands down.

Regardless of any of these points (what do I know anyway?), the fact remains that, provided it lives up to the hype it has already started to generate, this will be a fight most fight fans won’t want to miss, and there’s a good chance we’ll be watching highlights some time down the track, glad that we had paid our $49.95 for the privilege. I’ve started planning my fight party (have you?), and am anticipating the book so I can lay some hard earned down on it.

No prizes for guessing who I’ll be backing…