There is a wonderful book entitled The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell which discusses how little things can make a big difference in your life. It’s a book about change.
In particular, it’s a book that presents a new way of understanding why change so often happens as quickly and as unexpectedly as it does. You’re on the brink of something big and that little extra change of fortune or slice of luck tips things in your favour and success quickly follows.
For example, how does a novel written by an unknown author end up as national bestseller?
How did a pimply skinny kid from Stratford Ontario become the world wide phenomenon that is Justin Bieber?
How did Matt McKay go from being a run of the mill A-League player to a first choice Socceroo? What was the tipping point?
I think the answer to all those questions is the same. It’s that ideas and behaviour and messages and products sometimes behave just like social epidemics, flavour of the month popularity.
The Tipping Point is an examination of the social epidemics that surround us, how they are formed and what makes them become so popular.
The opposite effect is The Saturation Point.
We have all experienced the saturation point. In a work place people are repeatedly told how important some task is, yet somehow they forget to do it or even deliberately don’t do it.
Why is that?
Football coaches yell all the time during games. In their mind, they think they are helping the players on the field, but sometimes in reality, the players are ignoring them (or even worse, are doing the opposite) because they’ve hit the saturation point.
Advertising is a big one for saturation points. There is a fine line between showcasing a product till it reaches the tipping point and going too far and reaching the saturation point.
The person who is about to cross the saturation point would not necessarily know they are reaching it and starting to turn customers away, often not realising it till it is too late.
Once you have crossed the saturation point, it’s extremely difficult to come back to the tipping point again.
The AFL season has kicked off for 2011 and Sydney is not really noted for taking too much interest, but this hasn’t stopped the AFL strongly promoting their game, as they do.
The AFL has been very vocal lately. Andrew Demetriou has often told Australia that he will not accept second best and has set the AFL on yet another expansion path with 2 new Australian Rules teams to be introduced over the next two years.
Two very high profile rugby league players were bought by the AFL to win over the rugby league fans of NSW and Queensland and to be a part of their new AFL revolution.
Record amounts of money have also been spent trying to entice young New South Wales and Queensland children to play AusKick, the junior version of AFL.
The GWS Giants and Kevin Sheedy have been making a whole lot of noise about their team, their players, their new ground, but the team doesn’t even enter the AFL competition till 2012.
The AFL seem to be everywhere and always in the news. Radio, television, newspapers, all sorts of advertising for AFL.
They are even now getting into the weekend magazines, TV and chat shows. Case in point a very lengthy piece on Andrew Demetriou in this week’s Sydney Morning Herald’s Good Weekend. The little Aussie battler who comes good and is now the “goliath of Australian sport”.
No shortage of AFL programs on Sydney TV either. Back to back AFL programs – The Barassi Story and the documentary about Palestinians and Israelis playing a game of AFL.
So now the opening game of the 2011 AFL season kicked off last night with an attendance of 60,650. That’s a pretty good crowd for most sports competitions, but because the AFL has set its sights so high and based on previous season openers, it was in fact a very disappointing turn out.
86,972 AFL followers watched the same two teams open the season in 2009 – that’s a 31% drop in opening game attendance. Sure it’s only the first game of the season, but it’s certain to be something the AFL commissioners would be concerned about.
Has AFL reached the saturation point?
Seems as though the membership numbers for the Swans, and for that matter the Brisbane Lions too, are pretty low and well below their forecasts.
Sydney Swans CEO Andrew Ireland and Brisbane Lions CEO Michael Bowers have both come out in the press saying that they are in for a tough few seasons with the introduction of the GWS Giants and the GC Suns. Ireland had even commented that Sydney didn’t need a second AFL team just yet.
So, as we head into yet another AFL season in 2011 (is it their 160th) and after the relatively low MCG attendance for the first game of the season, is the game of AFL in 2011 at the Tipping Point or at the Saturation Point?
amazonfan
Roar Guru
So now that your 'only' 88, 000 talk was shown to be nonsense, you are now questioning its validity?
Bondy
Guest
Dogs r barkin. What a great game of Aussie Rules it's a pitty it was marred by violence after the game were Collingwood supporters attacked a Carlton supporter and put him in hospital with a smashed face.Oh thats right deny it that only happens at A League games .
Dogz R Barkn
Guest
It's entirely fake. In fact I'm wondering whether there were even 88,000 there - who knows what to believe these days.
slickwilly
Guest
hmmmmmmmm... soooo... souths and west tigers are within 70km of the sfs - what was there excuse
david
Guest
Interesting with aussie rules 70 % of the league is based in Melbourne, it gets walll to wall coverage in Melbourne geographically there's a 70 Km radius between all clubs and you play in a stadia that seats 90,000 why wasn't it full ?. And it hasn't beaten the N.R.L. nationally in television ratings. If you support North Melbourne or Melbourne you're never going too play at the M.C.G.on a friday night because you're a weak club so their shoved out the back somewhere else and don't draw strong crowds which then makes the sport look strong , i would go as far too say that 30%of that crowd have no corelation with either team I.E a North Melbourne or Melbourne supporter went to that game tonight knowing thier team will never play in the big occasion it's a faked concept.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
BTW, putting aside that it was a record, you can't say 'only' 88,000. That is a massive figure.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Not at all. The crowd was 88,181, which is a record for home-and-away games between the two clubs.
