Which AFL coaches are really safe in 2011?

The step from hero to zero is a short one in AFL coaching. John Worsfold and Michael Voss have captained or coached each of their AFL clubs’ three premierships, but will enter 2011 fighting for their careers.

Mick Malthouse coached Collingwood to glory just this October, but knows next year is his last in the job.

The man he replaced as the AFL’s reigning premiership coach, Geelong’s Mark Thompson, has already left, one of three premiership coaches to exit this year.

Strangely, the only head coach with no experience on any AFL club’s coaching panel is probably the most secure – Essendon favourite son James Hird, courtesy of the four-year contract needed to lure him from business.

Worsfold, who captained West Coast to their 1992 and 1994 flags and coached their 2006 triumph, knows next year will be his last in charge if this year’s wooden spoon form continues.

Brisbane coach Voss, who captained the Lions’ 2001-03 triple-premiership outfits, needs to quickly revitalise a side which won just three of their last 18 games this year and has lost numerous players.

Here’s what confronts all 17 clubs in 2011:

ADELAIDE
In Neil Craig’s first five years, the Crows could not convert home and away form to finals, with a 3-6 post-season record. This year, they did not even make September. With their experienced core of Andrew McLeod, Simon Goodwin, Tyson Edwards and Brett Burton, plus Trent Hentschel, having retired and Nathan Bock gone to the Gold Coast, Craig faces a test. Ex-Carlton ruck recruit Sam Jacobs will be handy.

BRISBANE
Voss has to address the Lions’ terrible 2010 slump, plus counter the loss of talented pair Jared Brennan and Michael Rischitelli to Gold Coast, and Justin Sherman to the Western Bulldogs. The Lions, and star recruit Brendan Fevola, started this year brightly. But the team’s form faded, while Fevola’s injuries and assorted off-field issues caused headaches.

CARLTON
Two tight elimination final losses in as many seasons will have a young Blues squad hungry. After another list overhaul and with the return from injury of talented ruckman Matthew Kreuzer, they will feel the pressure to at least win a final next year.

COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies won the flag with a young team. Senior players such as Josh Fraser, Tarkyn Lockyer, Shane O’Bree and Paul Medhurst were not needed and have since gone. Boosted in defence by Chris Tarrant’s return from Fremantle, and in midfield depth by rejuvenated ex-Richmond player Andrew Krakouer, Malthouse could well hand successor Nathan Buckley a dual premiership side.

ESSENDON
It’s an off-field dream team, with the Bombers’ two most recent premiership captains James Hird and Mark Thompson uniting as coach and super assistant. But while Brownlow and Norm Smith Medallist and five-time best and fairest Hird is an Essendon favourite son for his on-field feats, he is completely unproven in the box. He inherits a middling list, with some fine young tall players, but a shallow midfield, while their best defender, Dustin Fletcher, is nearly as old as Hird. If early results are poor, having a dual premiership coach sharing the box might not be so comfortable for his new boss.

FREMANTLE
The Dockers’ future has never looked so bright, although given they are coming off a season including just the second finals win in their history, that is no big call. But, if 2010 midfield revelation Michael Barlow can return successfully from a broken leg and ruck giant Aaron Sandilands can be the force he was before injury restricted him in the semi-final whipping from Geelong, a talented young squad should have a big year.

GEELONG
Collingwood ending the Cats’ era of dominance hurt. Superstar Gary Ablett heading to the Gold Coast hurt more. Coach Mark Thompson quitting, citing exhaustion, then turning up at Essendon, magnified the pain. Untried new coach Chris Scott faces the unenviable task of inheriting a club used to success, but seemingly sliding. Their biggest worry might be ruckman Brad Ottens is in his career twilight, while support act Mark Blake has been significantly outperformed by Shane Mumford, the player the Cats lost to Sydney last year.

GOLD COAST
A smattering of experienced players, led by the game’s biggest name, Ablett, is unlikely to make up for the youthful nature of the expansion club’s squad. If rookie coach Guy McKenna can keep his post for three or four years, he might experience some success, but first he needs to survive a tough infancy period.

