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Australia have been priced $1.22 favourites to win this year’s Four Nations tournament, which is an insult and vast underestimation of New Zealand’s recent competitiveness in international rugby league.
With the NRL grand final imminent, the focus is yet to shift onto what will be a very exciting Four Nations tournament. Perhaps the most compelling reason to get excited about this year’s tournament is the continued improvement in competitiveness between the nations involved, especially between Australia and New Zealand.
Bookmakers, however, seemingly do not agree that the gap in international rugby league is closing. Bookmakers have priced Australia as $1.22 favourites to win the 2010 Four Nations followed by New Zealand at $6, England at $9 and PNG at $101.
I plan to spend the rest of this article debunking these odds and stating my case as to why New Zealand fans should be getting excited and why the astute punter should be investing their hard earned on New Zealand at $6.
In their last 15 appearances, dating back to the ANZAC test of 2005, the ledger stands at Australia 382 points to New Zealand’s 259, an average score line of 25-17, resulting in 10 Australian wins to New Zealand’s 3, with two draws (including Australia’s 2006 extra time victory). On the face of it, these do not seem like particularly compelling statistics for New Zealand’s chances.
However, New Zealand have always struggled in one off Test matches such as the ANZAC Test and once you remove these from the equation, the story reads very differently.
In the last nine tournament matches between Australia and New Zealand dating back to the 2005 Tri Nations, the ledger reads: Australia 192 points to New Zealand’s 193 for a rounded score line of 22-22, resulting in four Australian wins to New Zealand’s three with two draws.
Of the four major tournaments played since 2005, New Zealand and Australia have shared the trophies with two each (New Zealand: 2005 Tri Nations, 2008 World Cup versus Australia: 2006 Tri Nations, 2009 Four Nations).
An additional consideration worthy of discussion is the relative strength of each squad. New Zealand has historically struggled with injuries due to less depth than the Kangaroos.
This year, however, this trend seems to have reversed. Australia has seen their ‘best’ backline decimated, with Justin Hodges a yearlong absentee, Greg Inglis undergoing end of season surgery, Israel Folau defecting to AFL and Thurston under lingering injury and disciplinary clouds.
Comparatively, the Kiwi’s will find themselves with a near full strength squad.
Also, New Zealand has a team filled with form players. They had two players in key positions poll in the top six of the Dally M in Marshall and Luke, SKD who was unlucky not to win centre of the year, the beast Manu Vatuvei in top form as well as the strongest forward pack available to them in many years including Moi Moi, Asotasi, Mannering, Blair, Eastwood, Harrison, Waerea-Hargreaves, Nuuausala, Sika Manu and Jeremy Smith.
A final consideration is that New Zealand plays all their pool matches in New Zealand, giving them a significant advantage in, at the very least, qualifying for the final which is being played at Suncorp stadium, a venue which should hold no fears for them being where they convincingly won the 2008 World Cup.
In summary, New Zealand have a near full strength team, have players in key positions in form, have the luxury of playing all of their qualifying games at home and will most likely be competing against an Australian side with an all-new backline.
Australia at $1.22?
I smell an upset.
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