Kangaroos' Four Nations victory not a sure thing

With the NRL season now over, the complete 24-man Kangaroos squad has been announced ahead of the Four Nations series, beginning in late October. With injuries threatening to rule out some of our best, and with some notable exclusions, Australia could be vulnerable to some surprising defeats.

In contrast to previous years where Australia has dominated its opposition, this year’s Rugby League Four Nations tournament is shaping up to be one of the most competitive yet.

With the English Super League growing in popularity, and some of the NRL’s best being lured over to play, England’s national team cannot be underestimated.

Young guns like Darrell Goulding and Sam Burgess will have a lot to prove, while more experienced English representatives like Adrian Morley, Stuart Fielden and Gareth Ellis will complete what will be a bruising forward pack.

With Burgess, Ellis and the Melbourne Storm’s Gareth Widdop all playing in the NRL, the poms will also have the advantage of some inside knowledge.

Papua New Guinea probably won’t have a realistic shot at the Four Nations title this year, but the Kumuls are definitely improving, and should be hoping to put in some strong performances nevertheless. After all, they only lost by 12 against the Australian Prime Minister’s XIII just last month.

The Australian team are overwhelming favourites at $1.20 to take out the series. However, these are surprisingly short odds considering that the 2010 Kangaroos will look a lot different to that of last year’s winning team.

The list of unavailable former international representatives from Australia include vital game-breakers like Greg Inglis, who is undergoing a shoulder re-construction, Israel Folau, who defected to AFL, and Jonathan Thurston, who was ruled out due to an ankle injury, as well as Justin Hodges, Michael Jennings and Josh Morris, who are all out injured.

Furthermore, despite a solid season, 2010 Premiership-winning players Ben Creagh, Mark Gasnier and Matt Cooper were controversially snubbed by selectors.

But there is still some hope for Australia.

Darren Lockyer has been confirmed as captain and five-eighth of the Kangaroos, after recovering from the rib injury that halted the Broncos’ run to the finals this season.

The selection of Jarryd Hayne, Darius Boyd and Billy Slater, all of whom are in great form, will provide some blistering pace in the backs, while the fairytale story continues for Todd Carney, with his selection in the Kangaroos squad.

Although an injury he sustained in the Grand Final against St George-Illawarra threatened to keep him from playing, Carney will be itching to put in a good performance in a representative jersey, should he be given the chance ahead of likely first-choice half, Cooper Cronk.

Though Carney’s performance in this year’s grand final was slightly disappointing, his growth as a player is hard to overlook. He’ll also be hoping to make an impression on selectors in the hope of securing further representative roles in the future.

Unfortunately for the Kangaroos, the success of the Roosters this year has also seen their New Zealand expats given representative honours. Human wrecking balls, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves and Frank-Paul Nuuasala, agile centre Shaun Kenny-Dowall and zippy back Sam Perrett will all be a handful for the Australian forwards.

The Dragons Premiership victory also resulted in Jason Nightingale, Nathan Fien and Jeremy Smith being selected to play for the Kiwis.

With the memory of New Zealand’s 2008 World Cup final win over Australia fresh in everyone’s minds, the Kiwis will be entering this tournament confident of another upset.

Though not favourites, the combination of experienced players like Lance Hohaia and Manu Vatuvei, with new blood Antonio Winterstein and Lewis Brown, New Zealand look threatening.

And let’s not forget the Benji-factor. Marshall and Fien are most likely to pair up in the halves in what should be a scintillating combination come game day. Expect many no-look flick passes.

The Kangaroos will play Papua New Guinea in their opening match at Parramatta Stadium on October 24, England on October 31 at the brand new AAMI Park in Melbourne, and New Zealand on November 6 at Eden Park in Auckland.

This is not a one-horse race.

Australia must overcome some serious challenges from these sides if they are to win the Four Nations trophy once more and continue their dominance in international Rugby League.