This is the fifth and final instalment of the pre-season assessment of the Australian Super rugby teams’ chances in this year’s tournament.
The Rebels will not win the 2011 Super Rugby tournament.
Professional rugby clubs have learned to lock up their best players. The Rebels had no choice but to go for one-off marginal players or those with personal agendas out of sync with the mainstream rugby cycle.
The Rebels have cleverly assembled their team of discards with a common attribute, character. This character comes from the experience of the New Zealand contingent, the 13 former team captains in the 32 man squad and the toughness that comes from a long league season for the likes of Rooney, Saffy and Vuna.
Four questions remain unanswered though.
1. Will they combine sufficiently to play competitively? Rugby is a complex game.
2. Will the old heads (Cordingley (35), Mortlock (34), Somerville (34), Campbell (32), Henderson (30)) have legs that can be fast enough, bodies resilient enough and hearts keen enough for a long season?
3. Will those thirteen players with a point to prove, succeed or return from whence they came?
Lipman, Gerrard, Campbell and Blake are coming home for their last chance to show their true ability to the home crowds.
Rooney, Vuna and Saffy are attempting to achieve the league to union transition. Davidson and Betham have a last chance to break into professional rugby.
Cipriani, Freier, Huxley, Mortlock and Delve are seeking the rebirthing of their international careers.
4. Will their youngsters rise to the occasion and create a dynasty for years to come?
The Rebels youngsters include Phipps, Du Plessis, Kingi, Pyle, Jones, Mitchell and Vuna.
Compared to the Brumbies’ first incarnation, the Brumbies had a lot more young players, in key positions, yet to be discovered; Gregan, Larkham and Melon to name just a few.
Maybe one Rebel youngster will be in the same class as the Brumbies tyros of yesteryear.
The Melbourne Rebels likely starting team will be:
1. Somerville, Immediate selection
2. Freier, but will his body hold up?
3. Weeks, Immediate selection
4. O’Neill, Immediate selection
5. Campbell, at 201 Cms, he is a Test candidate ahead of Chisholm at least.
6. Davidson, undoubted tenacity but will it be enough?
7. Lipman, Immediate selection
8. Delve, Immediate selection
9. Cordingley, let’s hope he plays some games and mentors the youngsters
10. Cipriani, Immediate selection
11. Rooney, Immediate selection
12. Vuna, Immediate selection
13. Mortlock, Immediate selection, but will his body hold up?
14. Betham (looked bigger, faster and tougher than ever in the latter part of 2010 season, and about time.)
15. Huxley
16. Robinson
17. Blake
18. Macdonald
19. Saffy (expect a big season from Saffy in the ball carrying department)
20. Phipps
21. Mitchell
22. Gerrard, will he be fit enough, big enough and fast enough, to compete at Super level?
It is impossible to predict how this team will perform because even players possessing the greatest character eventually succumb to the effects of time.
I expect that the final standings in the Australian conference for 2011 will be:
1. Waratahs
2. Reds
3. Brumbies
4. Rebels
5. Force
The Reds and Brumbies packs are equal. The Reds backline and coaching staff tip the balance in their favour.
The Force and Rebels are similarly lack lustre squads. McQueen and his 13 former captains will keep going when reality hits mid-season.
The bookies see it differently though:
1. Waratahs
2. Brumbies
3. Reds
4. Force
5. Rebels
sledgeandhammer
Guest
Re converts, Andrew Walker switched from rugby to league when he was 17 - he was playing for Randwick if my memory serves me correctly and I was pretty pissed!
Dallas
Guest
Mike Pike was a really strong fullback, I was a fan and I think the Rebels should have scouted him. He would have gained new skills in AFL and he would have bought some AFL interest, which is great in a city like Melbourne. Kingi will be the Rebels best player (provided he gets game time over the overrated Phipps and old man Cordingly), you heard it here first. Saffy to start over Davidson, Gerard to start over beale. Mortlock at 12 and Vuna to 13.
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
saffy was an aust schools rep prop in the day.
