What are Scotland's chances this Autumn?

After the scale of their defeat against New Zealand, I was regretting shining a light on Scotland at all here on The Roar. A 21-17 victory over South Africa shows that the team does indeed have the capacity to surprise a Southern Hemisphere team. In truth, the Boks have looked pretty poor on this tour. It says something about the trajectory of South African rugby this autumn that a small number of commentators - including Djuro Sen on Ruggamatrix - were actually tipping Scotland to win despite the earlier massacre at the hands of the All Blacks. Scotland may well have been stung into this performance by the knowledge that they embarrassed themselves last week. South Africa didn't look impressive in their wins over Wales and Ireland but credit to Scotland for succeeding where the other two Home Nations failed. There's now a school of thought that the Scots weren't as bad as the scoreline suggests against New Zealand. I don't really agree. Unfortunately, I think the current Scottish style is meat and drink to this All Blacks team and it seemed like every error by the home side turned into a score against them. Scotland played without a safety net that day and that's why the scoreline accurately reflected the balance of play.

The referee at Murrayfield will be England's Dave Pearson. Scotland should have reasonable happy memories of Pearson: he oversaw their first Test 16-24 win over Argentina in June. He penalized the Pumas at the breakdown a great deal so both sides will have to watch their work there. Then again, the TMO will be Giulio De Santis of Italy who performed that function last week in the England match and I think the All Blacks might feel they came off slightly in credit on that account, despite Hartley's try.

Henry kept to his word not to field an experimental side. By fielding so many first-choice players, he's showing Scotland some respect but I suspect he also wants them to shake off those two most recent performances and get back into an efficient groove. The bunker mentality in the squad over Kevin Mealamu probably helps to that end. I see Dylan Cleaver in the Herald expects the Black wrath to break like thunder this weekend and writes: "You almost pity the Scots". The Scotland line-up had a late change. Bench scrum half Rory Lawson has pulled out with an injured hand. He's being replaced by Greg Laidlaw, nephew of the great Scottish scrum half Roy Laidlaw, who partnered John Rutherford in one of rugby's finest halfback pairings. As more grey hairs appear, I find myself enjoying seeing rugby families producing more than one generation of international player. Ben Youngs, the current England scrum half is the son of Nick Youngs who was capped by his country in the same position in the early eighties.

Robinson's team selections for the weekend have surprised some Scottish supporters but, by and large, he seems to have gone with form players. A lot of the headlines focus on his decision to leave record point scorer Chris Paterson out of the match 22. In the Welsh game where Thom Evans picked up a career-ending neck injury, Paterson suffered a split kidney which looked like it might condemn him to the same fate. He missed out on the tour to Argentina but recovered for the start of the new season and has played regularly at full back for Edinburgh. The debate about Paterson in Scotland is similar to the one which rages over Wilkinson in England. Both players are excellent goal kickers, and will keep their teams in the match, but their selection seems to hint at a lack of ambition. Paterson's supporters say he's been playing well for Edinburgh but others have not been so convinced. Andy Robinson has instead gone for Hugh Southwell at full back, Shuggy, as he's known to fans, filled that spot on tour and also plays there for Stade Français where he's been having a good season. The Scottish coach wouldn't be drawn on Paterson's international future but it's clear he thinks Shuggy is playing better right now. Paterson could also be a back-up fly half to Dan Parks but he hasn't played in the position a great deal of late and, as expected, Robinson has gone for the young Glasgow player Ruaridh Jackson. Jackson's goalkicking has been mediocre, however, so it looks like a team selection with no safety net in that department. Ben S above mentions Richie Gray and Richie Vernon ("an embarrassment of Richies", claimed The Courier). Again, these are form picks and No.8 Vernon only missed out on a cap during the last Six Nation because of glandular fever. His selection was widely expected when injury kept Johnnie Beattie out of consideration. As for Richie Gray, who was the Scotland U20 captain just 18 months ago, it seems Robinson always had him down as first choice lock. He's 6ft 8in and 19st 9lbs with a decent turn of pace for a man that size, which points towards the game Scotland want to play. The choice was between Nathan Hines and Jim Hamilton for his partner. Hamilton got the nod but Hines will surely play a part from the bench. I'm pleased Mike Blair has been given the scrum half slot and the captaincy. His detractors say that he doesn't play well with both responsibilities but he was clearly out of sorts when he last led Scotland in March 2009. His late call-up for the Lions tour showed his loss of form even more clearly and Mike Phillips never had a serious challenger at scrum half. This season, Blair has looked sharp and will be a useful influence behind the likes of Vernon in the pack. The scrum will be an area the Scots hope to win against New Zealand. They saw what England did and fancy their chances of doing the same, especially with Mealamu and Franks now out of the running for the All Blacks. Perhaps surprisingly for neutrals, Lions prop Euan Murray wasn't a shoe-in as first choice tighthead because he hasn't had much game time for Northampton. Robinson has decided that Murray's experience and self assurance will have more impact on his team mates if he starts the match so Moray Low has missed out. Loosehead Alasdair Dickinson is the only prop on the bench. On paper, Scotland might look like they'll just hope to win the set pieces and kick for territory through Parks. Robinson would be no stranger to those tactics but instead has promised a high tempo game. He is an enthusiastic supporter of the style and standard of play seen in this year's Tri Nations as is his attack coach, Gregor Townsend. Townsend described them as "real Tests" in a sly jab at England defence coach Mike Ford. The former Scotland fly half also had this to say: "It's a new game, a modern game, and we like operating in chaos, traditionally we've thrived there. It suits our type of players and it suits our physical nature. It's what Glasgow and Edinburgh are trying to do week in week out." Townsend also pointed out that the Scots once held the record for most points scored against the All Blacks, 31 in 1996 at Carisbrook. Unfortunately, New Zealand racked up 62 in reply so there was no real contest that day . A lot will rest on whether the Scottish defence can hold the wave of Black shirts at bay for long enough to exert some pressure of their own. If Scotland deliver, we could be in for an entertaining match, whatever the final result.