Australia have been priced $1.22 favourites to win this year’s Four Nations tournament, which is an insult and vast underestimation of New Zealand’s recent competitiveness in international rugby league.
With the NRL grand final imminent, the focus is yet to shift onto what will be a very exciting Four Nations tournament. Perhaps the most compelling reason to get excited about this year’s tournament is the continued improvement in competitiveness between the nations involved, especially between Australia and New Zealand.
Bookmakers, however, seemingly do not agree that the gap in international rugby league is closing. Bookmakers have priced Australia as $1.22 favourites to win the 2010 Four Nations followed by New Zealand at $6, England at $9 and PNG at $101.
I plan to spend the rest of this article debunking these odds and stating my case as to why New Zealand fans should be getting excited and why the astute punter should be investing their hard earned on New Zealand at $6.
In their last 15 appearances, dating back to the ANZAC test of 2005, the ledger stands at Australia 382 points to New Zealand’s 259, an average score line of 25-17, resulting in 10 Australian wins to New Zealand’s 3, with two draws (including Australia’s 2006 extra time victory). On the face of it, these do not seem like particularly compelling statistics for New Zealand’s chances.
However, New Zealand have always struggled in one off Test matches such as the ANZAC Test and once you remove these from the equation, the story reads very differently.
In the last nine tournament matches between Australia and New Zealand dating back to the 2005 Tri Nations, the ledger reads: Australia 192 points to New Zealand’s 193 for a rounded score line of 22-22, resulting in four Australian wins to New Zealand’s three with two draws.
Of the four major tournaments played since 2005, New Zealand and Australia have shared the trophies with two each (New Zealand: 2005 Tri Nations, 2008 World Cup versus Australia: 2006 Tri Nations, 2009 Four Nations).
An additional consideration worthy of discussion is the relative strength of each squad. New Zealand has historically struggled with injuries due to less depth than the Kangaroos.
This year, however, this trend seems to have reversed. Australia has seen their ‘best’ backline decimated, with Justin Hodges a yearlong absentee, Greg Inglis undergoing end of season surgery, Israel Folau defecting to AFL and Thurston under lingering injury and disciplinary clouds.
Comparatively, the Kiwi’s will find themselves with a near full strength squad.
Also, New Zealand has a team filled with form players. They had two players in key positions poll in the top six of the Dally M in Marshall and Luke, SKD who was unlucky not to win centre of the year, the beast Manu Vatuvei in top form as well as the strongest forward pack available to them in many years including Moi Moi, Asotasi, Mannering, Blair, Eastwood, Harrison, Waerea-Hargreaves, Nuuausala, Sika Manu and Jeremy Smith.
A final consideration is that New Zealand plays all their pool matches in New Zealand, giving them a significant advantage in, at the very least, qualifying for the final which is being played at Suncorp stadium, a venue which should hold no fears for them being where they convincingly won the 2008 World Cup.
In summary, New Zealand have a near full strength team, have players in key positions in form, have the luxury of playing all of their qualifying games at home and will most likely be competing against an Australian side with an all-new backline.
Australia at $1.22?
I smell an upset.
bilbo
Guest
Um....they are world champions? Are you aware of that?
Republican
Guest
Aust is home away from home for the Kiwi given the huge expat factor, however this is not so for Oz sides playing in hostile NZ.
john
Guest
Love to see Gaz and Coops back in the Kangaroos jersey. Do you think it will happen though realistically?
The Grafter
Guest
Same ground as the last World Cup Sun Coaster. Im not sure Suncorp holds the same edge as the old Lang Park with the familarity of most players in the NRL.
sunshinecoaster
Guest
There is a little bit of a fasle perception in Australia with how good the Kangaroos actually are, its probably driven by the commentators from channel nine etc and former players who just presume its the same as it always has been Truth is that the Kiwis have closed the gap big time and never get a home test hardly ever, you have to wonder if more tests in recent times had been played in NZ what the results would have been So with the final being played in Brissy its yet again on Australias terms, i guess the odds reflect that
Republican
Guest
Oikee Chill what? I am no dude either mate. I am not death riding the code i just think it's a two horse race and always will be. Credit to the Kiwis they are now better than us at League with Only approx 5mill to draw on. This doesnt say much then for the status of Aust League, 20mill pop, does it?
