Who wins: relentless Pies or wise Cats?

By Ben Waterworth / Roar Guru

Want to impress your girlfriend by cooking an exotic meal all by yourself? You’re in luck. Here’s the recipe for a dish that tastes nicer than anything you’ll ever see on MasterChef.

1. Carefully place 22 classy Collingwood players onto the hallowed MCG turf and an esteemed coaching panel into the grandstand.
2. Add 22 desperate Geelong players and a young, vibrant group of coaches.
3. Sprinkle on some Friday night exposure.
4. Season with over 80,000 spectators.
5. Stir for a good two and a half hours until the players are spent.

You and your missus can try this meal out for free if you want by watching the highly anticipated match between champion teams Collingwood and Geelong at the MCG on Friday night.

Both the Magpies and the Cats have started the season in superb form, with neither dropping a game so far. But by 10pm on Friday night, one team’s momentum will be halted, while the other might have set-up the rest of their season.

If there’s one negative surrounding the Pies so far this season, it’s whether they’ve proven themselves against the best yet.

They’ve beaten Carlton, Richmond and Essendon, three young and flourishing teams that didn’t play in the finals last year. They recently toppled the Western Bulldogs, a team that is playing nowhere near its potential.

Conversely, many say Geelong has already proven itself in 2011. It beat St Kilda in Round 1, then Fremantle at Patersons Stadium, Sydney at the SCG and Hawthorn on Easter Tuesday. All of those teams played in the 2010 finals series and, except for the Saints, look set to repeat the does in 2011.

However, the Pies are a professional and disciplined footy side.

Every player – whether their job is to kick a bag of goals, gather 30 plus disposals or wear the substitute vest – can be relied upon to execute their role to the highest degree.

When opposition clubs think of Collingwood, they think of uncompromising defensive pressure. The Pies are just as damaging without the ball than with it. They hunt in packs of three or four in an attempt to cause a turnover and once they’ve forced the mistake, they run and spread with precision and tenacity.

Collingwood’s style of play has forced other teams to change their own game plans in order to topple the Pies. That’s a tremendous achievement and the sign of a dominant side.

The Pies are ranked number one for clearances and contested possessions and fifth for tackles. Along with inside 50’s, those stats are the biggest Key Performance Indicators (KPI’s) in modern-day footy. No wonder they’re so good.

Down the Princes Highway, the Cats want revenge. They want payback.

The last time these two teams met, Collingwood thumped Geelong by 41 points in the first preliminary final last season. It was a humiliating loss for the Cats, who were beaten by a Pies side that seized their opportunity and exposed the Cats’ weaknesses.

Geelong’s loss prompted numerous questions. Is the Cats’ golden era over? Is this a changing of the guard? Is Geelong’s high-possession game style ‘old news’? Do senior players like Cameron Ling and Darren Milburn – who were exposed for leg speed that night – still have what it takes to play at AFL level?

Enter Chris Scott, a confident and proficient young coach who has taken all before him this season and has reunited the playing group.

No doubt Scott has been the major reason behind Geelong’s resurgence this season. He’s given the players new energy, which was evident through the almost disrespectful treatment of North Melbourne last weekend. The Cats tackled with ferocity and pushed the younger Kangaroo bodies over as if they were matchsticks.

Scott’s made obvious changes to the game plan – as he should’ve too. The Cats are kicking the ball longer and more often. They are ranked fourth in the league for long kicks, whereas they were ranked seventh last season. They’re also ranked third for contested possessions, compared to fifth in 2010.

Perhaps the biggest change though has been the heavier emphasis on defence. Geelong has always been a great defensive team, but it’s gone to new levels in 2011. The Cats have clearly conceded the least amount of points, averaging 63.5 per game. It’s a scary though for all opposition clubs, including Collingwood.

So who wins?

The midfield battle will be fascinating. Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and Luke Ball versus Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood and James Kelly. Hard to pick a winner from that.

With Darren Jolly still sidelined due to a knee injury, Geelong will have a distinct advantage in the ruck. Brad Ottens is in tremendous form and should dominate the combination of Cameron Wood and Leigh Brown. Advantage Geelong.

But what sways me towards tipping Collingwood is its tall forwards. Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes have kicked 30 goals between them so far and pose a much bigger threat than Tom Hawkins and James Podsiadly.

Collingwood for mine. Just.

How about you?

The Crowd Says:

2011-05-12T03:08:35+00:00

C Judd, Carlton, 3 votes

Guest


Cats need some forward presence if they are going to knock off the Pies. It would be great for Tom Hawkins to shine on a big stage. The Cats fans have been very patient, but Tom's time is running out. If he played for the Bombers he would have been booed by now!!! C'mon Cats. It would be so great to see Eddie & Co squirm. Very little errors/turnovers by the Cats should get them across the line....I think.......I hope.....just not sure. Not putting any money on it.

2011-05-11T16:07:17+00:00

amazonfan

Roar Guru


I would love for Geelong to win, however I fear Collingwood will prove too strong for them.

2011-05-11T10:50:47+00:00

The recalcitrant

Guest


Geelong should win it with a leg in the air.

2011-05-11T04:42:19+00:00

adam

Guest


Geelong are the only team in the top 8 not featuring in the top 8 goal kicking for the year to date. This could count against the cats as their across the board contribution required to kick a winning score could be restricted against the pies. I know that the counter arguement is also valid that they're not relying on a main target for the bulk of their goals, but having someone that you could rely on for 3-4 goals each week has to have it's advantages. The cats are possibly better suited to the tall Collingwood forward line, with 3 strong tall defenders in Taylor, Scarlett & Lonergan (I'm hesistant to include him but he was excellent against Franklin a few weeks ago). I see the pies smaller quick forwards in Didak, Krakour, Blair plus the on ballers playing forward as their biggest challenge.

2011-05-11T01:21:30+00:00

Redb

Roar Guru


Collingwood have 3 factors against them. 1. Coming off the bye. 2. No Jolly in the ruck 3. Lost their Captain Maxwell. I'm tipping the Pies by 3 goals.

2011-05-11T01:10:28+00:00


Good story Ben! Geelong have always been a good attacking team but, as you rightly pointed out, it is their defensive skills which are really working for them this year. The big hole (if there was one) in Collingwood's game was their poor kicking on goal which they seem to have fixed with Dawes and Krakouer. My figures tell me Collingwood by thirteen points so why does my gut tell the Pies by four goals? I don't know but what I do know is that the Cats are the only team, at the present, who are any chance of beating the premiers.

2011-05-11T00:46:50+00:00

Handles O'Love

Guest


What a spot for Chris Scott to find himself in, as a 7 game senior coach. This will be a classic game, and in front of another huge crowd, unfortunately I will be at the Reds v Blues, so will have to rely on Foxtel. Collingwood season-to-date crowd number must be close to an all time record. Collingwood have risen comfortably to every challenge, but I still thinkn this might be where they stumble. I am not sure that htey can pull off their domination of stoppages against Geelong. Ben hit the nail on the head when he recalled how bad Ling looked in the prelim last year, but nobody else has made him look that bad since, so I wonder if he was carrying an injury that night.

2011-05-11T00:03:24+00:00

Football Fan

Guest


I don't think it will be close. Whoever wins will win by a long way. Hope I'm wrong though!

2011-05-10T21:33:42+00:00

PaddyBoy

Guest


I'm gonna tip the Cats evem though they're outsiders, they'll be dying to set the record straight, and are Collingwoods first big game. Collingwood are definately favourites, but look what happened after people wrote them off last time.

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