Has there ever been a footy club that has been predicted to finish in so many different positions during an AFL pre-season? Footy experts are stumped about where Gold Coast will be placed at the end of 2011.
Some think it’ll finish on the bottom of the ladder. Some predict it’ll finish with at least six wins at the end of the home-and-away season.
Some optimists gaze into their own crystal ball and envisage it scraping into the top eight.
Realistically, no one knows what to expect.
The critics who predict the Suns will finish towards the bottom of the ladder believe they need to get more games into their inexperienced list and develop a reputation as a football club before heading finals bound.
The majority of new teams who have entered the AFL over the past few decades have come into the competition with a history or a backbone.
The Swans relocated from South Melbourne to Sydney, the Lions merged with Fitzroy and the Brisbane Bears, while the Dockers, Eagles, Crows and Power all had a plethora of talent from their respective state leagues to choose from.
Unlike those teams, the Suns start completely from scratch. They enter the AFL with little history and no reputation whatsoever – not to mention they’re situated in a Rugby League-mad state as well.
Some also believe their playing list is too young to challenge any other team in the competition this season.
An extraordinary 27 players are under 20 years of age, while another 12 players are aged between 20 and 24. The average age of a player is 21 years and 80 days. Out of all the clubs to enter the competition over the past few decades, it’s by far the youngest.
Others genuinely believe the Suns can be successful in 2011.
History says new AFL clubs exceed expectations in their inaugural seasons. Out of the five teams who have entered the national competition since the VFL’s expansion in the 1980’s, the majority have exceeded many people’s pre-season beliefs.
When West Coast entered the competition in 1987, it managed to finish eighth of 14 teams. When Adelaide was born into the AFL in 1991, it sat ninth of 15 teams at the end of the home-and-away season.
Besides that stat, Gold Coast also has a massive asset up its sleeve: the best player in the competition.
All eyes will be fixated on Gary Ablett when the Suns run out for their first official match against Carlton on Saturday night. Why wouldn’t they be? The 26-year-old was arguably the biggest story of last season. He chose to leave his beloved Cats at the end of 2010 in search of new challenges and opportunities.
Oh, and perhaps for a little extra cash, too.
The time for opinions and conjecture is over and it’ll be fascinating to see how Ablett conducts himself on the field.
Despite his tremendous skill and willingness to win the footy, his performances will be heavily scrutinised throughout the season, particularly because he won’t have big bodied midfielders protecting and blocking for him during matches.
As the first ever captain of the Suns, we know Ablett will not lead by words – it’s just not how he rolls. He won’t direct traffic, order teammates where to run or inspire them with instantaneous speeches, ‘Brave Heart’-style.
Ablett will lead by example, by actions. And with the talent he possesses, he has every right to lead that way too. His ability to win the footy is as good as anyone else in the competition.
He demands the pill, hence his staggering average of 30.2 disposals and one goal per game over the past four seasons.
Besides acquiring Ablett’s services, the club’s recruiting staff – led by the best in the business in Scott Clayton – has chosen well-known and capable players to balance up with the youth.
Michael Rischitelli will keep on improving in the midfield, Josh Fraser will be crucial in the ruck and Jared Brennan might start to find some consistency at full forward.
Down back, Nathan Bock and Campbell Brown can be relied upon to do the jobs on key forwards, while Jarrod Harbrow and Nathan Krakouer will provide plenty of run and drive off the half-back line.
Let’s not forget the abundance of talented youth on the list, as well.
Number one draft pick David Swallow has already been likened to Chris Judd and Ben Cousins – try having those comparisons hanging over your head while running around on a footy field. While players like Josh Toy, Brandon Matera and Harley Bennell can potentially make some kind of impact this season.
There will be a genuine interest surrounding the Suns this season. With 12,000 club members already signed up, they should thoroughly enjoy the extra attention and fizz.
However looking at the Suns’ pre-season form, a top eight spot is a little unrealistic.
There are too many questions marks. The talent and potential is there, but can they realistically match it with the big boys this season? Will Ablett cope with the extra attention? How can they possibly win games outside of Queensland? Will the young bodies remain injury-free for the entire season?
All of these could be answered with a no.
However it won’t take long for coach Guy McKenna to develop a powerhouse team. Let’s not forget Gold Coast has recruited some of the best young talent in the country over the past two years and if Ablett and the rest of the 2010 uncontracted signings are still around in four to five years time, the Suns should figure heavily in September.
Still, that’s a long way off.
The Suns’ pass mark for 2011? They should be happy with at least four wins.
Cartman
Guest
Nice write-up. Agree with the fact that it shouldn't be based on how many wins they have this year, but more on the development side of things. They've got an extremely talented but young list, so I wouldn't be expecting too many wins just yet (4-6); they will be a powerhouse in a couple of seasons once the kids get a bit more experience under there belts and add a bit of bulk. Overall they should just be looking for solid development and improvement as the season goes on in the build up to 2012.
