Brumbies’ Stirling Mortlock (left) and Waratahs’ Lote Tuqiri take to the air in the Super 14 rugby match at Canberra Stadium, Friday, March 13, 2009. The Brumbies beat the Waratahs 21-11. AAP Image/Alan Porritt
At the launch of the NSW Waratahs’ 2010 Super 14 season, officials were happy to play down expectations about how their team will perform this year, with public utterances of confidence. But privately they are convinced that this is the Waratahs’ year.
The sales pitch for Waratahs tickets reflects this, with the punchline: It’s Our Time.
Last year the Waratahs were one try off a finals placing.
They won all three of their matches in South Africa, the only time this has been done by any Australian or New Zealand team. They won more matches than the Crusaders.
But they did not win enough bonus points, and especially early on in the season, played in a negative way that turned off supporters and the media.
This year, the coaching staff is into its second season and has a better understanding of what it takes to complete a successful Super 14 ‘journey.’ They have learned, for instance, that playing a battering ram at inside centre like Tom Carter does not help the continuity game the Waratahs are aspiring to play.
More importantly, the squad has been given an impetus from a series of excellent additions.
The key new signings are Berrick Barnes and the try-scoring machine Drew Mitchell. Barnes will give the Waratahs a world class five-eighths for the first time in Super Rugby. Mitchell should ensure that tries are scored from breaks made by the clever and incisive running of the inside backs.
The pack did well last year and in the trial matches has been over-powering its opponents.
In Benn Robinson, the side has a world class prop who lifts the entire pack with his combination of mongrel, scrumming skills and energy around the field on attack (he has one of the best catch and pass games in the side) and defence.
The Waratahs play only six matches at home. But they also play only two matches in South Africa – against the Sharks and the Bulls.
I am the only Greek I know who is not a gambling man, but the odds against the Waratahs on the TAB Sportsbet of $13 – $1 seem to be so outrageous that a habit of a lifetime might have to be broken.
The TAB Sportsbet market is: $3.50 on the Crusaders, $5 ACT Brumbies, $6 Bulls, $9 Hurricanes, $10 Chiefs, $11 Blues, $13 Waratahs and Sharks, $14 Stormers, $81 Reds, Force, Highlanders, $126 Cheetahs, $251 Lions.
The bookies put their money where there mouth is so you have to respect their judgment on these matters. But they seem to rely a lot on past history with the market they have set.
Their first three sides are three of only four teams (the Blues are the fourth side) that have won a Super rugby title.
The Crusaders, with Daniel Carter and the addition of a new superstar winger Zac Guilford, who should give his team some easy tries, look to be a good bet.
The Bulls, too, with Fourie du Preez, with Carter, one of the great backs in the history of rugby, should be contenders.
But they have lost Bryan Habana to the Stormers. In my view, Habana was about 80 per cent of the Bulls kicking game and it will be interesting to see if the team adjusts and runs more as it did when it annihilated the Chiefs in last year’s final.
The Sharks and Waratahs are relegated to a seventh position in favouritism, behind even the Blues.
My first fearless prediction for 2010 is that the Blues will play some fantastic rugby and some awful rugby that will keep them out of the finals.
On paper, at least, the Sharks and the Waratahs seem like sides that have been unfairly written off by the bookies.
The Waratahs, as I’ve observed, appear to have ticked all the boxes needed for a successful season. The playing list of the Sharks, too, suggests that coach John Plumtree should have a rewarding season.
There are players like Bismarck du Plessis, Juan Martin Hernandez, Adrian Jacobs, Ryan Kankowski, Rory Kockett, Tednai ‘The Beast’ Mtawarira, Odaw Ndungane and Ruan Pienaar. A squad with these players in it should be a finals side.
The Highlanders are a side, too, that could surprise.
Last season they lost a number of matches by 3 points or less. They have a strong pack with the All Black Tom Donnelly certain to be a strength in the lineout. They have some of the most talented and exciting young backs currently going around in New Zealand rugby.
Israel Dagg (what a great NZ rugby name!) is a talented fullback. Robbie Robinson may be as good as Aaron Cruden (the Hurricanes great new talent) as a five-eights. Winger Ben Smith was a surprise All Black on the European tour and then revealed himself to be an excellent, all-round player.
Going back to the Australian sides, I’m surprised that the ACT Brumbies are ranked so high.
Admittedly the addition of Matt Giteau is a plus. But Giteau was not able to lead the Western Force (which had a better squad in my view than the Brumbies) into the finals. There doesn’t seem to be much depth in the Brumbies squad and the pack, apparently, was monstered by the Waratahs in their trial game.
The Western Force was dealt a terrible blow with the long-term injury to Andre Pretorius. The team has some prodigious young talent in James O’Connor and David Pocock. But there is not much depth in the squad.
