Queensland’s Anthony Faingaa gets into space during the Super 14 match between the Queensland Reds and the Canterbury Crusaders at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Friday, Feb. 19, 2010. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
As I watched my tips going down the drain in the first three matches of the frenetic Super 14 second round, I remembered the old adage that journalists are prophets of the past.
We can tell you exactly why something happened after it has happened. But we are like everyone else, including alleged clairvoyants, in that we can’t accurately predict the future. And this is as it should be. One of the attractions of big time sports is its glorious uncertainty (to coin a cliche).
The opening match of the second round saw the Highlanders at home against the flaky Blues.
This seemed like an obvious win to the Highlanders who were impressive the week before against the Crusaders. But Jimmy Cowan decided (or was told by his coaches) to kick away all the good ball won for his side by a good pack.
The Blues are much better with the ball in their hands than defending, so Cowan actually was kicking the Blues back into the game. Another kick, an attempted charge down and the Blues were racing away for a 70m try that sealed the match for them.
Match one tip lost.
Then came the upset of the tournament so far, I reckon with a rampant Reds side reducing the Crusaders to a mistake-ridden mess by direct running in the backs and forwards, and some stern defence that forced more turnovers than the Crusaders have surrendered in total for a number of years.
The key to the Reds’ victory was great running from Quade Cooper and Peter Hynes from fullback, and another superb display of passing and running at halfback from Will Genia.
This was the first victory by the Reds, resplendent in their new red colours (which clashed unfortunately with the Crusaders’ away kit), in 11 years. It also meant that my second tip was down the drain.
The Cheetahs defeated the toothless Sharks with the Sharks kicking away good ball as if they were playing under the old interpretations. This was the first away win the Cheetahs have recorded in three seasons. Another tip down the drain.
Then came one of the more remarkable games ever played in Super Rugby, or in any other rugby tournament for that matter. A team that scores 65 points as the Lions did against the Chiefs and LOSES is something that might happen in a T20 cricket match but never in rugby.
The Chiefs, of course, played beautifully with the ball in hand. From the kick-off, for instance, they ran the ball from their goal line, with Richard Kahui making a terrific break, and almost scored at the other end of the field.
But their defence, tactical awareness and kicking were appalling. What is it with New Zealand teams playing brain-dead rugby so often?
Stephen Donald might have scored 32 points but he allowed the Lions back into the game when his side was about 30 points up and 15 minutes to play and altitude had got to his players. Donald put a chip kick through from inside his 22.
The Lions duly regathered the ball, scored and then scored and scored and got within a converted try of an unlikely victory. With time up the Chiefs halfback Brendon Leonard continued the brain dead tactics by kicking the ball up field rather than out. The Lions replied with a final try.
At least I got a point by picking the Chiefs to win.
And another point with my pick that the Hurricanes would defeat the weakened Western Force. In the end this was an easy victory on the scoreboard. But in the 20 minutes after half time the game was in the balance with the Force only 13 points down and on a roll.
The Hurricanes couldn’t get their hands on the ball. When they finally got possession Piri Weepu continued the New Zealand tradition of brain dead play by kicking the ball down field for the Force to run it back at the Hurricanes.
I tipped against the two Australian sides playing in South Africa. I didn’t want to do this but I couldn’t see how the Waratahs could defeat the Bulls, a side that looks like the best in the tournament so far. The Brumbies were competitive for an hour and then started making mistakes and were penalised by the South African referee, Mark Lawrence.
The Brumbies pack, with a nonsense of a forward in Justin Harrison in the second row, is not good enough in the set pieces to allow the Brumbies to be a realistic contender, at this stage in the tournament.
Matt Giteau underplayed his hand at five-eighths. Rocky Elsom had a storming game in the loose. But there is not much firepower in the outside backs. Admittedly, though, the Brumbies won’t face many sides this season, if any others, as strong as the Bulls and as well-coached.
While there was some comfort for the Brumbies in their defeat, the same can’t be said for the Waratahs in their defeat by the Stormers. They have no discernible winning pattern or style of play. They kick the ball away continually when the new interpretations scream out for teams to keep their hands on the ball.
Luke Burgess is embarrassing at halfback with his poor passing and indecision when setting up plays. Again, like the Brumbies, their pace out wide should be there (it is on paper) but there doesn’t seem to be much action from the back three.
After the first three upsets, I had a chat with my son, and publisher of The Roar, Zac. He commiserated with me and advised that I should be more heuristic with my tips in the future.
Heuristic? I looked the word up and discovered that it means creating solutions based on experience, with a sort of trial and error system.
So what does the experience of the first two rounds tell us?
