The Springboks will beat the All Blacks in Wellington this weekend. But this will be as a result of experienced players rebounding after an embarrassing loss rather than out-playing the opposition with attacking flair.
The All Blacks are once again the most dominant force in world rugby, and look the most prepared for their home World Cup next year.
However, the second test in the Tri-Nations series provides the Springboks with the perfect opportunity to avenge their loss in Auckland.
Not only are they desperate to win in Wellington, they’re now buoyed by the fact that Bakkies Botha won’t be there to prematurely sink the 8 ball (lose the game before it’s over).
The Springboks were left surprised after the All Blacks dominated them for the majority of the first Test, their patience and measured game plan was unable to gain traction due to the sin binning of Botha.
Many people have criticized the ability and mobility of the Springbok forwards; however, neglect the fact that they were playing a man down during a crucial part of the match.
Players like Pierre Spies assumed the majority of the workload, which obviously wore them out and stifled their attacking ability.
Spies often looked lethargic, and for good reason. He had been forced to go into the red-zone and failed to recover which extinguished his impact on the match.
When Botha returned, his fire had gone out.
He looked embarrassed and concerned, obviously still thinking about leaving his team high and dry, but also about the fact that he would inevitably be suspended for his head butt on Jimmy Cowan.
The Springboks continued to play as if they had fourteen men since Botha was having almost nil effect: lumbering from to the breakdown with his tail between his legs.
It was obvious his head wasn’t there which affected the team as a whole.
Peter de Villiers would have been better off replacing Botha, his impact on the match complete after only a few minutes of play, and giving the man who would inevitably fill the role during his absence an opportunity to get acquainted.
The Springboks have since had a week to think about it, regroup and decide on a strategy to which will allow them to play their own style of rugby.
They were exposed against the All Blacks, however. The All Blacks style and tempo is something that I think they will struggle to replicate week in week out.
The high-octane rugby, which the All Blacks played, is also high risk.
A motivated and angry Springboks side will force them into mistakes and suffocate them with possession. Morne Steyne will pile on the points from anywhere and everywhere, which will allow the Springboks to play from the front.
This high-octane style of rugby is all well and good when you’ve got your noses in front, however, could prove difficult to execute when under pressure from a physical and motivated Springbok defence.
The All Blacks will then be forced into a knife fight that the Springboks will inevitably win, even without Botha.
There’s no doubt the All Blacks can continue to play with the attacking venom shown in the first Test. However, it will take some time to develop and get used to.
The Springboks are a formidable outfit. I just hope they don’t bully the All Blacks into a style of game they can’t win.
6pathsofpein
Guest
Considering there have been only 3 WCs in the professional era it's hard to see how that stat can be used for anything other than a stat. It shows nothing about the teams that have won it nor anything about the teams that haven't.
agunzi
Guest
Hey paddy, how'd that prediction work out for ya? LOL I predict you will again make a totally wrong prediction :P
Stormer
Guest
Hey SPARKLESS, get a life mate. The boks lost again 2nite but it was much better. U aussies r liking ur lips for WHAT, arse whipping i think. Things change on a dime.
abnutta
Roar Guru
Penalty count 12-5 in South Africa's favour.
Jerry
Guest
I'd say Bakkies not getting a red card in the first minute of the match was a bit of luck for the Boks...
johno
Guest
The AB's were playing at 110% last week and had all the luck! Bakkies was pulled back and no penalty or yellow card awarded. Then he was sin binned for a 50/50 offense. the bounce of the ball went NZ's way on three occasions, and even the charge down of a Carter kick landed happily in a AB lap. oh, that scew throw in to Kieran Reed wasn't picked up right on th AB line.
nicksa
Guest
RIN this was a big game, dont kid urself...
Sparky
Guest
Both second rate teams, Wallabies to decimate both... and i mean that in the ancient rome context. 2.2 players on both the All Blacks and South African teams will die after playing the wallabies each and every match from here going forward. Who doesn't love a differing opinion?
zhenry
Guest
tis tis, NZ coach and all, for my money if a team wins a tri-nations and is the statistical World Champs that is worth a bucket full of one offs. No wonder your ex Soccer Australia CEO doesn`t want Australian Rugby to go down the fifa road.
allblackfan
Guest
This game could turn on a dime, as they say. One slight mistake either way could well determine the outcome. Both sides will be eager to pounce on the slighest loose ball, stray kick or brain explosion. BRING IT ON!!!!!
katzilla
Roar Guru
Quade Cooper doesnt come in XL Mattam. You'll just have to be happy with that export as is.
Sylvester
Guest
To win, this Boks team will either need to completely monster the AB forwards, discover a backline or rely entirely on AB mistakes. I can't see any of these scenarios playing out.
mattamkII
Guest
the size of your exports and GDP? thats a joke lads.
Ben J
Guest
I did not watch the Eden Park test but a thought that came up is that in order for the Boks to win in NZ they have to play at 110% and have a bit of luck. New Zealand have shown with their 9 titles that they only have to play at 80% to win. That is unfortunately the way that it is historically. AB's by 15 (and that is with the Boks being lucky)
Jerry
Guest
3 times. 98, 08 & 09.
katzilla
Roar Guru
I agree with both of you RE: Vermuelen. I can't for the life of me understand why he isn't given a go considering how well he went in the S14. Vermuelen V NZ Spies V Australia
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
agreed....but.... Their backs looked threatening every time the Blacks kicked away good ball, and I thought at the time that the Cowan/Carter kicks were a shade aimless. However the correct tackling brought them to a halt. Then tactics changed, Piri did not kick once and you stayed on the front foot.
jiggles
Guest
I commented on ABs 3N form not WC form…. as this was the point that OJ was making, about questioning their form in the 3Ns, which is the current tournament we are talking about in the context of this thread, as a little silly…..
Sam Taulelei
Guest
Ha, ha Rin, good one Then what will the world use to taunt us Kiwi's with when the All Blacks eventually win another world cup?
Sam Taulelei
Guest
I agree with you Ben. Before the All Blacks scored their first try, the Boks were pressing hard in the All Blacks 22 metre and had a potential scoring opportunity in the corner. There were a couple of other times during that first half when the Boks backs threatened to break through out wide but superb covering tackles from Conrad Smith around players ankles just prevented any breakout. When they get over the advantage line the Boks can definitely hurt you. There may not be as much subtlety to their play but it will be a tough night for the All Blacks if they start to fall off their one on one tackling.