With second teams being installed in NSW and Queensland, the following question must be asked: Where does the AFL expand to next?
With two teams in most states and representation in most territories, I believe the AFL nears saturation point in its home country, with possible exceptions being Tasmania and Canberra. However, I’d like to look at its overseas planning, especially in the local region, and see into my crystal ball.
For years now Papua New Guinea has had more registered Australian Rules players than anywhere else outside of Australia. It features junior programs run by AFL PNG, and has close ties with AFL Queensland. Indeed, many New Guinea players now play in the Cairns region.
There are several PNG players currently in AFL development – James Gwilt, the St Kilda 2010 Best and Fairest, has parents from Papua New Guinea. The now retired Mal Micheal was born in Papua New Guinea, with a Papuan father. 7500 people turned out to see the PNG national team defeat an Australian Indigenous squad in 2009.
Across the Tasman, New Zealand has more than 600 senior players in 19 teams across five leagues. There are several players currently on AFL lists and in development. Others have already retired, including the likes of Trent Croad and Wayne Shwass.
AFL exhibition matches have been reasonably well attended, with 11,000 people attending a match in 2000. Hawthorn are heavily involved in New Zealand, having recently created a schools program, which this year moves into more than 70 schools across New Zealand.
A number of recent announcements make the crystal ball interesting; first the decision to lump top teams from NSW, QLD and the NT together to form the North East Australian Football league (NEAFL).
Second the recent announcement of the Champions League between the different state league teams. Finally, the AFL’s declaration that it was willing to take on the Pacific Islands using its recent heavy weaponry in the form of Karmicheal Hunt and Israel Folau to the best of its advantage.
The North East Australian Football league is a two conference league, based on an amalgamation of the Queensland and ACT leagues.
It couldn’t be too hard to involve new Guinea and New Zealand in the new NEAFL competition. In doing so the AFL would become the first Australian league to embrace New Guinea, and the last of the codes to embrace New Zealand. People have pushed for pre-season or exhibition matches to be played in Port Moresby for years to no avail, and this should be addressed.
The NEAFL would finally give New Zealand and New Guinea players something to play for beyond the annual International Cup matches. A New Guinea team should be reasonably competitive in the NEAFL – we’re not talking the SANFL or WAFL standards here – and even New Zealand, who have beaten New Guinea at the International Cup, should get a fair go as well and benefit from playing against better teams without copping the floggings they are likely to receive in other states.
This then gives them a pathway to the new Champions League competition, which should prove a barometer as to how the game is going against genuinely good players.
There’s quite often a fine line between top line SANFL/WAFL/VFL players and AFL quality, and sometimes no distinction at all, as we’ve seen in recent years.
Let’s face it, these teams aren’t likely to get an AFL quality team any time soon, but these newly announced structures and junior development programs are essential to gauging the progress of the sport in the region. Like Hawthorn in New Zealand and Carlton, Collingwood and Fremantle in South Africa, the AFL should offer incentives to any club willing to spend time in New Guinea. Pre-season or NAB Cup matches should be played in these areas.
In fact, if the AFL was serious, it should offer the remaining clubs incentives to take a territory in the Pacific area and develop it along the same lines as Hawthorn.
The game is immensely popular in Nauru, for example. Recent articles in The Sydney Morning Herald suggest there are 800 AFL participants in Tonga, where the King has apparently suggested building an AFL academy and the AFL will seek to use the recently recruited Folau to raise the game’s profile. A South Pacific representative side will play in the under-16 championships in 2011.
Whilst some dream of teams in China and Los Angeles, I’d like to see a Pacific AFL structure, with teams representing New Zealand, New Guinea and the Islands included by expanding the NEAFL to include them, perhaps as a third Pacific conference.
As the development pathways become more stablised in these countries, there are going to be tangible benefits for the sport if the AFL Commission manages it right.
Local association football and rugby supporters will continue to scoff at the international aspects of Australian football, but given the Australian association football team quit the Oceania Confederation because it lacked competition and opportunity, it can hardly talk (its competition had included a 31-0 routing of the Samoa and a 13-0 thrashing of the Solomon Islands.
New Guinea was recently flogged by Australia and New Zealand in the Four Nations rugby league competition).
