Mediocrity in the battle for seventh and eighth

With the last month of the home and away season upon us this week, the run home for the clubs in contention is all important. At the top of the table, Collingwood and Geelong look pretty safe to secure first and second and ensure Melbourne based ‘home’ finals in week one.

Fremantle is the only ‘interstate’ side in the mix. But they might be better off finishing fifth and hosting a Subiaco final in week one rather than sneaking into fourth, only to face up to a rampant Geelong or Collingwood at the MCG.

The Dockers look safe in the top five.

Would the Dockers contemplate ‘throwing’ a game to ensure a fifth place finish?

Hawthorn’s shock loss this week just gone to Port has thrown their hopes of a sneaky top four spot out the window. Now, their primary imperative is to not finish seventh or eighth and risk facing Fremantle at Subiaco.

The biggest battle is still for seventh and eighth.

The incumbents are Carlton and Sydney, both with a 9-9 record and percentages a tad over 100. Where do their threats come from?

North Melbourne sit ninth, one game out, but with an almost 20 percent chasm to bridge. The run home takes in hosting Freo, then S tKilda, followed by a trek to Subiaco for West Coast, and finally the Dees at the G at 4.40pm on the last Sunday.

Alas for the Roos, they have been struck down by injury and were hit hard the last two weeks, which included a pivotal loss to Essendon by three points. Needing to win two more games than either Carlton or Sydney due to the precentage gap.

Melbourne are 1.5 games behind, and whilst percentage doesn’t come into it, the Dees also need to win two more games than either Carlton or Sydney. The Dees’ run home is Richmond, Hawthorn, Port (away) and North.

Most of these games seem winnable for Melbourne.

And then to Carlton and the Swans.

The Blues have Essendon, Richmond then Geelong and Freo at Subi. The Blues won’t be confident of any of these games, but they may pray that Freo might seek to ‘throw’ the Round 22 game at Subiaco to ensure a fifth place finish and a home final in week one.

The Swans host Hawthorn (round 19) and the Doggies (round 21) and take on Freo at Subiaco and the Lions at the Gabba.

There’s every chance still that one of Carlton or the Swannies might only win one from the last four. There’s still a chance that either of Melbourne or North, or even both, will be fighting for a finals spot at 4.40pm on Sunday, August 22.