Colin N
Guest
That list looks correct, hardly 'star' names. I remember seeing a year ago that Heaslip said he might want to try his hand at Super Rugby in the future.
Ben S
Roar Guru
The only UK/European players to have played Super rugby, as far as I'm aware, are: Peter Clohessy, Julian White, Kevin Yates, Gregor Townsend, Fred Michalak and Andy Goode. Any more?
Colin N
Guest
"if you look at players coming from UK to super rugby, I’m struggling to remember any players that have successfully switched and dominated." Name the northern hemisphere players who have played Super Rugby? Goode played for the Sharks last season and seemed to adapt pretty well to the point where he was offered a two-year deal and Michalak had a disappointing stint in the then Super 14 a few years ago, but did well in the Currie Cup later that year.
CizzyRascal
Roar Guru
Kovana, If he puts his hat into the ring for Tonga, he will certainly be selected.
NF
Guest
Crashy Thanks for clarifying I am a leaguie but I don't mind Union and I'm all for the Rebels succeeding the word of both rugby codes-union & league must be spread around Australia. All the best to the Rebels & my team the Reds.
Crashy
Guest
NF - A minor clarification if I may, Saffy has played Rugby almost all his life ( made the Waratahs academy after playing at St Josephs in Sydney) and Vuna played rugby well into his teens so I doubt you could say that they 'converted' from league. Good on you though for supporting the Rebels - I may be a Tahs fan, but we need all of our teams to do well - especially the Reds!
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
Clever work as usual LAS. Of course it is a long season so if RM (a) rotates his senior cits so they aren't all in sick bay by finals, (b) hardens and bloods the future brigade astutely they have as good a chance as any. Union squads with a very strong work/fun balance can do extraordinary things and I trust RM to be working on creating an environment where they do enjoy themselves playing cool-headed, hard, skillful and successful Super Rugby.
p.Tah
Guest
A group of us bought tickets for the Tahs vs Rebels today. Really looking forward to the match and seeing what the Rebels and the Rebel Army have put together.
Wall-Nut
Guest
This team has got alot of potential, I expect them to really knock off some of the bigger teams, also think Melbourne will get right behind the rebels, it's all positive! -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
SA
Guest
Yea but Temba the players in that stormers team are university students themselves. the Stormers have a training squad of 75 the guys getting a run now are all young and are showing their worth for final selection.
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
Melon, thanks for the gratitude. Now, I think the ting that this Rebels team and club have is character. that will get them through many games, they will win the close ones and loss by smaller margins. here's hoping............
Jay
Guest
Is Vuna really playing that well? That surprises me becuase he was an above average winger in league on his day. I havent seen him play in union yet..
NF
Guest
Looking for to the Rebels match by match they sounding more promising Vuna & Saffy would convert well from league to union, I predict Vuna to be a try scoring machine like he was back in the NRL things are looking great for the Rebels I may be a Reds fan and a leaguie too but it doesn't stop me supporting a new team because they need all the help and community support to succeed and I think they will.
kovana
Guest
Nah... Already have a bountiful supply of Centers for the wallabies.
Nathan
Guest
yeah i watched every NPC game Rooney played too and he was quite a bit behind the pace, in Super rugby terms he was miles behind! Tempo is going to be the thing, can these guys keep up with the pace that Bulls & Crusaders go at? i doubt it, mind you most international teams would struggle keeping up.
allblackfan
Guest
SBW had something interesting to say on the difference between French and NZ rugby. He said French rugby overall was more physical but that the tempo of play in NZ was 10 times faster. I watched Rooney in all four games he played for Hawkes Bay last year. He did some good things (he can rip the ball and good under the high ball!!) and did some bad things (got pinged for holding onto the ball in the tackle after he unwisely decided to run through two tcklers and failed). The tempo of play caught him out instinctwise; he ran too many times into too many defenders and needs to learn to kick. Gametime will sort him right but I suspect it will take a major injuriy for him to even get anywhere near a RWC spot. Vuna won't be available for Tonga; he's thrown his lot in with the Wallabies!!
King of the Gorgonites
Roar Guru
Maybe even the wallabies?