The battle for the Pacific is wide open.
methysticum
Guest
I loved where David Matthews, the so-called International Development Officer of the AFL, said they would take on Rugby League in their heartlands of the South Pacific - Tonga. Samoa, Fiji, - where there maybe 500 players who dabble in that code - forgetting there are probably 200,000 who play rugby union - who also kick with both feet, tackle, swerve, run and jump much higher, faster and stronger than anything in the AFL. To hear David Rodan from Fiji say to the Melbourne AFL audience that all his tall relatives in Fiji play basketball is an embarrassment both for him and those in Melbourne who write his press releases. His relatives would all be playing rugby, which is the national sport of Fiji. Most of the Fiji national rugby team are 2 metres tall and are much more talented with balls in hand than St Kilda players in a Miami hotel room. If David Matthews thinks RL is the opposition in the Pacific Islands I don't like his chances of spreading the gospel of AD far past the Murrumbidgee.
Parkridge Panther
Guest
Mmmm depends on what the definition of thriving is and what the definition of popular is. The Swans are tolerated and have been since 1984. For the vast majority of NSW the Swans mean absolutley jack. The AFL want and need the Swans to be thriving when infact they are not. There are questions on how the derive their attendance figures.
Parkridge Panther
Guest
Brisbane is in the red by 2.4 million this year and is banking on a further subsantiall loss in 2011. I will be surpised if they finsih above 14th, AFL have problems in there expansion regions as well as SA and WA. Expansion into PNG for RL is being muted but there are massive problems to overcome and that is with a sport that is like a religon for these peoples.
TTG is RL
Roar Rookie
The_Wookie said in his article: "In doing so the AFL would become the first Australian league to embrace New Guinea" No it wouldn't, The Port Moresby Vipers played in the Qld Cup years ago.
Mike
Guest
Those that think AFL in PNG will not survive should follow the link below and read the history of AFL in PNG and where its is heading to. It will never beat RL but it will not wilt away either. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_rules_football_in_Papua_New_Guinea
Republican
Guest
Wookie Lets please look after our own backyard first, before ever entertaining any off shore expansion and this includes the new NEAFL. It is way too premature to be talking about expanding this fledgling comp and especially so in respect of NZ. Whether or not NZ is worth spending any time, money or resources on is a moot point indeed however, it is something I feel strongly opposed to because - NZ have been afforded this sort of consideration in respect of other codes that have a greater global profile yet struggled to be sustainable. This also resulted in the expedient marginalization of very worthy local demographics in favor of NZ ones. The liklehood of NZ misappropriating the codes branding because they take exception to it being referred to as' Australian', should sound alarm bells - I mean really, how much of this great cultural institution would you compromise to have it appear sudo global? PNG do NOT have the quality to field any stand alone team in the NEAFL so NZ is more than out of it's depth and anything but credentialed, yet it is nearly always NZ who are touted as an O/S base for our code. Despite the push by Hawthorn into the NZ school system the game continues to be little more than a novel P.E. activity with any local competitions running during a brief window post Union season. This does not exactly qualify as sound investment in my opinion, offering very little potential to produce any real quality grass roots, especially when this sort of investment would be better spent on the many local schools and grassroots programmes that compared to NZ, offer talent in spades. Despite exposing our code to a handful of young inquisitive heathens and talking it up as they do ad nauseaum on WFN, I cannot see how this justifies any perceived expansionist obsession on the AFL internationalists part, who's real agenda seems to dangerously be more about going head to head with the other Trans Tasman brands integral the code cold war. If we reckon GWS is going to be a tough market to crack, you can times this by 100 in respect of NZ. Spend our time, resources and money on local demos of which there are many and remain steadfastly uni lateral and unique to Australia's sporting culture, rather than dumbing it down to resemble it's competitors - and the Indig game will continue to be sustainable and remain Australia's preeminent football code in my humble opinion. Cheers
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
there's an important process happening here via Folau and Hunt. It's not necessarily to 'convert' players en mass overnight or even in the long term. However, it's a mind set change. And over a period of time, the mindset change is to validate the game of Australian Football as a real and serious option, and a valid option. The journey taken by Folau and Hunt is becoming a public one. In some respects it's a bit like a reality tv show. Perhaps cheaper.
mick h
Guest
koops , i agree it happens all the time go to soccer training and see all the kids with their rl team jumper on
mick h
Guest
where are they going to find enough good quality players from with the already crowded sporting landscape in australia. i know you talk about png joining a second teir comp but png already competed in the qld cup and it lasted 2 seasons.
mick h
Guest
nf, in 2011 there will be 3 clubs st g illa souths and the broncos approaching 20,000 members.
mick h
Guest
wookie, you have no idea all of sydney's suburban grounds only hold max of 20,000 people. as memberships grow in the nrl clubs are going to have to play at bigger venues which will match the swans.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
Cmon Mate! Don't get too down.... Besides, If the site is such a joke among AFL fans then why do so many of you come here all the time! Just relax a bit, no-one expects the AFL to suffer, it will get stronger over the next decade or so, maybe not as strong as what you are hoping, but stronger all the same. Smile!