First, teams that keep the ball in hand and only kick when necessary and then for touch will do well. Second, the better teams have strong running back games from their back three. Third, these teams are very fit. One of the players was quoted as saying that he has never experienced such fast rugby as in the first round match.
Fourth, teams need solid set piece, which rules out the Force with Matt Dunning not even being able to time his touch let alone keep his side of the scrum up.
Other heuristic opinions are always to back the the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Stormers and Bulls playing at home (and the Bulls away from home, I reckon too): remember that when Craig Joubert, the referee in the Reds – Crusaders match, referees the home side generally wins.
And that local teams refereed by local referees generally win.
For the record, the local referees next weeks are Chris Pollock NZ with the Crusaders – Sharks: Craig Joubert RSA with Stormers – Brumbies: ‘Aussie’ Steve Walsh with the Reds – Blues: Marius Jonker RSA with Bulls – Waratahs.
Michael H
Guest
Lots of positives for Australian rugby this week. Anthony Fainga'a made a break in the second half. Absolutely thrilling. I always wanted Australia to produce our version of a devastating "Ma'a Nonu", striking fear into opponents. Hopefully Fainga'a can continue to make those linebreaks!!! Totally agree with all of the above about how the waratahs got smashed head-into-the-turf by the stormers. Bulls, Canes, crusaders to win super 14
Howi
Roar Rookie
"Luke Burgess is embarrassing at halfback with his poor passing and indecision when setting up plays." I said this all last year. He made a few impressive RUNS from halfback for the Wallabies and this kept him getting picked for so long. But he NEVER showed that he can pass accurately or quickly - and the Wallabies, amongst other reasons, suffered terribly for it. Surely you pick a halfback on their passing before their running. And now look at Genia. 'Nuf said.
tubby
Guest
waratahs had an awful game plan and executed it badly. barnes clearly under orders to kick for the corners, yet the stormers won 22 out of 23 on their own throw. Did someone not notice a 7 foot tall lock in the stormers line up? one of the highlights of the weekwas watching liebenberg hit the ball up, he's buzzing with energy when he winds up.
Zolton
Editor
Jools, as a fellow US resident, I suggest you sign up for www.rugbyzone.com. I pay a small subscription fee and watch all the Super 14 games live and/or replayed online with great picture quality, Well worth it.
jools-usa
Guest
Spiro, Only game Setanta carried was Force vs Hurricanes & we knew the injury-ridden Force would succumb, BUT Force played hearts out with constant 1st half defence, then some nifty play to earn a couple of tries. What I saw was the Force newbies playing with abandon (fun), happy to get their chance in the limelight & some young talent that bodes well. Jules -USA
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Yeah, that was a weird comment considering the Force were never in that game. Not even for a second.
Mick Gold Coast QLD
Roar Guru
"Giteau ... A real wooden performance from him" An apt description of this most over-rated, overpaid player. Manny Edmonds for the Waratahs a few years back had more talent and he was only one and half dimensional. Giteau has lousy positional sense, can't kick with purpose, fails more and more in defence (last season he was a shocker) and has "I'm a hero with the ball in my hands and I won't pass until I've exhausted all of my limited abilities" syndrome. Glenn Condell below says "10 ... that’s obviously where he wants to play". I say he be told, for the first time in his career, that he is bloody fortunate to be on the park, there is no entitlement and he will play where it best suits the team. Why is this galah afforded protected species status? Does he hold the photos of some senior official doing something dreadful?
JamesB
Guest
NZ teams are so brain dead they have won more Super titles than any other nation. Yeah right!
deepinthought
Guest
"First, teams that keep the ball in hand and only kick when necessary and then for touch will do well. Second, the better teams have strong running back games from their back three. Third, these teams are very fit" spot on, thank you Ewan McKenzie.
stuff happens
Guest
One of the major differences at the start of this Year's S14 is that the SA teams seem far fitter & better prepared than in previous years. In the past they have often had a lazy start in early matches made more difficult by a long road trip soon after. The Stormers forwards bashed the Waratahs at the b'down. Their loosies, including the guy who came on for Schalk, were outstanding.In the first half their hooker Leibenburg (sic) was like a suicide pilot. I'd say the 'Tahs were surprised by the ferocity of some of the exchanges.They'd never admit it but they looked pleased to be off the paddock at the end. The Bulls are really tough to handle at Loftus ( and maybe in lots of other places too ) and it's worth remembering that they were without Bakkies and Roussow and Habana of course is in Cape Town .100 + points in two matches and in both games the opposition did not play badly at all for much of the game.When they hit the road we'll know more but they still look the team to beat.