HunterFujak
Roar Rookie
Thurston, Lyon, Jennings and M Minichello got ruled out yesterday too. Taking the list of centres out to: Hodges, Inglis, Folau, Lyon, Jennings. By my reckoning, that takes Australia to its 6 and 7th preference in centre pairing of Gasnier and Cooper?...Still not a bad 6 and 7th choice! but still nowhere near as lethal as Australia's best team in recent years...
oikee
Guest
Republican. mate, come on, the 4 nations battle is a series not to be missed. I dont know why you are so yesterday, last year, another time, get with it my son, join the party. The best international game i have seen in the last 10 years was the kiwis/kangaroos at the little stoop. And the final between the poms (yes the poms) and Kangarros was a great game. You learn from these games, at least the Kangaroos dont play soft, i enjoy them giving other countries a beating, it not only keeps them on their toe's, it improves them. You want fast furious, big hits, massive battles, then rugby league provides this, and the Kiwis have already won a unwinnable cup. I said the other day, if someone does not like the Kiwis, just say so, then move on. I dont death-ride other sports, yes i tell unwanted truths, but i dont death-ride them. chill dude.
djfrobinson
Guest
I am a kiwi and i'm well aware of how badly New Zealand does at league.
Republican
Guest
Because it's all about punting which is about bookies making a quick qiud through deception and trickery, wheras rationale has naught to do with it. The Kiwis will win the 'Two Nations', no worries especially with all those top Ozzies out injured and because they always want it more than we do, while the remaining sides make up the numbers in a tokenistic fashion.
The Grafter
Guest
NZ certainly are overs. Pity young Fouran is out, but I would like to see Fien step in at halfback. NZ back 3 should be Perrett, Nightingale, Vatuvai. SKD in the centres having a big year spells danger for England and Oz. Got our tickets for final awhile back. Sales must be slow as there was a fair bit of promoting it at Fridays Titans/Roosters game.
Danesh
Guest
Hunter, you have articulated my thoughts perfectly. Congratulations on such a well constructed argument that prosecutes its case with solid statistical data and qualified opinion and intuition. I look forward to more of these blogs so that an average punter like myself can better understand the relationships between a variety of sporting variables and betting odds. Thank you.
M1tch
Roar Guru
Bookies just expect Australia to win..its good value on the kiwis and also england
Fez's are cool
Guest
That is pretty stupid. The Kiwis are getting much better. I'd say Australia is still the team to beat, but NZ is not far off the pace these days. $6 is a great return. I'll get on that.
djfrobinson
Guest
It's simple. New Zealand suck at rugby league.
GC Bulletin
Guest
Made a good bit of coin with the kiwis at the 2008 world cup, will be backing them again strongly this year-barring injury to Fien or Marshall
Paul J
Guest
You're usually a good laugh jus.
Chris
Guest
I agree oikee, and I've got my tickets for the finale too.
oikee
Guest
Already mentioned NZ are the team to beat. Take the 6 dollars. Like taking candy from a baby. :) I think another forward has dropped out, i read somewhere, but when you look at their replacements, wont matter. Eastwood is coming back, and they have the guy from Canberra also, Bronson Harrison? You can forget the Kangaroos being favourites in future. I watched the Toyota cup this year, the Kiwi talent is flooding through in alot of teams, not just the warriors, and if Tonga got their act together, they could also be a force along with Fiji. A new world order for international rugby league is not far off. And dont write the poms off either, do so at your own peril, it could be England,NZ final, either way, i have my tickets booked for the final, i am excited no matter who makes the final. Also looking forward to see PNG, they really give 100%, i respect that.
jus de couchon
Guest
Its a bookmakers nightmare. A 3 horse race can throw up all manner of temptations to a match fixer. The Kiwis probably the best odds but in all likelyhood a game with limited International exposure can have few chances for its players to improve their lot and match fixing is almost as inevitable as a Pakistani betting scandal.