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
I actually believe that the AFL will end up with 20 teams, with one in Tasmania and one in Canberra. I covered that in an article i wrote on expansion before this one. The entire point of this article was about code develiopment in the pacific area, and looking at the possibility of at some point in the future bringing a NZ or PNG team into the NEAFL, effectively a second tier competition made up of top teams from third tier ones.
jamesb
Guest
Also how many teams will the AFL eventually have. By 2012 the AFL will have 18 teams, and bear in mind Australia has a population of just 22 million with another 3 footy codes and cricket. Over in america, the NFL has 32 teams, and USAs population is well over 300 million. So how many teams can the AFL cope? If the AFL wants to expand, they may have to cut some melbourne clubs. The Wookie, you said you want to expand the code, but not the league, yet you talk about, tonga, png, n.z, and ignore tassie and canberra. The thing that people always forget is where will the AFL get its players from? With 18 teams I just wonder if the standard will drop off. It takes years to develop AFL players (as the FFA and A-league are finding out now), especially if your thinking about kids from tonga and png.
jamesb
Guest
i reckon the afl should have a team in tonga and another in singapore. Then some wag in melbourne will call the AFL "the world game". I think the AFL should concentrate getting the expansion teams successful and one or two of their melbourne clubs (nth Mel) staying viable.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
change comes to us all whether we would or no. Nowhere did I infer than an Oceania side should be based anywhere. And nowhere did I advocate abandoning local and long suffering leagues, in fact I believe the AFL doesnt assist the state bodies in these areas to the extent that it might, particularly true in nojn traditional Australian football regions. Opinions are great, and in this instance I disagree - not least because its a North east league not South East - and I dont believe its going to happen in the short term, but is a long term prospect. I dont disagree because i believe you are wrong, I just see it differently. NZ do have 600 registered players and a new junior pogram going into 70 schools. Its more than enough to be positive about. 20 years ago we'd have said the same about Brisbane, and probably Sydney as well when it came to Australian Football credibility. Australian Football doesnt need any other country, I agree, but we shouldnt be ashamed to support the people playing and promoting our great game overseas. Id rather
Republican
Guest
The Wookie. Where there's smoke there's fire and I believe your attitude reflects a potential thin edge of the wedge, to expediently foster an overseas venture (NZ most likely) in favor of any long suffering and deserving local one. I thought you inferred that an 'Oceania' side should one day be based in NZ, integral to the AFL? Including NZ in any tier whatsoever, especially the recently established NEAFL one is a ludicrous and insulting notion in my opinion. NZ have absolutely diddly footy cred or pedigree especially in the context of this new comp. You seem to be indirectly pushing a top down promotion of the code in this respect, by wanting to include not only a non footy demographic, but one which is hostile and alien to our code and culture and as already stated, would only stand to devalue the AFL by going head to head with the glut of Trans Tasman commercial products that exist in various forms and tiers as is, whether that be at the elite or any other Australian level of our great game. Australian Football quite simply does not need any other country and especially NOT NZ. Cheers
Damm Lies and Propaganda
Guest
Hate to burst your bubble ruckrover. I remeber when basketball and baseball were going to take over Australia (80s, 90s, similar numbers of paticipants,growing every year at that stage). But guess what, the baseball competition died and basketball (NBA) seems to be doing not much better. You can believe all the propaganda you want ruckrover, but in the end its just that, propaganda. PS- still laughing at the PNG claims, give you a guess at what their national sport is, and there's no second place only niches.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
Read again. I dont believe NZ will ever get an AFL level team. AFL teams require revenues of massive orders of magnitude over even a state league squad. This article was about effectively seeing NZ represented in second tier league with a second tier nationally based team. Not once did I say anything about playing the top level there. I very clearly state the NEAFL as where i believe the aim should be.
The_Wookie
Roar Guru
I ahve absolutely no idea what you mean by this. I love Australian Football, make no bones about it. We dont need overseas expansion to affirm support, what im saying is that the game is out there overseas, and that the AFL could do more to support it. Sport has always expanded, soccer and the rugby codes came here from overseas, as did practically every other sport. Whether it was bought by traders, immigrants or soldiers, its how things grow. Why is it necessary to stomp the little pockets of excitement and Australian Football supporter gets when hearing about the International Football Cup results or seeing the results of the codes years in South Africa or the US. Theres no international board that governs the sport, if we dont promote it, then who will?