The run home to the Super 14 finals

By Snape / Roar Rookie

With four rounds to go, its time to review the hopes of the teams remaining in the hunt for this year’s Super 14 finals. A potential logjam of teams is looming heading into the final rounds.

1st- Crusaders (34)
To play: Force (a), Stormers (a), Bulls (a), Brumbies (h)

A familiar sight at the top of the Super 14 ladder, the Crusaders have a particularly more difficult run home than most. While the South African tour will be difficult, the Crusaders appear to be a side still yet to click into top gear, which is frightening considering they have only lost one game all year.

A final round showdown with the Brumbies appears to loom large for the men from Christchurch, and as always, much will depend upon the likes of Carter, McCaw and Kieran Read.

2nd- Bulls (33)
Lions (h), Sharks (h), Crusaders (h), Stormers (a)

While seemingly going off the boil in recent rounds, strong early performances see the Bulls well placed, especially with all upcoming matches being played in the Republic.

This will however not be a simple task for the men of the highveldt, with their last three matches against potential semi finalists, in particular the apparent spoilers of this year, the Sharks.

3rd- Stormers (33)
Reds (a), Crusaders (h), Sharks (a), Bulls (h)

A side with likely the most difficult run home, but also appearing to be potentially the most threatening to the sides they play. Next week’s match against the Reds may determine much of their finals fortunes.

It is vital to their chances that Peter Grant is able to release the attacking genius of Fourie, Habana and Pietersen.

4th- Reds (30)
Stormers (h), Brumbies (a), Hurricanes (a), Highlanders (h)

For the entertainers and arguably the form team of Super Rugby, anything is possible, from the sublime to the ridiculous. The win over the Bulls may do wonders for this team, showing them they can win whilst not having everything go their way.

The battle between King Giteau and the heir apparent Quade Cooper in round 12 may go a long way to deciding their fate.

5th-Waratahs (29)
Brumbies (h), Highlanders (a), Chiefs (a), Hurricanes (h)

A seemingly revitalised 2010 Waratahs outfit will be counting on the fitness of front rowers Robinson and Polota-Nau, particularly since the loss of go-forward man Palu. While beaten by the Crusaders, they were never disgraced, and the way their opponents played that night showed the respect this team deserves.

The upcoming blockbuster with the Brumbies may go a long way to determining whether this is yet another “what could have been” year for the Tahs. The subsequent New Zealand tour will also provide no opportunity for the foot to be taken off the pedal either.

6th- Brumbies (26)
Waratahs (a), Reds (h), Highlanders (h), Crusaders (a)

So far proving the old adage that a team of champions doesn’t make a champion team, the injury-affected Brumbies must fulfil the much publicised potential this week against the Waratahs.

The shift to inside centre appeared to help, however the loss of Matt Toomua caused Giteau to shift back, and subsequently completely changes their attacking game plan. Whether these injured players return in time may well determine their season.

7th- Blues (25)
Sharks (a), Cheetahs (a), Lions (a), Chiefs (h)

Like the Reds, consistency is perennially the key for this team. If they can somehow scrounge a win against spoilers the Sharks next week, the leaky defences in the following rounds make anything possible, however the Blues own defence is cause for concern.

The return to form of Rokococo, linking up with star centre Rene Ranger, creates a formidable backline with noted hard man Mealamu leading from the front.

8th- Hurricanes (22)
Highlanders (a), Chiefs (h), Reds (h), Waratahs (a)

With no opportunities to slip, the Hurricanes appear little chance of fulfilling the tipsters predictions for them at the start of the year. However, as the Brumbies found out, teams underestimate them at their peril.

The likes of Weepu, Nonu and Tialata up front will ensure that this side competes to the finish, and may prove themselves nuisances to fellow potential finalists.

9th- Sharks (21)
Blues (h), Bulls (a), Stormers (h), Force (h)

While the battle with the Bulls looms largest for the resurgent Sharks, they will need to navigate the equally desperate Blues before even focusing on this clash. The attacking nous of a team not noted for try scoring will be severely tested, with not only wins but bonus points essential.

A side that all opponents will fear, whilst giving themselves a chance against them at the same time.

10th- Chiefs (21)
Cheetahs (h), Hurricanes (a), Waratahs (h), Blues (a)

After being deservedly walloped at home by the Stormers, very hard to see last year’s runners up making a dent at the business end this year.