Part of the fun of the pre-season posturing is to make predictions, knowing that the future rarely unfurls in an expected pattern. So here goes: the Crusaders, Bulls and Waratahs are finals sides, for sure.
The Hurricanes, Sharks and the Highlanders are most likely (in my view) to contest that fourth position.
And the winner of the 2010 Super 14 title? I fall back on a mantra that has served me well in the past when I have been asked for a prediction: “We’re having the tournament to find out the answer to that.”
Game on!
Tah Man
Guest
Only one team can win the competition. Many team have the talent to do so. Let me remind you that the waratahs were FINALISTS in 2008, but after the 2009 season some waratahs supporters got the daggers out. Not everything went our way, and only one team can win the competition. So do we have a public cry about it- about how its not fair. About who is to blame:( SUCK IT UP! Some players feed off strong criticism. Most dont. If your a waratah fan that is already negative at the start of the 2010 season- shut you gob. We have no room for washed up rugby legends (come couch potatoe) who believe its their duty to bag out new teams, new coaches and younger players because ''back in their day everything was better". Get over yourselves. Reds fans feel free to criticise, you are the opponent - but flag your blog as a reds fan so we can fish out the traitors/ sunday supporters among us. If you are a waratahs supporter take heed to your title and support! Look with hope on what will be a ripper of a rugby season or choose another code fat boy!
Terry Kidd
Guest
Agree with most of what has been written so far and as an unabashed Waratahs man I'm full of optimism but expecting disappointment. Spiro, no mention of the Stormers? I would think they area likely finals team and will be very dangerous at home.
Even looser
Guest
Why the hell do we need the backs to score the tries? I'll be very happy with push over tries, ruck & mauls that wear down the oppisiton and see a fatty plop the ball over the line or what ever it takes. That's what I'm wishing for this weekend against Qld anyway. I want to see the Tahs take them on in the forwards & grind them into the dirt. Should be a good game.
Central North
Guest
To Peter below (no "reply" button down there) - what a silly comment. You'd rather NO Australian teams make the final than two? And you'd rather your team have no shot than to be playing for the title against the Tahs? Jeez talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Hawko
Guest
A look at the draw suggests that after what should be a relatively easy win against the Reds (but never is), the Tahs have the Stormers and Bulls away. Stormers are everyone's smokey this year and most people are picking the Bulls to make the four so these two games could easily be lost. Round 4 we have the Sharks who travel well and will already be over here so only our team will be jet-lagged. We do not get an easy game till round 5 and could easily be 0 for 4 by then and virtually done for the season. I hear Joubert has the Reds game and he is often diabolical and hates Baxter to boot. If Kaplan gets a guernsey in the next three games we will be another down. If we are 4 from 4 going into round 5 I will really start to get excited!, but the season could already be over. This season will not be like last year.
PastHisBest
Roar Guru
Yes Craig, well done. Clap...clap...clap. However, to clarify for You...generally when we discuss records in 'super' rugby we are taking the period from 1996 - the start of professionalism. But I do admire your 'research'.
PastHisBest
Roar Guru
"He also sometimes positioned himself outside the traditional No.8 position, packing in between lock and flanker on occasion." Isn't this illegal? "And what exactly are we doing having a shot at the best pack in the comp?" We're not. We're having a shot at some hair-brained scheme. And besides, that is a massive claim about best pack...let's examine that shall we: Palu: Maybe 3rd after Spies and Read. Waugh: Maybe 5th after McCaw, Smith, Brüssow and Pocock. Mumm: Maybe 5th after Elsom, Smith, Kaino and Thomson Caldwell & Jowitt: Geez, maybe nowhere. Any number of locks/second rows ahead. The fuse: Take your pick TPN: Behind Moore, Smit, Du Plessis, Hore Robinson: Possibly the best in the comp. Possibly. Not for my money inthestands.
John allyne
Guest
Thanks Brett for your clarification,
Boerewors_boy
Guest
You can tell the season hasn't started, not a shot in anger, and we're talking abouut the Tahs being contenders again. So many starts, so many dismal endings, choking at the last hurdel, or when the heat is on. They remind me of the Bears of old. The Tahs have to perform on the paddock and survive adversity before the sins of the past are forgotten. The Tahs are perennial underachievers, until they display some consistency and display the mental toughness to win consistently in South Africa and New Zealand, their confidence will be diminished at seson ends whenit counts. Mind you the forward pack looks tougher and more competitive, now if the backs can only score some tries. Bold prediction, if Jowitt stars he will be in Wallabies for 2011.
