I was going to list a whole bunch of facts and figures but in the end I decided it all boiled down to this: last time New Zealand needed to beat the Springboks this badly, Sidney Holland was Prime Minster, New Zealand won their first ever Test match in cricket, and Opo the friendly dolphin died.
This year’s Tri-Nations may not carry the same hysteria as the 1956 tour to New Zealand, but ask any New Zealander and he’ll tell you: beating the Boks is an absolute must.
If you want an example of how things have changed between New Zealand and South Africa in recent seasons, I’ll give it to you plain and simple.
The All Blacks must win this weekend’s Test match at Eden Park. Then they have to turn around and win the following weekend in Wellington.
If the Boks lose in Auckland, they can try again in Wellington. If they lose both Tests, they can pick up a win in Australia and still theoretically win the Tri-Nations, such is the advantage of being indomitable at home, or at least believing you are.
The fact of the matter is that the All Blacks haven’t been challenged like this for a while. Not since 2002, in fact, when the Wallabies held onto the Bledisloe Cup for the final time.
And they’re certainly not used to this much pressure to win at home.
It’s not such a bad thing, really. In fact, if New Zealand had won a few more World Cups, All Black fans would probably enjoy seeing their team challenged.
But they haven’t and so beating the Boks is huge.
The only question is, how do you do it?
Personally, I’d be weary of pigeonholing the Springboks as a team who will kick and chase, bully the All Blacks in the line outs, and turn turnover ball into penalties.
They may try those things, but they could also surprise the All Blacks by running more, especially under the new interpretations which have seen the likes of Ireland and Wales retain possession against the All Blacks for greater lengths of time than in the past.
In my view, it all comes down to how the All Blacks want to play under the new interpretations versus how they want to play against the Springboks.
The All Blacks have shown a desire to counter attack in recent Tests, but this Saturday they’re up against one of the toughest defenses in world rugby; a defense that has frustrated them since year one of Henry’s reign.
The Boks showed last year that they’re as adept at scramble defense as they are at rush defense. The All Blacks were able to stretch them at times, but the Boks showed an amazing ability to dislodge the ball in the tackle, turning the most promising of line breaks into a knock-on advantage.
The All Blacks will be hoping that the two-man tackling style that the Boks used last year to clog the midfield, force turnover ball and kill the All Blacks’ attacking chances won’t be as effective this year under the new interpretations, which demand that the tackler release the ball carrier and allow for more continuity in attack.
South African rugby, however, was so up to speed with the new law interpretations this season that they blew most Super 14 teams off the park with their ball retention and counter rucking ability.
The All Blacks’ other option is to kick for touch and try to turn territory and possession into points.
The idea being that if they can score a few tries, prevent Morne Steyn from kicking too many penalties, and defend like their lives depend on it, they can win the match.
It’s a conservative approach and not in line with how modern All Black sides like to play, but all anybody will remember about this Test is the result and whether the All Blacks won.
In days gone by, the All Blacks would play conservatively in the second half and apply the blow torch in the second, but to be honest I’m not sure that this All Blacks side is good enough to do that.
If anything, controlling the tempo of the game like that is where this All Black side wants to be in time for that annoying tournament thing that they do every four years.
Whatever the All Blacks decide to do, and the indications are that they’ll try to be more physical up front than they were last year, I just hope that they play smarter than last time.
I’ll be massively disappointed if the All Blacks lose, but simply annoyed if guys play like Weepu and Ranger did in the second Test against Wales.
Now, if you excuse me I’m going to go watch clips of Zinzan Brooke kicking drop goals against South Africa.
Beat the Boks!
Rickety Knees
Roar Guru
It worked a treat! Well done ABs!
garyb29
Roar Rookie
Well done Ab's absolute domination the dutchame didn't kw what to do, Arthur or Marthur? They were clueless? Thye AB's stepped up when it counted and left the Dutchies with no answers! At this pace even teh wobblies can wipe them out!! Thanks for playing Bakkies the Dutchies enforcer!! Good call PDV....
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I'm also nervous. Match week tales such a long time.
MarkR
Guest
Jeez Temba you're on fire. I hate to think what sort of comedy routine you & OJ will have going for next years WC. ! BTW - did the octopus know that in NZ we just use them for fish bait ?