A disappointing year for a team which showed their promise last year, but may still surprise and cause havoc for the remaining contenders.

The Crowd Says:

2010-04-22T01:18:33+00:00

Hammer

Guest


Yes but it's the broader aspects I'm commenting on in respect to the overall quality level of the competition

2010-04-21T10:21:47+00:00

Wavell Wakefield

Roar Rookie


If we ignore the broader aspects of Super expansion, Hammer, I fail to see the point that the Force flattened all of the other teams. 2006 was a reasonably strong season for the Australian Super sides and the Force only attracted a handful of quality players. In 2006 the Brumbies finished 6th, and in 2007 the Brumbies finished 5th. The only team who struggled in 07 was the Waratahs (who lost the most players if I'm remember correctly?) but in 2008 they bounced back up to 2nd. Further, the Brumbies and Waratahs are currently packed full of stars. The Reds probably have greater quality in their roster than they have had for most of the 2000s, and yet the only side looking good is the Reds. Therefore, the key for me is coaching, selection and age-group development. The Force was always going to be a long-term project and to that extent there are signs of success. A lot of young Australians have been given game time this season, but we must also not forget players like Hodgson, Pocock, Brown & O'Connor.

2010-04-21T01:06:21+00:00

Hammer

Guest


MR - true any of the "top" teams - but go back to S12 and you'd have be able to add "a large majority" into that statement re early 90's - you go too far back ... think of the inception of S12 and that Reds team, the strength of the Brumbies during that time and also a reasonably strong NSW outfit .... expansion, by bring in the force, flattened all of the Aust teams – and flattened the overall competition ... sure there'll be tahs fans that'll say we made 2 finals during the S14 - but realistically they were never in the hunt in either final - their bench strength wasn't up to it .... and what has happened over the S14 is that only 1 Australian side has maintained a level of consistancy and strength (excluding their 1st season) ... What we've ended up with is a host of dull games over the S14 and easy predictions of bonus points games - and the crowds have reflected that ... esp in NZ, but also Australia - look at Qld ... yeah that was a good crowd last Saturday - but frankly I was shocked when I switched on to see banks of empty seats – that’s not the Qld rugby I knew ... if the Reds had been competitive over the life of S14 Lang Park would have been overflowing ... their supporter base has been stripped down to the nailed down fantics .... this weekend hopefully they'll pull in 30,000+ .... but what of next season - when the Rebels recruitment strips away the depth again ... expansion can be a good thing if done properly - but it's just become the default button for SANZAR when negotiation time comes around - i think you play with your elite club level at your peril - look at the bloated edifice that the European Champions League has become – endless boring group stages - the majority of football fans will tell you that it was a far better competition when it was the European Cup

2010-04-21T00:39:12+00:00

MarkR

Guest


Hammer - how has the expansion diluted an elite comp ? I'm of the mind that you could put any of the top S14 terams against any of teh top Heinikin/Magners/French 14 clubs & get a good game. Smae for the bottom placed teams. The true eilte will always be the International side, or would you rather hark back to the good old days when the Reds were 50% of the Wallaby squad & Canterbury were done 44-4 at Ballymore by the Reds (early 90s).

2010-04-21T00:33:53+00:00

MarkR

Guest


Dodgy, welcome to the club, yep it gets narky sometimes but the major benefits of this site I've found to be; Multi-national - you want to know how Sonny Boy is going in France, someone will be watching all his games as they watch the French league, or how does the current England backline look compared to Wales. Experts - no not the keyboard type, but there's guys on iths site who've palyed or reffed at a decent level & can explain for us less informed why things are happening the way they are. As for one-eyed, I'm from Canterbury & have NO idea what you're talking about.

2010-04-21T00:08:43+00:00

Hammer

Guest


The whole expansion agrument probably needs it's own post - I'm of the view expansion has diluted what is meant to be the elite competition - and the inclusion of Rebels further highlights this given the concessions granted them to sign as many as 10 imports ... basically says we don't have enough depth for a competitive team ... development pathways should be set up below Super 14 by the the ARU - the S14 shouldn't be the development ground for fledging players as it devalues the competition which really needs all 3 of the SANZAR partners to make it work ... the short term pain argument is bogus and Aust-centric ... it shouldn't be SANZAR's role to provide these pathways SA could easily have a good argument to say that the inclusion of a 5th team has evened out the competition re travel - but who in gods name wants to be a Cheetahs or Lions fan ... something Reds fans could sympathise with since expansion up to the start of this year .. surely a better travel schedule could have been re-worked This will all perhaps be hidden next year with the conference format - but that also might throw up problems particularly for Aust rugby (esp if, as been suggested by some on here, that we get yet another round of expansion at the end of this TV deal) ... Aust rugby has grown or been kept strong by constant exposure to the top 2 rugby nations in the world ... will the reverting to conferences and playing amongst yourselves (esp if it becomes a a totally enclosed conference) stunt growth and keep up the standards ?

