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Has there ever been a footy club that has been predicted to finish in so many different positions during an AFL pre-season? Footy experts are stumped about where Gold Coast will be placed at the end of 2011.
Some think it’ll finish on the bottom of the ladder. Some predict it’ll finish with at least six wins at the end of the home-and-away season.
Some optimists gaze into their own crystal ball and envisage it scraping into the top eight.
Realistically, no one knows what to expect.
The critics who predict the Suns will finish towards the bottom of the ladder believe they need to get more games into their inexperienced list and develop a reputation as a football club before heading finals bound.
The majority of new teams who have entered the AFL over the past few decades have come into the competition with a history or a backbone.
The Swans relocated from South Melbourne to Sydney, the Lions merged with Fitzroy and the Brisbane Bears, while the Dockers, Eagles, Crows and Power all had a plethora of talent from their respective state leagues to choose from.
Unlike those teams, the Suns start completely from scratch. They enter the AFL with little history and no reputation whatsoever – not to mention they’re situated in a Rugby League-mad state as well.
Some also believe their playing list is too young to challenge any other team in the competition this season.
An extraordinary 27 players are under 20 years of age, while another 12 players are aged between 20 and 24. The average age of a player is 21 years and 80 days. Out of all the clubs to enter the competition over the past few decades, it’s by far the youngest.
Others genuinely believe the Suns can be successful in 2011.
History says new AFL clubs exceed expectations in their inaugural seasons. Out of the five teams who have entered the national competition since the VFL’s expansion in the 1980’s, the majority have exceeded many people’s pre-season beliefs.
When West Coast entered the competition in 1987, it managed to finish eighth of 14 teams. When Adelaide was born into the AFL in 1991, it sat ninth of 15 teams at the end of the home-and-away season.
Besides that stat, Gold Coast also has a massive asset up its sleeve: the best player in the competition.
All eyes will be fixated on Gary Ablett when the Suns run out for their first official match against Carlton on Saturday night. Why wouldn’t they be? The 26-year-old was arguably the biggest story of last season. He chose to leave his beloved Cats at the end of 2010 in search of new challenges and opportunities.
Oh, and perhaps for a little extra cash, too.
The time for opinions and conjecture is over and it’ll be fascinating to see how Ablett conducts himself on the field.
Despite his tremendous skill and willingness to win the footy, his performances will be heavily scrutinised throughout the season, particularly because he won’t have big bodied midfielders protecting and blocking for him during matches.
As the first ever captain of the Suns, we know Ablett will not lead by words – it’s just not how he rolls. He won’t direct traffic, order teammates where to run or inspire them with instantaneous speeches, ‘Brave Heart’-style.
Ablett will lead by example, by actions. And with the talent he possesses, he has every right to lead that way too. His ability to win the footy is as good as anyone else in the competition.
He demands the pill, hence his staggering average of 30.2 disposals and one goal per game over the past four seasons.
Besides acquiring Ablett’s services, the club’s recruiting staff – led by the best in the business in Scott Clayton – has chosen well-known and capable players to balance up with the youth.
Michael Rischitelli will keep on improving in the midfield, Josh Fraser will be crucial in the ruck and Jared Brennan might start to find some consistency at full forward.
Down back, Nathan Bock and Campbell Brown can be relied upon to do the jobs on key forwards, while Jarrod Harbrow and Nathan Krakouer will provide plenty of run and drive off the half-back line.
Let’s not forget the abundance of talented youth on the list, as well.
Number one draft pick David Swallow has already been likened to Chris Judd and Ben Cousins – try having those comparisons hanging over your head while running around on a footy field. While players like Josh Toy, Brandon Matera and Harley Bennell can potentially make some kind of impact this season.
There will be a genuine interest surrounding the Suns this season. With 12,000 club members already signed up, they should thoroughly enjoy the extra attention and fizz.
However looking at the Suns’ pre-season form, a top eight spot is a little unrealistic.
There are too many questions marks. The talent and potential is there, but can they realistically match it with the big boys this season? Will Ablett cope with the extra attention? How can they possibly win games outside of Queensland? Will the young bodies remain injury-free for the entire season?
All of these could be answered with a no.
However it won’t take long for coach Guy McKenna to develop a powerhouse team. Let’s not forget Gold Coast has recruited some of the best young talent in the country over the past two years and if Ablett and the rest of the 2010 uncontracted signings are still around in four to five years time, the Suns should figure heavily in September.
Still, that’s a long way off.
The Suns’ pass mark for 2011? They should be happy with at least four wins.
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