TembaVJ
Guest
Yeah I read that, now I feel really stupid for believing in the wrong octopus. :) OJ i am so excited/nervous I was considering asking a doctor to put me in an induced coma till Saturday... just like Ben Cousins. Mabe wake me up at 3pm so I can have a meal and a couple of beers before the game.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Different Octopus ;p
TembaVJ
Guest
No need to blame anyone, boks going to win because that octopus that's predicting the soccer winners picked the boks to win this weekend. Its all over now, sell your house and put it on the green machine. :)
inkosi
Roar Rookie
Already blaming the ref there johno?
johno
Guest
LMAO It's a European ref, actually since Bryce withdrew all the refs blowing the Boks are European refs, and all the AB, Aus games are Saffa refs. It's really a shame that NZ and Aus can't produce as many quality refs as SA. And then SA will get blamed for not playing an open expansive game or something similar and not scoring enough tries etc. But NH refs tend to blow very technical and sometimes they're a bit pedantiac so, can you really blame the Boks for not scoring as many tries if NZ and Aus have all the best refs blowing in their game?
Mr Saunders
Roar Guru
I have the same reservations as you, Rusty. IMO Du Plessis, Olivier, and Kirchner are still weak links at Test level (unless they prove otherwise this season), and the back three seems totally unbalanced - this team seems a bit unwieldy. Personally I would have started BJ Botha and picked Potgieter on the bench as Rossouw isn't exaclty an impact sub. Prior to this selection I was a bit bamboozled as to what the result would be, but now I'm leaning toward NZ.
van der Merwe
Guest
Smit covers loose-head. He played there for a number of games in the S14. CJ is kak, Rusty. Let's not beat around the bush, he shouldn't be in the squad let alone the 22. I'm guessing that Peter believes that the semi-cripple Butch James can bring "experience" to the table. Which is strange, given that he supposedly sees Pienaar as more of a fly half rather than a scrum half...
Rusty
Roar Guru
hmmmm so we are playing with 2 tightheads and one hooker who can play that side. Lets hope nothing happens to Steenkamp. Would have been a little better having CJ instead of Botha on the bench. PdV obviously doesnt expect Bakkies to last and thats why Rossouw is there. Bekker has been in great form but to have two locks on the subs bench seems odd. Would have been better putting Bekker and maybe Potgieter for overall versatility. Thats what this team reeks of...versatility. Maybe PdV is putting too much stock in this rather than picking specialists. I just hope that Ruan ends up on at 9 and Butchie is there for 10 and not 12 cover of which we already have 2 on the pitch. Other then JdV on the wing the team is very solid, everyone is in their normal position and part of an established combo fo sorts. Should be a good game and if the Boks can keep it calm then I would expect their composure to get them over the line
Lee
Guest
No only parts of teh new renovations are open for this game - I think capacity will be 27000 for this game.
TembaVJ
Guest
Looks like SA have about +/- 45kg more in the scrum... kicking game has to be spot on!
kovana
Guest
QUESTION? Is Eden Park completed? Is it at 60'000 capacity now...
TembaVJ
Guest
Reserves: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 BJ Botha, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Ruan Pienaar, 21 Butch James, 22 Gio Aplon. This si a good team, very big and defence focused.
TembaVJ
Guest
15 Zane Kirchner, 92 1.84 14 Jean de Villiers, 103 1.90 13 Jaque Fourie, 105 1.93 12 Wynand Olivier, 93 1.86 11 Bryan Habana, 94 1.79 10 Morne Steyn, 91 1.83 9 Ricky Januarie; 84 1.68 8 Pierre Spies, 111 1.94 7 Francois Louw, 114 1.90 6 Schalk Burger, 112 1.93 5 Victor Matfield, 110 2.00 4 Bakkies Botha, 116 2.02 3 Jannie du Plessis, 121 1.88 2 John Smit (captain), 117 1.88 1 Gurthro Steenkamp. 118 1.86 Total 1581KG with an average of 1.90 player hight….
johno
Guest
Good post OJ.
Frank O'Keeffe
Guest
That was the Reds game plan against the Bulls this year, and it worked a treat.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
It's all about the Boks right now because that's the game this weekend and the weekend after that. I never said that the Springboks would win this weekend, my concern is whether we can hit back by winning two games in a row. If we do that then we'll be in a good position to win the Tri-Nations.