2010-04-20T23:39:31+00:00

Jameswm

Guest


Wavell said "I don’t appreciate your confrontational tone". You're kidding aren't you, Wavell? You gotta chuckle.

2010-04-20T21:48:05+00:00

Justin

Roar Pro


I appreciate value when I see it OJ. As the boys say at 2-1 its not a bet, at 10-1 absolutely. Which games have you penned in the Crusaders winning on their trip? The Force? Probably but they arent without a hope as their record proves.

2010-04-20T19:49:33+00:00

Wavell Wakefield

Roar Rookie


'In 2005 we still had a team make the finals. funny how you ignore the other 5 years previous because that doesn’t suit your argument. Australian rugby is a lot worse than it was pre expansion. 2004 we were super rugby champions from 2000 to 2005 every Austrealian team had made the Semi finals. We had won Bledisloe Cups and Tri nations. Since expansion we have won absolutely nothing and have lost our last 7 matches in a row to NZ. Now thats improving is it? Seriously Wavell the stats tell a copmpletely different story to what you are trying to get us to believe' I'm not ignoring anything, I'm not trying to get anyone to believe anything, and I don't appreciate your confrontational tone. The thrust of the matter is this - you are suggesting that because Australian rugby hasn't achieved any tangible success since 2005 the Western Force team must be deemed a failure. That's a very nascent appreciation of expansion, as I have already suggested. The key problem, however, is that you haven't actually offered any suggestions - not a single one - as to how exactly this expansion has directly harmed Australian rugby? Such a comment simply doesn't make any sense whatsoever. I would offer that most Australian fans would find it a fair suggestion that Australian rugby was on a downward curve following the retirements of Eales and MacQueen. In 2000 & 2001 Australia won the 3N. In 2002, 2003 & 2004 they finished second. In 2005 Australia finished 3rd and in 2006, 2007 and 2008 Australia finished 2nd again. In 2009 the Wallabies finished 3rd. How exactly is that linked to the 2006 expansion? According to you Australian rugby has been a lot worse since the expansion, but the 3N results confirm that after 2001 the test side has been comparatively consistent.

2010-04-20T19:00:32+00:00

Jervois

Guest


In 2005 we still had a team make the finals. funny how you ignore the other 5 years previous because that doesn't suit your argument. Australian rugby is a lot worse than it was pre expansion. 2004 we were super rugby champions from 2000 to 2005 every Austrealian team had made the Semi finals. We had won Bledisloe Cups and Tri nations. Since expansion we have won absolutely nothing and have lost our last 7 matches in a row to NZ. Now thats improving is it? Seriously Wavell the stats tell a copmpletely different story to what you are trying to get us to believe

2010-04-20T11:51:30+00:00

katzilla

Roar Guru


I think people are voting against comments they don't like rather then material deemed offensive or trolling. Im not sure people are aware of how to use the system properly rather then people on a witch hunt against Jervois. I agree with his points but he isn't fluffing which some people may not like and it only takes 3? down votes to get his comment hidden? I'd suggest increasing that limit to 5-6. If a comment is that bad you can be guaranteed that 5-6 people at least will give it the thumb down. Maybe also something on the front page or on the side of threads telling people to vote down Trolls and Offensive material rather then Material they don't agree with.

2010-04-20T11:35:38+00:00

dodgy

Roar Rookie


I am only new to this site but have found it an excellent one and believe it is all the posters who make it so. Thanks Zolton for your clarification of the logistics behind it as I think these are easily overlooked. I think it is the chance for rational debate which attracts many of us. Posters need to remember that their statements lack the usual non-verbal cues which we all use in day-to-day communication and that their written statements can be too easily misinterpreted. This is an unavoidable hurdle associated with the move to communication via SMS, e-mail and internet sites like this. That all said, after my first week of watching this website I have noticed the typical one-eyed parochialism which dominates other opinion sites. While everyone should be able to have their say (and I am as excited by the Reds resurrection as the next supporter). I think the ability for someone to "thumbs-down" a post and for it to be removed on those grounds alone seems unfair to me. These types of forums run the risk of becoming a bit clique (although I appreciate many of you 'know' each other after months of posting) and also a bit 'big-brotherish" in the way things are moderated. Anyway. Hoping I haven't offended anyone with my first post. Looking forward to contributing soon.

