The Melbourne Cup was first run in 1861. What was happening in the world in 1861? The really big news then was that the American Civil War between the Union states and Confederate states was entering its seventh month of conflict, in a war that would last almost exactly four years to the day (1861-65).
Over in Europe the United Kingdom of Italy under King Victor Emmanuel II was declared. All except Rome, which joined about a decade or so later.
Here in Australia, colonials were coming to terms with the tragic death of intrepid explorers Burke and Wills.
So this was the backdrop to the running of the very first Melbourne Cup (MC), which was won by one of our very best horses to win that race – Archer, lumping 9st 7lbs, or 60.5kgs in the modern terminology. Just for good measure, Archer won again the next year (1862), thus becoming the race’s first dual winner.
A feat since emulated by only 4 other horses – Peter Pan in 1932 and 34, Rain Lover 1968/69; Think Big 1974/75, and Makybe Diva 2003-04-05.
Despite the occasional deluge and two world wars, the Melbourne Cup will enjoy its 150th consecutive running. The race from memory has been postponed on two occasions but never cancelled. That’s a mighty achievement.
The MC is run on the first Tuesday of November, a tradition dating back to 1875, that has seen only a few interruptions, notably due to WWII, when the Cup was run on Saturdays.
Britain gave us the modern thoroughbred racing system, the thoroughbred lineage, the weight for age scale, basically everything familiar to us with flat racing today. So naturally, the English classics (St Leger, Oaks, Derby, 2000 Gns, 1000 Gns) all predate the MC, but not much else.
The American triple crown races all came after the MC – the Kentucky Derby in 1875, the Preakness Stakes in 1873 and the Belmont Stakes in 1867.
More recently, the world’s most prestigious horse race – the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – only began life in 1920. The almost equally prestigious King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes didn’t kick off until 1946.
More recently, the world’s most valuable horse race – the Dubai Gold Cup – only came into existence in 1996. The Japan Cup was first run in 1981, while the prestigious Breeders Cup multiple race two day program in the US was first run in 1984.
Old-timers wouldn’t recognise the MC today, and that’s a good thing. It’s now a quality handicap, with the weights between the best and ordinary horses compressed. The limit weight now is 50kgs (7st 12lbs).
Applied retrospectively, it would wipe out 40% of previous Cup winners who carried less than 50kgs to victory. You see, that used to be one of the “tricks” of finding the Cup winner in the past – looking for the horse with good form, who had escaped the handicapper’s attention, by being allocated a light weight.
Not any more. In this year’s cup, the weights will range from a top weight of 57kgs (Shocking) to about 52kgs. We can thank the introduction of overseas horses for this. When Vintage Crop saluted the judges in 1993 for his Irish trainer Dermot Weld, the Cup was positively transformed in a way not immediately obvious.
Today, almost every horse in the Cup reeks of quality. There is hardly a donkey among them. Picking the winner just gets harder. Based just on Australian racing, this year’s Cup will feature a previous Cup winner, as well as winners of the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Sydney Cup, Brisbane Cup, Australian and Victorian Derbies and Australian and Victorian Oaks. The field simply oozes class, befitting its 150th consecutive running.
The truth is, trawling through the history of the MC, about 80 per cent of cup runners in the past have been donkeys, including unfortunately a few too many of the winners. But that’s the beauty of the Australian egalitarian way.
But also, it’s the quality of the remaining 20 per cent and the rubik’s cube range of possible outcomes, that makes the Cup so enchanting and compelling.
Even famous American writer Mark Twain, after visiting Australia and witnessing the 1895 MC, was moved to write: “Nowhere in the world have I encountered a festival of people that has such a magnificent appeal to the whole nation. The Cup astonishes me”.
So who will win the Cup on the first Tuesday in November?
Firstly, forget the experts, hardly a single one of them predicted that Shocking would win last year. They get paid good money to predict winners, just like consultants, and they have as little genuine idea as consultants!