Dogz R Barkn
Guest
They were predicting 90,000 for tonight's game in some quarters, but it fell well short at only 88,000. To quote the wise words in this article: "... it was in fact a very disappointing turn out...it’s certain to be something the AFL commissioners would be concerned about." Surely the saturation point has now arrived?
Bondy
Guest
I.C.F. Good Read. I wrote to Sportsline (Sky News) suggesting why does A.F.L. always lead out with you're bulletin it's unfair and undemocratic. Where clearly every chart ,stat, demographic, population per head suggest the N.R.L. is just as competitive if not more so with T.V penetration. This article suggest's that by instilling that the Nation loves this sport but hasn't had the opportunity for growth is actually driving people away ( this is Australia's only true sport ) preach the A.F.L. and too those who were never intersted in the first place they just keep on walking. Why also does it dominate on the A.B.C.s Offsiders programme where with a half hour show the talk about Aussie Rules for 17 minutes a bit of N.R.L. mainly ( misdemeanour's) a bit of the Female Cricket World Cup and then flash A League scores through the bottom of the screen and then remind the public that it's war between the A.F.L. and the N.R.L. then close the show. Ask yourself this what year will the A.F.L. offer it's extended hand too another Nation and say brother Come Play and truly play a game of Australian Rules.
me too
Guest
unbelievable! twenty seven million posts on here going round and round and round. soccer fans - why are you even on here? it's not good for you - it reinforces the insignificance of your code and this does not sit well with you. it festers. don't let it - just get off the computer and go and kick a ball or something. as for the afl. yes it's the biggest footy code in australia - and the best imo. but it's indeed saturated. and over the next few seasons it will lose a bit of ground - most afl supporters are sick of where it's heading. it'll never compete with nrl in qld or nsw - never! but it will remain the top footy code. soccer will remain a poor cousin to both codes for generations. whinging won't change it. and who cares anyway - just enjoy your footy - whatever the shape and colour of the ball.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
You mean bias against poor excuses for journalism.
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
Sooner or later the Roar was going to have to go with the strength.
ItsCalledFootball
Roar Guru
AFL Bias is alive and well on the Roar.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
That article about 'improving' Australian Football was ridiculous. I wonder what ICF, MF, Fussball and the other soccer supporters/Australian Football haters would think if an article was written by an Australian Football supporter suggesting that soccer players be allowed to touch the ball with their hands? As for this article, ICF wrote it after just one game, which says it all.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Absolutely! :D
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Are you serious? You actually think there is a conspiracy? On a site which lists Australian Football as AFL and Association Football as Football? On a site in which numerous Anti-Australian Football extremists and trolls post the same pathetic comments again and again? You yourself wrote a ridiculous artcle about the AFL's falling crowd numbers AFTER ONE GAME?!!!!! The fact that your article was allowed, when you base your premise on just one round, shows that there certainly is no bias against you. I wish there was; if there was, poor excuses for 'journalism' such as your 'article', would never see the light of day! If your comments are edited out, it's because ridiculous comments based on almost no evidence written by soccer supporters with the sole purpose of attacking Australian Football, don't deserve to be published on proper journalistic pieces.
sherrin-burley-faulkner
Guest
Personally, i would say it's shows the moderators bias to screen loonies.
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
I'm saddened to hear that. On the other hand, I think everyone accepts that you were having a bit of a laugh, why not just leave it there. If I wanted to use your criteria for writing an article, I could write a new one about the A-League every single day of the year! I'm sure we all agree, that would be quite tedious. I think you would struggle to find a soccer article that has been written by an AFL person for the express purpose of "attacking" soccer. On the other hand, we've had four "AFL" articles written the past week by soccer people, all with the express purpose of denigrating the game. One bloke proposed changing the rules to allow throwing. You concluded from one match that the AFL was entering a period of decline (which is a bit silly). One of your comrades used Demetriou's comments about FIFA as a pretense to draw the same conclusions as you from flimsy evidence. It hasn't exactly been a high point for the Roar in terms of journalistic integrity.
ItsCalledFootball
Roar Guru
Just to let you know that I am trying to post my comments on Michael Di Fabrizio's article on "Don't panic about AFL crowds its only round one!" and I am not able to post any comments - all of them are edited out and don't make the blog. His article is obviously in response to people like myself pointing out that AFL crowds and ratings are falling for the opening round. I would like to add my comments but am not able to. This shows how precious AFL people are about their game and not able to take any crticism. Its a deliberate attempt to screen comments so they favour AFL. Compared to the AFL comments that attack football, this shows the moderators bias towards AFL. Just to let you all know.
Bayman
Guest
Fez, As I have already told you above - 9001. Don't believe all you read in the papers.