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Wouldn't it be great, Ads, if we could go back in and edit our posts?
inthestands
Roar Rookie
I think everyone's taking this a bit far and forgetting last year when Waugh often packed in at No.8 on attacking scrums. He also sometimes positioned himself outside the traditional No.8 position, packing in between lock and flanker on occasion. I don't see any problem with this dependent on field position and their first planned play. I think you'll find Waugh will pack exclusively at openside on every defensive scrum, however, and Cliffy would be at No.8. It is of course on defensive scrums where the release of the flankers is more important. And what exactly are we doing having a shot at the best pack in the comp? I'm pretty sure Foley gets the final say in the makeup of how the pack will operate, so I'd guarantee this is his call.
Yikes
Guest
Well the team's been announced. Tom Carter lovers everywhere rejoice (that's you, Bruce!) HSBC WARATAHS 15. Sosene Anesi* (TBA) 14. Lachie Turner (Eastwood) 13. Tom Carter (Sydney University) 12. Kurtley Beale (Northern Suburbs) 11. Drew Mitchell* (Balmain) 10. Berrick Barnes* (TBA) 9. Luke Burgess (Sydney University) 8. Wycliff Palu (Manly) 7. Phil Waugh [c] (Sydney University) 6. Dean Mumm (Sydney University) 5. Cam Jowitt*^ (Manly) 4. Will Caldwell (Sydney University) 3. Al Baxter (Northern Suburbs) 2. Tatafu Polota-Nau (Parramatta) 1. Benn Robinson (Eastwood) Reserves 16. Damien Fitzpatrick (Eastwood) 17. Sekope Kepu (Randwick) 18. Kane Douglas*^ (Southern Districts) 19. Ben Mowen (Randwick) 20. Josh Holmes (Warringah) 21. Daniel Halangahu (Sydney University) 22. Rory Sidey*^ (West Harbour) Also, Rob Horne is starting in the Junior Tahs vs Brumby Runners match in Canberra on Saturday. HSBC JUNIOR WARATAHS 15. Adam D’Arcy (Manly) 14. Nemani Nadolo (Manly) 13. Rob Horne (Southern Districts) 12. Tom Azar (Eastern Suburbs) 11. Peter Betham (Sydney University) 10. Ben Seymour (Manly) 9. Brendan McKibbin [vc] (Eastern Suburbs) 8. Locky McCaffrey (Eastwood) 7. Chris Alcock (Gordon) 6. Dave Dennis (Sydney University) 5. Hendrik Roodt (Gordon) 4. Chris Thomson [c] (Warringah) 3. Dan Palmer (Southern Districts) 2. Ben Roberts (Sydney University) 1. Jeremy Tilse (Sydney University) Reserves 16. Sam Roberson (Sydney University) 17. Ofa Fainga’anuku (Eastern Suburbs) 18. Paddy Ryan (Sydney University) 19. Dylan Sigg (Manly) 20. Ben Coridas (Eastwood) 21. Hugh Perrett (Eastwood) 22. Eddie Bredenhann (Sydney University) 23. Harry Bennett (Eastern Suburbs) 24. Alex Rokobaro (Sydney University) 25. Cam Mitchell (Eastwood) 26. Jacob Woodhouse (Sydney University)
Ads
Guest
that was from 8. Got emoticonned for closing my bracket!
Craig
Guest
Spiro, 'Their first three sides are three of only four teams (the Blues are the fourth side) that have won a Super rugby title.' To clarify for everyone; Super rugby (as it is termed) was started in 1993 as the Super 10. It ran for 3 years. Winners of these were; 1993 - Lions (played as Traansvaal then; played Auckland in the final) 1994 - QLD (played Sharks in the final) 1995 - QLD (played Lions in final) In 1996 the comp was expanded, and Auckland were the first champs. So there have been six super rugby winners; Crusaders, Brumbies, Bulls, Blues, QLD and Lions. And much like your historic research, your current research is also shabby. Brumbies will walk over NSW.
Ads
Guest
i interpreted this in line with the new "intepretation" of the laws about the tackler. i.e. Palu (from 7) would get there 1st, smash the carrier, and then waugh arriving 2nd (from 8) has best chance to steal or disrupt (coming through the gate correctly, on his feet, arriving half a second later). Agree with your comments on the dangers of depowering the shove, wheeling, etc though.
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
As you say PastHis, "if the scrum wheels to the blind Waugh will find himself miles from the next breakdown." And if Phil is just leaning on the scrum with his head out of it looking to break, there is very little that will stop the scrum wheeling.
PastHisBest
Roar Guru
...and following on from this Bruce, if the scrum wheels to the blind Waugh will find himself miles from the next breakdown. Sometimes I think that the Waratah's brains trust (and that's being mighty generous...), are a little too clever for their own good.
Peter
Guest
As a die hard Brumbies fan I would much rather the final be at Christchurch between the Crusaders and Bulls than in Sydney between the Brumbies and the Joeys old boys. The idea of The Brumbies being denied a shot at the title is infinitely preferable to the idea of the Tahs winning.
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Thanks for the clarification, Brett.
PastHisBest
Roar Guru
Indeed Brett.