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Australia won’t play Scotland in this year’s Autumn Internationals and the Scots haven’t had much attention on The Roar. In fact, they are off the radar for a lot of the rugby press.
Nevertheless, Wallaby supporters will remember the pain of losing their Edinburgh fixture last year.
Can the Scots can spring a surprise on the All Blacks or the Boks?
I’ll say up front that I doubt it. However, if they do grab a win, it will have more pedigree than their victory twelve months ago. Scotland are now seventh in the IRB rankings, two places above Wales. In the last two games of the most recent Six Nations, they held England to a draw and beat Ireland, both higher ranked teams. They followed it up with a series win in Argentine, an achievement which looked even better when the Pumas beat France in their next match.
Andy Robinson deserves a lot of credit. As England manager, he was pilloried for poor selection. If that is his weakness, then it’s not so important in Scotland. The smaller player base means he spends less time on second-guessing himself and more time using his undoubted coaching skills to get the best out of the players available.
It might be damning Scotland with faint praise to say they have a lot of the attributes of a good club side but the players do work hard for each other. In recent years, it’s seemed that Scotland’s main ambition against southern hemisphere sides was to avoid a hiding, so the match was lost before the kick-off.
I don’t think heads will drop so easily now even if opponents do start to run up a score. The main advantage for the Scots is that top opposition still expect to beat them, and doubts can creep in if it doesn’t seem to be going so easily.
Scotland have never beaten New Zealand so history alone suggests it won’t be the All Blacks who suffer an ambush. If Carter plays, he’s unlikely to miss kicks in the way Matt Giteau did last year. Graham Henry has indicated he won’t be putting out an experimental side, mindful of Scotland’s recent better form, but he also said he hasn’t yet watched a full video of any of those matches.
Henry won’t want a close game at Murrayfield, following on from the loss in Hong Kong and the sub par showing at Twickenham, however he may yet be tempted to hold some first choice players back.
Like many teams, Scotland have been hit with injuries. Captain and scrum half Chris Cusiter is out. That shouldn’t be a devastating blow because Rory Lawson has been in good nick for Gloucester and Mike Blair looks back to his best after a disappointing Lions tour in 2009. Both players will compete for the No.9 slot and either could also be named captain.
Robinson has his other Lions available. Wagga Wagga-born Nathan Hines has been effective for them in the lineout and might have been turning out for the Wallabies against England next week if his life had taken a different turn.
Hooker Ross Ford is another captaincy candidate and he may pack down with tighthead Euan Murray. Murray doesn’t play on Sundays, which has limited his game time this season, so his coach has hinted he could turn elsewhere.
It will be a surprise if Murray doesn’t feature at some stage.
Flyhalf Dan Parks is another short of practice. He hasn’t played a game in five weeks, and if he’s off form, then Scotland’s chances will be even smaller. His understudy is Ruaridh Jackson who has yet to play a Test.
The Scottish backline has often been criticized for lack of creativity and it was sad to hear this week that winger Thom Evans has been forced to retire after suffering a horrific injury against Wales in the Six Nations.
Evans wasn’t in the line-up during Scotland’s recent run of form, though, and the backs now seem more able to capitalise on Robinson’s plan to “create chaos”. He may not start, but winger Nikki Walker has looked good for the Ospreys of late.
New Zealand like chaos themselves so the gameplan could easily play into their hands. It’s difficult to see Scotland having the pace to live with the All Blacks but if the Kiwis go into the match complacent, there’s an outside chance a proud 105 year old run will be at risk.
You would have to think that the Boks are a more realistic target this year. Scotland have a better scrum than Ireland and, if they can keep the error count down, they could pose a few more questions for South Africa than the Irish managed.
It’s a frequent story to see Northern Hemisphere supporters try to build up their self-belief before the Autumn Tests only to see the South sweep all the honours.
Realistically, Scotland should lose both their matches against higher ranked opposition. On the positive side, the Murrayfield crowd won’t be burdening their team with the high expectations you see at Twickenham, Cardiff and Landsdowne.
Australia would be wary of the Scots after their experience last year. The question is whether New Zealand and South Africa go in expecting the game to be a gimme. If there is a surprise in the pipeline, then all international coaches will have to take a closer look at the videos to see what’s brewing in Scotland.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.