Geelong are the clear standouts, despite the size of their injury list. In fact, their resilience in spite of injuries, along with James Podsiadly’s arrival and Travis Varcoe’s improvement, shows they may have even gone up a notch.
St Kilda, meanwhile, only have only three losses to their name, proof that they are still a quality side sans Nick Riewoldt. Lenny Hayes has emerged as the new leader in the midfield and Stephen Milne has filled the goal-scoring void up forward.
Collingwood, despite having their off days and nights, round out the top three. Sharrod Wellingham and Ben Ried have come on well, Dale Thomas has found consistency, Luke Ball and Darren Jolly have been fine additions and there’s real pressure on for spots.
So there’s three on the list of premiership contenders that no one should be crossing off just yet. The uncertainty lies with the remaining teams.
Of course, there’s the other top four side, Fremantle, who have overshot expectations completely, despite the fact they are limping into the split round.
The problem, however, is that we’re talking in the context of teams that are capable of winning the premiership, and it’s almost safe to say the Dockers – even if they finish in the top four – aren’t yet worthy of being placed alongside the big boys.
The best case scenario for Freo is that the season plays out like the 2004 season did for both St Kilda and Geelong – they finish top four, “arrive” as a team and cause plenty of headaches come September, but fall just short of making it to the grand final.
That means they are still important though, because a top four finish is critical to any premiership tilt, let alone one that involves conquering the likes of Geelong and St Kilda. Freo could ruin the hopes of sides below them.
Of teams currently outside the top four, the Western Bulldogs are the obvious candidate. They have disappointed to date and we’re still waiting on a “major scalp” – you can read my full whinge on this topic here – but it’s easy to get the sense that if things finally do click into gear, they’ll be a very dangerous team.
Whatever the solution is, finding it right before September would be perfect. Especially because sneaking into the top four is very much a possibility.
The Dogs have maintained a healthy 7-5 record – despite the fact none of those wins came against teams in the top six – and presently sit fifth, only one game outside the top four. For all that has gone wrong in season 2010, they haven’t capitulated on the ladder.
On this basis solely, and ignoring what’s taken place on the field, the Dogs remain on the list of premiership contenders. For now, at least.
Beyond the Dogs, Hawthorn have hit some form of late. Some of their wins have carried dubious significance also, but watching the likes of Buddy Franklin, Luke Hodge and Cyril Rioli hit their straps – like we saw over the weekend – makes a pretty compelling case.
Unfortunately, their start to the season raised too many question marks for my liking. And with the Dogs, Geelong and St Kilda coming up during the next five rounds, a feeling that they are only weeks away from being exposed is pertinent in the back of the mind.
A win over the Cats or Saints might change this, but it’s hard to have the Hawks on “the list” right now.
Carlton, in sixth place, are the other side up for consideration. They’ve beaten Geelong and St Kilda, but you get the sense they won’t be capable of repeating such feats when it’s September and those sides are fully switched on.
If anything, they are in the same boat as Fremantle, chasing that season where they finally emerge and announce themselves to the footy world.
So for now, the list of premiership contenders has been cut to four.
When you think back to the start of the year and how one of the teams originally on that list was Adelaide, it’s a sobering reminder that anything can happen.
Still, it would be mighty surprising to see any side other than the Cats, Saints, Pies or Dogs holding the cup aloft on the last Saturday in September.
Mary Devine
Guest
@karlos Mal Brown's racial slur doesn't rate a mention. He's a buffoon and a private citizen. Johns was an official of the NSW team and his statement forced a leading player to quite. Dipierdomenico paid his price for his disgraceful comments. The AFL is streets ahead of the ARL/NRL on dealing with this situation.
Kick to kick
Guest
I'd agree a Geelong/St Kilda rematch seems most lilkely. But both have been beaten by lesser teams and hot favorites can get knocked out in sudden death finals (Essendon 1999). Even assuming the premier comes from the top four - two of the four are far from settled. Fremantle is running out of puff. Collingwood continues a longstanding tradition of dropping games against teams it should beat . Meanwhile others in the current 8 are up and down. To me the year feels open and unpredictable.
Karlos
Guest
When are you AFL blokes going to discuss the racial slur from Mal Brown? plenty of you wanted to put the stick into Rugby League and Andrew Johns.
Beaver fever
Guest
The way Freo have played this year reinforces to me that it will be possible for them to win the flag next year. Yes i know !! it's always next year, but in this case i think it is pretty on the money.
Republican
Guest
Alas, form would indicate it is a one horse race i.e. the Cats to win the flag in a canter - this 2010.
Michael DiFabrizio
Expert
Fair point. You could also say we all thought of Hawthorn in 2008 the same way we (or at least I) think of Freo and Carlton - saying they are "not ready". But there are some real quality teams at the top right now, and they'd have to seriously fall over for an opportunity for the lesser teams to have a chance.
Kick to kick
Guest
Dangerous prognosticating this far out from the finals. In the last ten years only two teams topping the ladder at the end of round 12 have gone on to win the flag (Essendon 2000 and Geelong 2007). Three premiers - Brisbane 2001, Port Adelaide 2004 and Sydney 2005 didn't figure seriously in calculations at this stage of the campaign. And who remmebers that in 2006 - the year West Coast won beating the Swans in a rematch - Adelaide were the hot form team after round 12 - the Swans who lost by a point were still languishing in 6th - exactly the same position and with the same number of wins as in their premiership year.
Mathew
Guest
Agreed. Last year's top four are the four sides capable of winning it this year. Freo and Carlton, there time will come. Sydney, Hawthorn, etc. just aren't good enough. Brisbane were talked up a bit but they might not make the eight so they're out of it. My tip for the flag would have to be the Cats, though, theyve been looking mighty fine lately. Pods has been recruit of the year for them and they are getting more out of the smaller blokes (Stokes, Varcoe, Byrnes)