Australian rugby did not have its finest year in 2009. It was a year that will not want to be remembered and celebrated like 1984 or 1999.
There was though one great announcement for rugby in Australia last year: the imminent introduction of the fifth Australian Super rugby team – the Melbourne Rebels.
Naturally with any announcement of a new sporting venture comes speculation as to the success that it may expect.
Predictions for the Rebels fortunes can not be based on the standard of the international game. Rugby is light years ahead of rugby league in representation overseas but this has never had a flow on effect here at home.
And nor can you predict that league will dominate rugby in Melbourne just because it has done so in Queensland and NSW.
It would seem the opinion of your average St George or Waratahs fan as to which rugby code is exciting and which is boring is redundant when discussing the Rebels.
We are talking about Melbourne here – the AFL capital of Australia, a giant fishbowl where AFL is a religion and the other codes exist only on the peripheral.
Well not quite = football does come in at a distant second. Then there is a further gap and you will find the rugby codes languishing at the bottom of the barrel.
Perhaps the Rebels will be able to learn from the experiences of the Storm when it comes to trying to crack the tough Melbourne sporting nutshell.
Swiping Storm CEO Brian Waldron is a great first step.
Waldron will not be able to give the Rebels the magic secret to profitability in Melbourne – unless he has kept this to himself during his time at the Storm – but he will be able to give a realistic idea of the monumental challenge facing the Rebels in AFL land.
It will be fascinating to see how the rugby codes go head to head on the relatively clean slate that is Melbourne, competing on an even playing field.
But one question is, is it an even playing field?
The Storm had to start from nothing; the Rebels will have the advantage of having the opportunity to build on the existing rugby community in Melbourne that has been in existence for a century.
However, this community is modest when compared to rugby communities in NSW and QLD. Victorians as a whole were not exactly crying out for their own rugby team.
The VRU was not even deemed strong enough by the ARU to run their own Super franchise and consequently the Rebels are the first Australian Super franchise to have private ownership.
Private ownership may be new to Super rugby in Australia but the NRL currently has six privately owned clubs. (Ironically it will soon be seven as the Melbourne Storm are in the process of changing hands from News Ltd to private owners).
Is reliance on private ownership of major consequence to the Rebels?
To answer this, we can look at the two main ingredients needed with a new team or franchise: time and money.
It will take time for the Rebels to take hold in Victoria, to form the own nice little niche.
The Storm are still considered quite young having been in existence for 11 years (although they were born out of adversary – the Super league war – and have been for the most part neglected by the NRL).
Importantly the NRL views the Storm as a long term work in process, in the same way that the AFL will view Western Sydney and the Gold Coast. The ARU will be no different with the Rebels.
The real challenge for the Rebels will be money.
Simply put, the ARU is not in the same league (excuse the pun) as the NRL and AFL in terms of popularity and therefore finances to support new teams.
The AFL wants $1 billion for their next TV broadcast deal and the NRL having slightly superior accumulative TV viewing figures this year means they will be asking for something similar.
The ARU are still fighting to get Super Rugby on to FTA.
A smaller ARU bank balance places more pressure on the Rebels to become profitable in the short term than will be placed on the Storm or Western Sydney.
And the Rebels private owners are not concerned with administering the game of rugby. They are investors and like any other investors their primary goal is to make money, pure and simple.
Another factor was the state of the games in 2009.
The two referee system in the NRL has cleaned up the ruck allowing a faster flowing game and the viewers have tuned in.
Rugby is unfortunately currently on an opposing trend with heated discussions between fans in regards to the game becoming too defensive, having too much kicking and too much power in the hands of the referee.
Where has the beautiful running game they play in heaven gone?
If these suggested problems facing the state of play in modern rugby are valid they will affect the Rebels fortunes as much as any other Australian Super rugby team.
In fact, they will hurt the Rebels more as the Rebels will be relying on converting new fans, not testing the patience of the faithful.
The average rugby fan would feel far more confident in their predictions for the fate of the Rebels if rugby could be the running game again and the ARU had just signed a lucrative FTA TV contract.
This will most likely not be the case in the Rebels immediate future.
This is not a scenario that the ARU – or more importantly the private owners – can afford to imagine in the medium to long term.
Will Melbourne embrace the Rebels? The reality is that the future of the Rebels is not in the hands of your average rugby fan.
Its future lies in the hands of the good people of Melbourne and the patience of the private owners.
Siva Samoa
Guest
Queensland rugby paticipation and players club register numbers have increase from last year.
RJ
Guest
Rugby is dying a slow death in NSW and QLD. I'm more concerned about that.