HAWTHORN
The Hawks looked set for a golden era when a young squad upstaged Geelong in the 2008 grand final. Those heights have not been neared since and brownie points have run out for coach Alastair Clarkson and his charges. That message was rammed home by a major post-season list cleanout. Hard man Campbell Brown left for Gold Coast, but the Hawks added needed ruck depth with North Melbourne’s David Hale.

MELBOURNE
After following consecutive wooden spoons with 12th spot, the Demons are expected to push for finals next year. Youth will no longer cut it as an excuse if they slump back near the bottom. Having benefitted from a glut of high draft picks, coach Dean Bailey needs to start delivering in his fourth year in charge. Much focus will be on former No.1 pick Jack Watts, who showed some good signs in 2010, and his combination with the exciting Liam Jurrah.

NORTH MELBOURNE
The Kangaroos surprised in their first season under Brad Scott to miss the top eight only on percentage. That was despite injury costing them probably their most important player, Drew Petrie, for almost the entire season, while young midfielders Jack Ziebell and Liam Anthony also missed much of the year. With that trio back – and if evergreen skipper Brent Harvey can hold his form – things look bright.

PORT ADELAIDE
New coach Matthew Primus has one of the competition’s biggest challenges, turning around a club struggling on and off the field. The retirement of 2004 premiership skipper Warren Tredrea and exit of premiership coach Mark Williams, signals a clear break from the past. The Power ended the season with a 5-2 record under Primus as caretaker. Then again, they also had that record after seven games of 2010 under Williams, before capitulating.

RICHMOND
Low expectations under first-year coach Damien Hardwick in 2010 were further dampened by nine straight losses to start the season. But six wins, a standout first year from midfielder Dustin Martin and surprise Coleman Medal to Jack Riewoldt have hopes much higher for the coming season. The big queries are whether Riewoldt and Martin can reproduce that form under greater scrutiny and whether another tall forward can emerge to support Riewoldt.

ST KILDA
Just about everything that could go wrong did for the Saints this year, yet they still went as close as it gets to a premiership. That they overcame losing former skipper Luke Ball to Collingwood, the sacking of Andrew Lovett without playing a game and a major injury to star skipper Nick Riewoldt speaks volumes for their character. But with ruckman Steven King having retired, and Michael Gardiner nearing the end, the suspicion is they might struggle to get that close again.

SYDNEY
The Swans have proved themselves the masters of reinvention, returning to finals in 2010 after a one-year absence, helped by smart recruiting, with the recycled Shane Mumford, Mark Seaby, Daniel Bradshaw, Josh Kennedy and Ben McGlynn proving more than handy. They will take on another new look next year, with John Longmire taking the helm from Paul Roos and much-admired veteran Brett Kirk also gone. It will be fascinating to see whether Roos’ apprentice can match his mentor’s superb record.

WEST COAST
Fresh from their first wooden spoon and first three-year stretch without finals, the pressure is firmly on favourite son John Worsfold. He was not helped by injuries ruining the seasons of two of the Eagles’ better players, captain Daniel Glass and star midfielder Daniel Kerr, in 2010. The good news was tall forward Josh Kennedy and silky-skilled Mark LeCras emerging as a dangerous double act. Super-athletic ruckman Nic Naitanui showed signs of enormous potential.

WESTERN BULLDOGS
Having traded for Patrick Veszpremi and Justin Sherman, picked up sons of guns Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore through the father-son rule, and with another, beanpole ruckman Ayce Cordy, still to debut, the Bulldogs have reasons for optimism. Throw in midfield star Adam Cooney, who missed the finals with injury, and a fit Brian Lake, who battled injury through the finals, and the top four side of the past two seasons has potential to go further. There has been an experience drain with Brad Johnson, Nathan Eagleton and Jason Akermanis gone, and a bigger blow, with running defender Jarrod Harbrow joining Gold Coast, but much experience remains.