Be guided by history. Traditionally, the most accurate form guide is the Caulfield Cup. Look for horses running home strongly at the end of that race. The best three runs from the Caulfield Cup were by Shocking (4th), Manighar (5th) and Mr Medici (6th).
They will be up there at the finish. Also, study the results from the Mackinnon Stakes and Lexus (Hotham Hcp) this Saturday. Again, it’s not necessarily the winner we’re looking at, but those horses that finish strongly to the line.
There are usually races that come into and out of vogue as Cup pointers. In recent years, the Geelong Cup has become a most useful guide. This year’s winner Americain is another to put into your portfolio.
The experts say So You Think won’t run the distance. But he’s bred on both sides of his family to be a stayer. The experts also said So You Think’s former stablemate Saintly couldn’t run the distance, but he proved them wrong.
In 1996, Saintly won the Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup double, something So You Think will be attempting to emulate in 2010.
We are often shaped by our experience from the entry point into any event, or sport. My entry point into the Melbourne Cup was as a nine year old back in 1965, when my folks asked me to tip a horse for the big race.
For some reason I happened to like the name Light Fingers. It also happened to become Bart Cummings first ever of a current 12 Melbourne Cup winners. I’ve been with Bart his whole MC journey, and I’ll be having a quiet wager on So You Think.
Finally, to round out my top 6, I’ll throw in Shoot Out. So there you have it – Shocking, Manighar, Mr Medici, Americain, So You Think and Shoot Out.
I will be very surprised (six days out) if the winner comes from anywhere else. But then, what would I know.
Geoffrey Tobin
Guest
Wikipedia mentions just a small sampling of those descendants of Carbine that were tolerable nags. :) "Nearco, Northern Dancer, ... Seattle Slew, Ballymoss, Shergar, Arkle, Never Say Die, Mr. Prospector, Nasrullah, Nijinsky II (winner of the UK Triple Crown), Royal Palace, Better Loosen Up, Sir Ivor, Phar Lap, Tulloch, Kingston Town and Bernborough." " ... Rising Fast, Comic Court, Rain Lover, ... Think Big, ... Sunline ... Makybe Diva ... Mine That Bird and Rachel Alexandra." Not to mention Sea the Stars, and, oh, Secretariat.
sheek
Guest
GB, I got carried away. Wakeful's grandfather Musket was also Carbine's sire, but they weren't father & daughter as I wrongly thought, although closely related.
sheek
Guest
Hi Tristan, Both the beauty & frustration of picking the Melbourne Cup winner is those extra 800 metres from 2400 to 3200. How can you possibly know for sure who the winner will be? So You Think is the class & form horse in the race, but this is not a 2400 weight for age race, like the Prix de l'Arc or King George VI & Queen Elizabeth. So many permutations to consider. Besides, who would seriously have picked Efficient in 2007 or Viewed in 2008 on form, apart from on trust or as a speculator? Efficient was a Derby winner, could stay & reeked of class, but his four starts before the Cup were 10th, 4th, 11th, 9th. Viewed won the Brisbane Cup over 2400m, could stay & was trained by Bart, but his four starts before the Cup were 8th, 7th, 1oth, 11th. The trick is finding those horses who can run that last 800m full of fire in the belly.....
Tristan Rayner
Editor
Hi sheek, continue to enjoy your posts and insight in the comments into racing, especially the history which has a certain romance about it. I was only just recently reading about the mighty US horse Secretariat due to a movie coming out featuring him. I was left truly stunned - floored in fact - by his feat in completing the Triple Crown in the US, where in the Belmont Stakes he won by 31 lengths! 31! Phenomenal. Unmatched. Can't wait to catch the movie. Anyway, back to reality and the Melbourne Cup! I'm (still) on a watch for Linton, who I continue to urge to anyone who will listen before they back away slowly; always qualifying my over-the-top enthusiasm with a "maybe next year" since he is yet to be qualified. At least on Derby Day the tension will be over early - his run in the Lexus is before midday. Can it beat So You Think? Pretty unlikely on anything under 2400m, but up to the 3200m, he's a maybe. But as far as a great story, I hope in future to be able to say I saw So You Think run to youngsters who will marvel at his feats - so best of luck to Bart, and So You Think (A 31 length winner in the Cup would really be a story!