Spencer
Guest
There is a lot to be said for a big boot! BTW - The P76 also had a V8.
rugbyfuture
Roar Guru
this rating system is going to stop alot of this discussion soon, copying the weblogs network commenting system, good work whoever implemented it. although i can imagine i will get voted down often
Justin
Guest
I think you are drawing a very long bow if you think that a guest speaker or a one day clinic is the major reason why Vic is producing Aussie Schoolboys. A scholarship to the Academy? The Academy is for players out of school and on the fringe of S14 selection. Dropping the logo? How many Brumby matches have been in Melbourne? Rep I have no doubt (and I have been heavily involved) that Brumby rugby has helped Vic Rugby (and vice versa) but to insinuate that it was a vital cog in the success of junior Vic rugby players is way over stating things. Do you know first instance that the TryRugby program was instigated by the VRU? That the VRU has been running a Talent ID program since the mid 90s?
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Not me. An obvious failure on the Swans behalf. Must be all that investment outside the state. ;D
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Republican Ditto.
Big Kev
Guest
If we look at former S14 players not currently playing in Aus to try and get an idea of the sort of squad Melbourne could end up with, it's not too bad. Of course the o/s players and 1 or 2 young league players will add to that. O/S players: Latham Hewat Chifkofkse Tuquiri Staniforth S Kefu S.Byrne B.Jacobs Norton-Knight Rooney Gasnier SB Williams ? M. Edmonds B.James M.Henjak R.Blake G.Hardy J.Salvi D.Vickerman B.Cockbain B.Robinson T.Horua D.Lyons add: C.Wing, K.Hunt and others
Lazza
Guest
Whenever Melbourne papers have polls to gauge the most popular sports team outside of the AFL the Victory always comes out on top. MV Dave is right, most people in the AFL states don't even know the difference between the two Rugbys including our Federal Sports Minister. We do, however, know the Wallabies since they are an important national team and that is probably the only 'Rugby' most of us would watch.
Working Class Rugger
Guest
Justin I don't really care if I get a response from the great broken record.
Big Kev
Guest
Yes there are. Based on 2006 Census there were slightly more South African born citizens in Perth than Melbourne but if you add in temporary residents on student and work visas Melbourne has over 20,000 Saffas and def. Kiwis and PIs
DaMan3000
Guest
Jay /Big Kev - in 2006 (the last census) Perth had 18683 residents born in South Africa and Melbourne had 17317. Next census is in 2011
Jay
Guest
In 2000, people came out in droves to watch syncronised swimming at the olympics, as well as equesterian, weight lifting, diving etc in the olympics. It says nothing about the health of the game apart from the fact that people turn up to events. End of the day, union is better in terms of internations and the wallaby brand is better than the kangaroos. Domestically, RL is doing better.Just accept it and move on. No need to argue about it.
Foxy Loxy
Guest
Siva you do find it hard to not wander. We were debating about codes WITHIN Australia. Let's stay on the subject being referred to please. In Australia rugby union is the least supported code. It's over. Your 2003 showcase worked brilliantly, for the NRL! It drew a lot of people in, then proved to everyone in Australia that rugby union is a boring kickathon sport. The 2003 RWC was best boost rugby could ever have given rugby league in Australia. Your code has been on the slide in Australia eversince.
Siva Samoa
Guest
i thought those four victorians who made the australian schoolboys team was due to the fact that the combined school rep team made the final of the auctralian state championship.
Crashy
Guest
love that mock concern Republican. Crocodile tears from an AFL fan trying to creat the impression of the Brumbies crumbling from the inside. It saddens me so much that the Swans memberships and TV viewing figures in NSW have fallen so much last year. WIth all their best players leaving and not many local products in the squad, I guess it just means that the system has failed in producing local talent. It really depresses me.
Siva Samoa
Guest
just about every expats are locals or will be locals for a long time. but your right they need to grow the game with the non rugby union community.
Jay
Guest
Dont know about more saffas in melbourne than in perth... also alot of english and argie expat i know of are not big union fans.. they are more into the european football leagues. in any case, its in the long term interests of the rebels to get the attention of locals.
Republican
Guest
Justin Regular development camps in Vic for the past 6 or more years. Numerous Coaching clinics for the VRU Regular Guest speaker appearances to raise profile and funds for Rugby in Vic Support for Vic grassroots by sending teams from the ACT to compete in Vic over the past decade Scolorships to their academy for Vic players. The Brumby Academy currently has 8 Vics and zero locals attending Dropping the ACT from logo to allow scope for Vic patronage and indeed potential ownership of Brumby Rugby which the VRU were clandestinley aspiring to for years, in cahoots with the ARU and Brumby Rugby Brumby exhibition matches in Melbourne with the potential for home matches as well, the latter being quashed due to the Union community in the ACT having none of it This is the tip of the ice berg and something that is no longer relevant in a relocation sense since Melbourne have finally been appeased in this respect however, it does not take away from the fact that ACTRU and Brumby Rugby are the catalyst to Vic Rugby's growth over the past decade and yes, this has been an expedient process on behalf of the Brumby organisation especially when you consider the degenerating grassroots status of a heartland that quite frankly left Vic for dead. WCR No revelations on your part. Why should I expect any different.
Justin
Guest
Not agreeing or disagreeing BK but how do you know?