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This is the fifth and final instalment of the pre-season assessment of the Australian Super rugby teams’ chances in this year’s tournament.
The Rebels will not win the 2011 Super Rugby tournament.
Professional rugby clubs have learned to lock up their best players. The Rebels had no choice but to go for one-off marginal players or those with personal agendas out of sync with the mainstream rugby cycle.
The Rebels have cleverly assembled their team of discards with a common attribute, character. This character comes from the experience of the New Zealand contingent, the 13 former team captains in the 32 man squad and the toughness that comes from a long league season for the likes of Rooney, Saffy and Vuna.
Four questions remain unanswered though.
1. Will they combine sufficiently to play competitively? Rugby is a complex game.
2. Will the old heads (Cordingley (35), Mortlock (34), Somerville (34), Campbell (32), Henderson (30)) have legs that can be fast enough, bodies resilient enough and hearts keen enough for a long season?
3. Will those thirteen players with a point to prove, succeed or return from whence they came?
Lipman, Gerrard, Campbell and Blake are coming home for their last chance to show their true ability to the home crowds.
Rooney, Vuna and Saffy are attempting to achieve the league to union transition. Davidson and Betham have a last chance to break into professional rugby.
Cipriani, Freier, Huxley, Mortlock and Delve are seeking the rebirthing of their international careers.
4. Will their youngsters rise to the occasion and create a dynasty for years to come?
The Rebels youngsters include Phipps, Du Plessis, Kingi, Pyle, Jones, Mitchell and Vuna.
Compared to the Brumbies’ first incarnation, the Brumbies had a lot more young players, in key positions, yet to be discovered; Gregan, Larkham and Melon to name just a few.
Maybe one Rebel youngster will be in the same class as the Brumbies tyros of yesteryear.
The Melbourne Rebels likely starting team will be:
1. Somerville, Immediate selection
2. Freier, but will his body hold up?
3. Weeks, Immediate selection
4. O’Neill, Immediate selection
5. Campbell, at 201 Cms, he is a Test candidate ahead of Chisholm at least.
6. Davidson, undoubted tenacity but will it be enough?
7. Lipman, Immediate selection
8. Delve, Immediate selection
9. Cordingley, let’s hope he plays some games and mentors the youngsters
10. Cipriani, Immediate selection
11. Rooney, Immediate selection
12. Vuna, Immediate selection
13. Mortlock, Immediate selection, but will his body hold up?
14. Betham (looked bigger, faster and tougher than ever in the latter part of 2010 season, and about time.)
15. Huxley
16. Robinson
17. Blake
18. Macdonald
19. Saffy (expect a big season from Saffy in the ball carrying department)
20. Phipps
21. Mitchell
22. Gerrard, will he be fit enough, big enough and fast enough, to compete at Super level?
It is impossible to predict how this team will perform because even players possessing the greatest character eventually succumb to the effects of time.
I expect that the final standings in the Australian conference for 2011 will be:
1. Waratahs
2. Reds
3. Brumbies
4. Rebels
5. Force
The Reds and Brumbies packs are equal. The Reds backline and coaching staff tip the balance in their favour.
The Force and Rebels are similarly lack lustre squads. McQueen and his 13 former captains will keep going when reality hits mid-season.
The bookies see it differently though:
1. Waratahs
2. Brumbies
3. Reds
4. Force
5. Rebels
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.