Wallabies to keep ball in hand and win by twelve

It’s tempting to get sucked into the vortex of pessimism surrounding the Wallabies at the moment, particularly when all anyone can talk about seems to be their ten match losing streak to the All Blacks.

I have to admit, I was there too for a while.

During the most recent Test match at Homebush, as the Wallabies hit their peak lead of 22-9, I turned to former Wallaby lock David Giffin who was sitting nearby and said, “What do you reckon … can we get excited now?”

Showing all the experience of his 50 Tests, Giff shook his head slowly and said, “Mate, not against the All Blacks”.

As it turned out, he was right, and the Wallabies went down by an agonising solitary point.

On the boat back into town, there were plenty of long faces too. People got mighty hung up on the fact of the loss, instead of the manner of it.

Let’s look at those facts, which (let’s face it) are damning.

The fact of the Wallabies’ season is that they have now lost ten matches in succession to the All Blacks. The facts say that they blew a winning lead against South Africa at altitude and lost, and the fact is that they only got out of jail the following week because of a freakish penalty by a part-time kicker who doesn’t even kick for his province.

The facts say that the Wallabies also lost at home to England because their kicker missed too many penalties, and that fact is also that the coach has the worst winning record of any of about the last 5 Wallaby coaches.
Look at the facts, and you’ll find plenty to get down about. It doesn’t make for pretty reading.

But once you look past the numbers and the fulltime results and the goalkicking stats, you’ll see something wonderful is happening with this Wallaby team.

Those who remember the Grand Slam of 1984 will remember the magnificent balance of the Eighth Wallabies – an awesomely strong pack of forwards, balanced by a magical set of backs with the ball on a string. This was Australian rugby at its finest, the type of running rugby for which Australian teams have always been known.

Who could forget Mark Ella setting sail for the English line after splitting the English backs with a “leaguie” move borrowed from the mighty St George Dragons?

Indeed, such running rugby was endemic as far back as the most-recent-but-one Wallaby team to win at altitude, the 1963 Wallabies, whose crisis meeting in a godforsaken Potchefstroom hotel led to one of the great Test series of all time.

Chain-smoking 1936 Wallaby centre, turned manager of the 1963 team, Bill McLaughlin, growled “I’m sick of this ball to the flyhalf and kicking for touch. Australian teams have always been known for running the ball, and that’s what we’ll do from now on”. Cue a famous altitude victory against the Springboks.

Almost all the great matches in Australian rugby history have involved the Wallabies on attack with ball in hand. That’s what we’re known for throughout the world.

So much so that on last year’s Spring Tour, Scotland great Gavin Hastings made the point that while “playing New Zealand was always like some sort of massive physical challenge.

You really had to front up up-front and take them on that way if you were to have any chance” his view was that “playing Australia was different, you know. They always had so many talented backs – Lynagh, Campese, Horan, Little – all these guys who were just so fantastic with the ball in hand, that you just knew that you were up for a game of rugby. Against Australia, there was always the opportunity for an open game and it was very enjoyable rugby in that way”.

The present day Wallabies are a side put together the hard way.

Young players blooded before they were ready, but blooded because they represented the future of rugby in this country. The coach who took the step has been lauded, and then gradually pilloried as the losses mounted up, but never once lost his faith.

That young team has returned the faith and has learnt the trade of Test rugby – that there’s a time for risk and a time for caution; and that faith in your ability pays dividends.

At times, they showed that they had learned the lessons of their Wallaby forebears, but like the raw young men that they mostly are, occasionally retreated into their shells. Sooner or later though, the tipping point is reached, and a new equilibrium erupts out of the ashes of the past.

This Wallaby team is on the cusp of the trust and faith in their own ability that all good teams have. They are now equipped to take the risks and keep the faith.

And so we come to Hong Kong, where the Wallabies get yet another chance to square up against the All Blacks – the apex predator of the rugby world – who have ten wins in a row against the Wallabies, and who are undefeated against all opposition in their last 15 Tests.

Can the Wallabies break the hoodoo? Well it’s an imposing record, but also a funny time of year and a funny venue.
At this time of year, because you’re spending a lot less time on the pitch, you’re relying much more heavily on the quality and intensity of your training.

Also when you finally get on the paddock to play, the chances of one side or the other putting together an inconsistent performance are heightened – which means that a good side can come back to the pack, or a lesser side can get a break they’ve been looking for.

As for Hong Kong, well, it’s party central and they only know one brand of rugby – festival rugby. The intensity one might feel at Eden Park or Loftus is notably absent in Honkers, some of the cab drivers don’t even know where the stadium is. So it can be hard to get into that siege mentality that works so well in the Tri-Nations and the Bledisloe proper.

Both factors can work against both sides of course, so it’s not to say that the Wallabies are about to get some sort of unique advantage.

But out of the two sides, the Wallabies play the brand of rugby most suited to the Hong Kong environment. The week in Hong Kong is relaxed. It’s full of fan days and razzle dazzle, and it’s a game that, in the wider Bledisloe context, doesn’t really matter, because the Kiwis already hold the cup.

The environment and the occasion demands carefree rugby and these All Blacks have been extremely successful not because they were carefree, but careful.

The Wallabies, by contrast, know how to be carefree – too carefree sometimes. But in a match like this, late in the season in a party town and with a whole Spring Tour ahead, the Wallabies young guns will be frothing and looking to put some tries on.

They’ve shown they know how to score points, and the likes of Cooper, O’Connor and Genia can unlock the sternest defences.

If their big dogs up front can hold the awesome Black Pack, then who knows?

The Wallabies might just keep the ball in hand and get the win that their heritage and pedigree demands.

Wallabies by 12.