Atawhai Drive
Roar Guru
Spiro, like you I was 0 from 3 but picked the last four matches, with extra Powerplay point for Hurricanes-Force result. What chance did the Force have? And if depth is so obviously thin on the ground, what chance will the Rebels have of being successful next year? Justin Harrison is well past his best and you wonder if he will finish the season. Phil Waugh's best days are behind him too, new breakdown interpretations or not. The Waratahs were woeful beyond belief and it's hard to see any great potential for improvement. In all this gloom, Rod Davies is a bright light. You either have speed or you don't, and he has it in spades.
David
Guest
Agree, Glenn, Anthony Faingaa was very influential in the Reds' win. He seems to be relishing the opportunity they've given him to start. Good vision and touch with the kick for Digger's try too. Re Giteau, I guess it's just that would have expected more enthusiasm now he's back at the Brumbies, particularly now that he doesn't have such great weight of expectation on his shoulders as he did here in WA with the Force. The backline didn't really click, and again I though he scurried across field too much. I think he's a good player wherever they put him, but a no. 10 needs to be able to control a game better than Gits has ever showed he's capable of. Bernie turned up pretty much every week, with Gits you're never sure what you're gonna get.
Glenn Condell
Guest
'I think you err in not also commending Anthony Faingaa at inside centre – brilliant in attack.' Not too dusty in defence either - I recall at least one clean turnover form his tackling. The other Faingaa made them cough up several balls with the force of his hits. The change has been good for both of them and for the Reds. 'Giteau was either still struggling with injury or confidence' Agreed. He's a 12 but they hired him as the new Bernie at 10 and that's obviously where he wants to play, plus Lealifano looks OK at 12 and Toomua is possibly not up to it, at least not yet, so he'll have to make the best of it. Still, it's early days yet.
David
Guest
I agree with Wavell W. The Reds game was really entertaining. I thought Cooper did really well. He was very enthusiastic, took the ball to the line well and created a lot of doubt in the defenders' minds. The look-away pass to Tirinui was a classic for the first try. Horwell's work to clean out for the 1st Reds try was pretty good, too. The intercept try was pretty cheeky but showed great awareness and anticipation (not to mention skills with the one-handed catch). Fast forward to the Brumbies and it was obvious Giteau was either still struggling with injury or confidence. he look almost overawed. A real wooden performance from him. I've watched all the Aussie games (bar NSW on Sat) and what's most worrying for me after two weeks of S14 is that I can't remember much pilfered ball at the breakdown. If a defending team can't force a mistake then it's likely a try will follow. Weight of possession through uncontested ball retention. There was a real inevitability to the Bulls v Brumbies in this regard. Pity, because as Phil Waugh says in the press today, competition at the breakdown is a vital part of the game, and the interpretation of "tackler roll away etc" is robbing us of the magic of what the good openside flankers do well.
The Other Reds Fan.
Guest
The Reds win wasn't an upset.
Lee
Guest
Lucky me for the Sharks have managed to grab that honour...I don't think I should even watch our woeful backline try front against one run by Carter.
Brett McKay
Guest
true Winston, I wouldn't want to be playing the Crusaders this week...
MACIVER
Guest
This Waratahs backline is the worst selected and coached backline I think I have ever seen from an Australian Super 14 team (I didn’t think the Waratahs backline under Mackenzie would be surpassed for all-round ineptness – but it has). A key to the Waratahs pathetic attacking play is the indecision and lack of communication between Burgess and his forwards (how about passing the ball when a rauling maul has disintegrated rather than being pinned for accidental offside) as well as the backs. Burgess waits forever at rucks or picks it up quickly and runs a bit resulting in him making 5ms and being smashed or passing it to someone standing still. Can’t put all the blame on Burgess though! It is patently obvious to everyone that: 1.Both Beale and Carter are not Super 14 quality starting centres. 2.Barnes is being instructed by Hickey to kick the ball for touch at every opportunity (even 30ms out from the opposition line!) 3.Mitchell has great open field running skills but has sub-standard tackling and passing skills (has anyone ever seen him do a decent pass after he has made a break?) Spiro, re the Reds game, I think you err in not also commending Anthony Faingaa at inside centre - brilliant in attack.
Winston
Guest
The key to the Red's victory was that the Crusaders were truly aweful. Its a bit "brain dead" to say that all these errors were "forced" by these "brilliant" Reds. Lets see if they can put a few wins together and win away from home.
Viscount Crouchback
Guest
Aha, my picks were identical to yours, Spiro. This Super 14 lark isn't quite as predictable as I had presumed. These basketball scorelines don't make it any easier, mind.