sheek
Guest
GB, One area that Carbine smashes Phar Lap is in post racing pogency. Carbine was a champion sire not only in Australia but also in Britain. One of his most famous daughters was Wakeful, who was almost certainly superior to Makybe Diva, the latter never having to carry the huge weights asked of Wakeful. In the 1903 Melbourne Cup, Wakeful carried a massive 10st (63.5 kgs) into second place, conceding the winner Lord Cardigan an astounding 22kgs!!! Now that was some female.....
GB
Guest
Sheek, i just did a quick read up on Carbine on wikipedia. It states over half of the 65 Melbourne Cup winners from 1914 to 1978 were descendants of Carbine. Incredible..now to hunt down some footage on youtube perhaps. Cheers
sheek
Guest
GB, Actually I think there is, & I think I've seen it, if I'm recalling the right Cup race! But the camera is so far away from the finish line, with only the one angle, the horses grainy small & distant, & in black & white, with no sound, that you really get no genuine sense of his awesome achievement.
GB
Guest
Sheek just a shame there is no footage from the 1890 Cup with Carbine not only negotiating the other 38 runners, but also lugging three and a bit bags of cement around the course.
sheek
Guest
GB, Most racing pundits will claim Phar Lap as the greatest horse to race in Australia. But I reckon Carbine was marginally, yet conclusively, better. Needless to say, Carbine & Phar Lap are the two greatest thoroughbreds to grace the Australian turf.
GB
Guest
"Indeed, the fastest time of the 39 Cups in the 1800s was by none other than the mighty Carbine, who ran 3.28.2 in 1890. He had to lump the race record weight of 10st 5lbs (65.5kgs) & navigate his way through an also record field of 39 starters!" This just about dwarfs any run since in the cup. A phenomenal weight!
sheek
Guest
Spiro, Interesting question. Actually, a very good question. I can't comment about sprints & miles, but for the Melbourne Cup, times have remained steady, although falling. The record of 3 minutes 16.30 seconds was set back in 1990 by Kingston Rule (yet another Cummings winner). The closest since was Media Puzzle in 2002 with a time of 3.16.97. The last 4 cups have all been over 3.20, but the condition of the track & any headwinds on the day will always be contributing factors. As well as the tactics used by various connections. English-Italian trainer Luca Cumani recently explained the running of the Melbourne Cup with great insight & clarity. He said the Cup was run in 3 stages. The first stage, from the barrier rise past the post the first time, was run fast. The second stage, mostly around the back of the course was slow, as jockeys conserved their mounts' energy. The third stage, from around the final bend into the long straight to the finish post, was once again fast. This is almost exactly how the Cup is run every year, more or less. The average mean time of the running of the Cup is coming down all the time. Indeed, the fastest time of the 39 Cups in the 1800s was by none other than the mighty Carbine, who ran 3.28.2 in 1890. He had to lump the race record weight of 10st 5lbs (65.5kgs) & navigate his way through an also record field of 39 starters! Up to the end of 1949, the fastest time had come down to 3.21.0 by Rimfire in 1948. Comic Court, trained by Bart's father Jim, was the first to win in under 3.20, winning in a time of 3.19.5 in 1950. In 1968, Rain Lover set the new mark of 3.19.1 over two miles. When the Cup went metric (3200 metres) in 1972, Rain Lover's winning time was adjusted to 3.17.9 for the metric, which was the new time marker to beat. Rain Lover's adjusted metric time wasn't bettered until Tawriffic in 1989, who won in 3.17.1. But his time was bettered the very next year by Kingston Rule, who continues to hold the fastest time to this day. The improvements in time continue to be incremental. But you would expect the running times to continue to fall over time, due to improvements in veterinary science, food technology, training techniques & preparation & maintenance of tracks, etc.
Spiro Zavos
Expert
Are the horses running faster than in previous decades? Or is there a peak in the evolution of racing horses?.