2010-04-20T10:48:18+00:00

Wavell Wakefield

Roar Rookie


I'm not having a go at anybody. My tone is calm, polite and rational. Surely a man like yourself would realise that? Please stop attempting to be so confrontational. It's totally unnecessary. Your appreciation of expansion is glaringly narrow. Australian rugby is in no worse a position than it was in 2005, and nobody can say that a lack of success is down to expansion. The rosters of the Brumbies and Waratahs certainly haven't been ransacked by the Western upstarts and as I have pointed out the Brumbies, for example, are doing no worse than in years gone by. Obviously the entire point of expansion was long-term: the sporting development of non-rugby areas, the development of squad players from other franchises, and financial gains.

2010-04-20T10:37:31+00:00

Jervois

Guest


Wavell, if you are going to have a go at Ora, you really should be having a go at me because I wrote the piece he is refering to. I know you and he don't see eye to eye but it really is tiresome that you keep singling him out. What Ora is alluding to from what I gather is the same point I made a few days ago. Whilst the Reds are doing extremely well this year, the Brumbies are by their standards having a shocker with some very hard games to come still. You will not see a day in the near furture in my opinion where two or more Australian teams contest semis let alone a final. Actually out of the Three nations we are the only country not to host a total home final. yes we have hosted a final but not where it was totally Australian.Your last comment to say expansion has not been a failure I would love to know how you come to that conclusion wavell when the stats tell a completely different story. So how about you bury this ridiculous hatchet you have with Ora and I would recommend he do the same because it adds nothing to this forum. nothing annoys me more when provocative posts like yours are allowed through yet, factual and researched posts like the one I made further up the threas are moderated.

2010-04-20T10:02:24+00:00

Wavell Wakefield

Roar Rookie


Ora, FYI: In 2006 the Brumbies finished 6th. In 2007 the Brumbies finished 5th. In 2008 the Brumbies finished 9th. In 2009 the Brumbies finished 7th. There is no parallel of the Reds and the Brumbies. Both teams have both been erratic over the past few seasons. Also, you might want to consider that Australian rugby wasn't exactly on top of the world prior to expansion in 2005, thus it's not accurate to say that expansion has been failure. Clearly, the point of expanding was long-term.

2010-04-20T07:43:08+00:00

MarkR

Guest


Ora, As a Kiwi I can't say I've felt too much pain at Australias tale of woe ! I do know that sooner or later you will have another golden era & I'll be cursing the new Horan/Little/Eales/Greagan again. I just hope it's not at the flipping RWC next year !

2010-04-20T06:18:28+00:00

Ora

Guest


I'm not arguing that MarkR, But he has made a very good point since expansion Australia has won absolutely nothing, Not a Super Title not a Bledisloe nor a Tri-nations. yes the reds are doing well however the Brumbies are starting to trip up. There is no balance in Australian rugby like there used to be that is the whole irony of this. The finals aren't in the bag yet do remember the Blues are only one bonus point win away from the top four as the Reds are only one loss away from dropping out altogether. It will be intersting for sure because potentially all three Australian teams could knock one another out of the finals race.

2010-04-20T06:08:14+00:00

MarkR

Guest


Ora, but once the TN & NH/SH internationals come the only people who remember the S14 are the supporters from teh winning team & on the international stage Australia has done quite well in flashes (WC springs to mind). They beat the Boks last year which was something NZ couldn't do. They should be better this year given how some of the S14 players are coming along. Reds game last weekend was very interesting from the pure passion they put into winning. I think the guy who got the turnover on the bell got slapped in the back of the head by a very happy team mate !

2010-04-20T05:49:31+00:00

Ora

Guest


Interesting I must say, can't say i agree with it to be honest as can be clearly seen from this episode here, posters can manipulate it to suit them. I for one had never given much thought to how poorly Australia had been travelling since expansion, the Stats provided certainly are a wake up call to Australian fans who have thought otherwise.

2010-04-20T04:48:53+00:00

Spencer

Guest


Reds winning in Canberra.

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