With only one round remaining in the 2010 Super 14 there is still considerable uncertainty about three of the semi-final positions. The Bulls are certain to finish on top but there are five teams vying for the remaining three positions.
Intriguingly each of these teams has to play another finals contender. The three relevant games are: Crusaders vs. Brumbies at Christchurch; Waratahs vs. Hurricanes at Sydney; and Stormers vs. Bulls at Cape Town.
The current competition points tally and points for-and-against difference for the five teams are:
Stormers – 39, 166
Waratahs – 38, 81
Brumbies – 37, 85
Hurricanes – 37, 51
Crusaders – 36, 75
The Reds are virtually no possibility of making the four. Mathematically there is only one way they could make it. They would have to win with a bonus point and the Stormers lose without any bonus points, plus they would have to make up the 90 points difference advantage that the Stormers hold over them.
The most likely semi-finalists are the Bulls, Stormers and the winners of the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games. However both the Stormers if they lose and Crusaders even if they win are still vulnerable to a losing Waratahs sneaking past them. Not a likely scenario but it is still in their interests for the Waratahs to win.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points they will finish on 40 points. If the Stormers lose without earning a bonus point they will finish on 39 and thus miss out on the semis given that the Hurricanes and the winners of Brumbies-Crusaders will each finish on at least 40 points.
If the Waratahs lose to the Hurricanes but earn two bonus points and the Crusaders win without a bonus point they will both finish on 40. At present the Waratahs hold a six-point advantage over the Crusaders in terms of points difference, so if both the Waratahs-Hurricanes and Brumbies-Crusaders games had very tight finishes, the Waratahs could just nudge out the Crusaders.
In the semi-finals the Bulls will have a home game against the fourth finishing team, while the second finishing team will have a home game against the third finishing team.
The Stormers just need to beat the Bulls to lock in second place, but they should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points in case they themselves lose.
The Waratahs need to win to secure their place, but will be hoping that both the Stormers and Brumbies lose so that they are assured of second place and a home semi.
The Brumbies are out unless they win, but could reach second spot if they have a bonus point win and the Stormers lose so long as the Waratahs don’t have a bonus point win.
The Hurricanes are in if they win but out if they lose.
The Crusaders are out if they lose but at some risk of missing out even if they win. They should be hoping the Waratahs win or lose without earning the double bonus points.
steve
Guest
any chance of the SFS or Jade Stadium being sold out this weekend?
Just a Fan
Guest
Gutted for the Reds, but lets hope that they can keep to continuity going for next year and sock it to the 'Tahs! That is the only bitter taste is that the Tahs have the opportunity of getting into the semi's.... :(
Just a Fan
Guest
48000 Supporters - the support will be massive. The game has bee sold out for weeks. Don;t write off the Bulls "b" team though. All the Bulls players are match experienced and are amped for the grudge match local derby with both side aiming not just for S14 victory, but for local boasting rights.
Skywalker
Guest
It has been reported that the Bulls are likely to send a "B" team for saturday's game, i still feel the stormers had a bleep, a huge one, and will come good for saturday. The stormers will be playing at home with 40,000 supporters behind them. Losing is not an option!
Vhavnal
Roar Rookie
I assume the hurricanes might scrape in somehow but the crusaders are gone for sure...
ilikedahoodoogurusingha
Guest
Me too.........but I think the Bulls are looking less dominant than earlier in the season, so maybe they might be more vulnerable than usual to an upset........and it would be a big upset!
mudskipper
Guest
Fair call James... I'm thinking along the same path...
mudskipper
Guest
Good point Willy however if they beat the Stormers. The Stormers will have to travel east before going back to SA if they win to play them again... Stormers really need this one or it’s a road too hard to travel… I’m also wondering if the Crusaders have left anyone behind in Christchurch who will be fresh for crunch week 14 match…
Spencer
Guest
Who cares anymore? The Reds are finished...end of the word...end of good rugby. Bryce Lawrence is a cretin!
James D
Guest
To answer the below: Key Questions: Do the Crusaders have anything left in the tank for another hard fought match? As an Aussie i certainly hope not but i feel the way they lost to the Bulls might just fire them up again. Can the Waratahs play like their last match 2 weeks in a row? No - they will either play WAY more conservatively or just plain crap. Can the Bull dominate the Stormers in Cape Town? Yes. I think the Stormers have peaked too early (against the Chiefs) Have the Brumbies really found their zing? No but they are still a danger as there defence does not leak points and they are generally well disciplined and have a good set piece. I think it will finish as below. 1. Bulls 2. Waratahs 3. Brumbies 4. Stormers The final being the Brumbies and Bulls and the winners being the Bulls.
Willy
Guest
If a certain Mr J Kaplan is sent to the SFS on Friday night... Well, I can't be held accountable for my actions.
titus
Guest
Probably the most important question of all is, who will be the refs for this weekend's games?
SamSport
Roar Pro
I remember when the Waratahs did that against the Crusaders in 2002 - was a disaster. I hope the Bulls rest players and then get thrashed. It'll be good for whoever is playing them in the semi's.
Willy
Guest
Another key question: Will the Bulls rest key players ahead of the finals, safe in the knowledge that top spot is wrapped up?
mudskipper
Guest
Nice article BR : Key Questions: Do the Crusaders have anything left in the tank for another hard fought match? Can the Waratahs play like their last match 2 weeks in a row? Can the Bull dominate the Stormers in Cape Town? Have the Brumbies really found their zing?