JustinK
Guest
I agree with you Finchy. 7 and 3 sound like good numbers for the coast
Stefan
Guest
Wins aren't the right measurement for a pass for the Suns. Agree with Herni 100%, if the team can find synergy and cohesion, the new franchise will definitely be considered successful. The true test will appear in the next few seasons when the younger guns have developed and honed their skills at the elite level
ODB
Guest
I might be a Sydney boy, but I have hopes for the Suns. A pass mark will be anywhere between 8-13. With quality players in their arsenal, it isn't too much to ask. With that said, my Blues better make their introduction to the AFL a forgettable one this weekend.
steve
Guest
Nice write up. Don't think they'll do much, steal a few from an unsuspecting team here or there. If they don't finish bottom it has to be considered a good start, they've had a better year than at least one club! Can't wait to see them underway though - they're carrying my Dreamteam.
The BM
Guest
Good article bjwaterworth. What the new young boys have to offer will be interesting to observe. Of course what they will find out is that an AFL season is not a sprint, it's a marathon! Let's see how many are still impressing us in the latter part of the season. As for the mature age recruits, well some might be hoping a bit more sun may resurrect their careers. Some have already plaved their best footy and others have been pretty inconsistent over the journey. I'm not sure a suntan is going to make the difference to these boys and we all know their has been only one successful resurrection.
tigergerry
Guest
to survive
Pffft
Guest
As long as Carlton win, that is a pass mark for Gold Coast. They are there to make up the numbers, build the brand, but not interfere with the real clubs. This is something West Coast, Port Ad, Ad should learn.
Pffft
Guest
Good to see the Queensland government deliberately dragging it's feet on finishing the stadium on the Gold Coast in an attempt to sabotage AFL. It's coming sooner or later to roll your league, don't you worry about that.
TomC
Guest
Don't think they play any of those teams at home. Play the Lions twice. Both times at the Gabba.
KEANU
Guest
The Suns are finals bound in my opinion, starting strong previous teams have proven that the first half of a first season brings success, i think that the long term of the season will play on the younger brigade and the second half will be no where near as good. 7 Wins in 12 rounds, then 4-5 through the second half of the year, the passmark for finals this year will be 10-12 wins as usual, suns to scrap into 9th this year.
sherrin-burley-faulkner
Guest
Just read a article on WWOS stating that Wayne Carey says Hunt's form etc does not justify him a game for the GC, must say, i agree with him, but will/has Hunt been included to provide a enforcer type role for his baby faced teammates. If he has a enforcer type role that makes the opposition turn their head or hear footsteps, then maybe it is justified, but can Hunt clean up players with a Byron pickett hip and shoulder, or Glen Archer kamakazi lunges at the ball.
Jtak
Guest
As long as Gold Coast manage to avoid the spoon their season can be described a success. Great bunch of young players and getting games pumped in to them will be beneficial long-term
Herni
Guest
I dont think that a pass mark for the gold coast can really be measured in a specific amount of wins. for the gold coasts season to be considered a success, they will just hope for their young players to gel as a cohesive unit, as well as develop as players, ready to challenege seriously in years to come
Ian
Guest
Thoroughly agree with most of the article, great read, definitely never need high expectations going into year 1, although with some of the teams i'm seeing this year I don't think maybe 8 wins is out of reach for this pack of young guns! But as you've said, no experience will be of huge detrement, after one, maybe 2 seasons where they all have that many more games under their belts and that much more time to gel they'll definitely be a force come 2014-2015. Fantastic read, look forward to more of your work.
kick to kick
Guest
The propect is that they will fall away badly in the second half of the season - as young bodies get tired and mature recuits taking the load get injured. But they will pull off a couple of surprise wins. And a late season decline won't necessasrily mean they've not progressed. Watch out after 3 seasons.
Jeremy
Guest
Great write up Bjwaterworth!! Strong points and very relevant statements made, my personal preference, disregarding what's been said is: a handful of wins but more importantly 22 games into all the youngsters especially. We all know what Ablett, Brown and Bock can do, but we haven't seen Swallow, Hunt, Matera and Dixon have to offer. I can't wait to see them in action and would have to say a pass mark is developing the young players while collecting roughly 16-20 premiership points.
Alberto Collins
Guest
I believe the Gold Coast's aim should be to win 5 or 6 games for the year, but more importantly they need to develop their list and get games into their young inexperienced players. This year should all be about building for the future for the GC and making a stance of what the club stands for in the future.
Frosty Baird
Guest
I dont think I've read a more insightful synopsis bjwaterworth. Bring on more of your articles for us football efficienados to digest. For me the Suns have the world at their feet. I wouldnt be surprised if they scrape into the bottom half of the final eight, but realistically, a pass mark at the seasons end end would have to be 5 or 6 wins.
Finchy
Guest
The Sun's have the media all over them for their AFL debut. I think they will come out very hard in the first few rounds looking to impress. But the young bodies wont be able to sustain a full season at the top level and will fade toward the end of the season. I believe that 7 wins would be a good aim for the young side, maybe 3 wins against quality opponents? Such a young team has the potential to provide upsets...