The tragic state of Australian tennis will be bared to the world at the French Open, with Sam Stosur the only chance of success. And a rough one at that.
In 23 Slams, Stosur has only reached the quarters, or better, three times.
* The semis of the French in 2009 – beaten by Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-4 6-7 6-3.
* The French final last year – lost to Francesca Schiavone 6-4 7-6.
* And the quarters of the US Open last year – beaten by Kim Clijsters 6-4 5-7 6-3.
The second Slam of the year starts tomorrow at Roland Garros on the red clay, with Stosur seeded eight drawn to meet Czech Iveta Benesova in the opening round.
Providing Stosur brings her power-game and doesn’t choke, the 27-year-old should make it safely through to the round of 16 and a meeting with world number one Caroline Wozniacki.
One of the major benefits in being seeded eight is that there are no top seeds lurking nearby in the early rounds, and Stosur must make the most of it.
But the biggest problem throughout her 11-year career is while she’s beaten the likes of Serena Williams, Justine Henin, Lindsay Davenport, and Amelie Maurismo at their best, she’s lost to far too many rank outsiders.
That’s why Stosur has won only two titles – Osaka in 2009 and Charleston last year – and lost seven finals, the latest to Maria Sharapova in Rome two weeks go.
And why her career stats stand at 332 wins and 238 losses. A 58% win-rate won’t get the job done.
Nonetheless, Sam Stosur is the only chance to end Australian women’s singles drought at the French, last won by Evonne Goolagong Cawley in 1980.
The other Aussies on duty – Casey Dellaqua, Anastasia Rodionova, Jelena Dokic, and Jamila Gaidosova – will have trouble from the opening round, with Dokic the best of them.
But my tip is Maria Sharapova to complete her career Grand Slam, to go with her Wimbledon, Australian, and US Open crowns – the task made easier by Serena and Venus Williams still suffering long-term injuries.
On her day, Sharapova can out-scream, out-hit, and out-think anyone on the women’s tour, and waltz away with the fashion stakes, as well.
In the men’s, Lleyton Hewitt returns to the court for the first time since March 10. He’s played only eight matches all year with a 4-4 return, his wiry frame susceptible to injury and illness.
First up for the former world number one, Wimbledon, and US Open champion is Spaniard Albert Montanes. And he’s no picnic for the 30-year-old Australian, who is sadly playing for memory.
On his day, Hewitt was the greatest little fighter the sport has ever seen, but his speed has gone and so too his incredible ability to retrieve seemingly impossible shots. His hallmark.
The fact Hewitt is now ranked 64 and falling tells the story.
The only other Australian on duty – 18-year-old Bernard Tomic, ranked 193 in the world – takes on beatable Argentine Carlos Berlocq first up, but the Spaniard Nicholas Almago will have far too much ammunition to fire at the Aussie in the second round.
So the fact an Australian hasn’t won the French since Rod Laver in 1969 on his way to his second Grand Slam, will remain intact.
But three burning questions in 2011 need to be answered:
* Can Rafael Nadal make it six French Opens to equal Bjorn Borg’s record?
* Can Novak Djokovic continue his remarkable run his year, unbeaten in 39 matches, winning seven titles already, and it’s only May?
* And has Roger Federer run his race?
The key to all three is the Serbian, Djokovic.
He’s already beaten Nadal four from four this year to capture the Indian Wells-Miami Masters double on hard-court, and the Madrid-Rome Masters double on clay
And he’s beaten Federer in a semi of the Australian Open, the final in Dubai, and a semi in Indian Wells, in their only three meetings.
But Djokovic has been dealt the toughest French Open draw of the three big guns.If the seeds are right, he’ll have to beat Federer and Nadal to win. Nadal must beat Andy Murray and Djokovic.
But it’s no laydown misere that Federer will reach the semis. So far this year he’s been beaten seven times by Djokovic (3), Nadal (2), and by journeymen Richard Gasquet and Jurgen Melzer.
Nonetheless, it promises to be a fascinating three-way battle for the big prize between the big three, with Juan Martin del Potro the smokey.
But the Argentine has the hard-to-beat Croatian Ivo Karlovic first up in another battle of the bazooka serves.
Karlovic is the tallest on tour at 6ft 10 (208cm), but del Potro is no shrinking violet at 6ft 6 (198cm).- their wing spans look like 747s.
Bring it on.
Bondy
Guest
Tennis on the decline, i see it more as a greater number of Countrie's are now playing the sport, look at the Baltic States, Russia ,Ukraine to a lesser extent China Li Na .We were a great Tennis nation when only a handful nations only played the sport such as America, Spain , Great Britain and the odd Argentine. Tennis has become more of global sport over the past 15 years in relation to top line participants and some of us cant accept that. In essence we were a dominant force in tennis when really only 5-6 other nations played the sport, look at our record through the 1950 - 80 s it's staggering, hopefully over the next 5-10 years we can unleash a champ. In saying that good luck to the Australian's.
KING ARTHUR USA
Guest
An experience tennis coach said many years ago, that tennis will go back to the country club where it came from. To learn tennis it does require one to one tuition
Midfielder
Guest
The officials who ran / run tennis many moons ago took their eye off the ball .... Tennis courts started closing down and the cost to get a player coached went tho the roof.. Tennis struggles to get the best talent in Australian sport and has for a long time... and nothing look like changing soon... I see tennis in a slow but steady decline.... in 15 years it will struggle to get any real attention...
KING ARTHUR USA
Guest
Tennis requires finance, the great country of Australia that has produced magnificent tennis players in the past,all had to leave the country and travel around the world to play in the tournament. The dollar is needed. Tennis is an individual sport and the tour can be a grind, the 'old days' of squad traveling is near non existent at the top level. There are many team sports where a comfortable living can be made without relying on near peak performances to win a match.With large Sponsorship Australia will produce world class tennis players again. The poms would take Aussies success over the last 30 years with Cash and Hewitt wins at Wimbledon.
azterodt
Guest
Aussie tennis, once so dominant, has gone the way of the other tennis power in times past. Since Bill Tilden a male US player has won Wimbledon 33 times, an Aussie 15 times. Now neither country has no backable challenger. In fact, it's lowly Canada that has by far the best prospect in Milos Raonic who's leaped from nowhere to 28 just behind Del Potro. Fish and Roddick are at 10 and 11 but it seems a little late for both of them.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Nadal may win RG but let's not downplay his four straight losses in Masters finals. He could lose his number one ranking even if he wins RG, so the Masters losses are certainly an issue.
Thomas
Guest
Deleted after thankfully the editor deleted the previous comment
Brendon
Guest
She choked big time in the French Open final against a player she beats comfortably - before and since. The final wasnt even a contest. Schiavone demolished Stosur. Nadal will win the French Open. Nadal has learned to pace himself better through the Masters 1000 tournaments. In Cincinnati and Canada last year Nadal didn't win either and went on to win the US Open. Nadal has already won 19 1000 titles, more than any other player (Federer and Agassi are on 17). Its slams and the end of year championship nadal must now focus on. Good chance Murray and Federer will be knocked out early on. Especially Murray. Federer might grab another Wimbledon or US Open title but he wont win another French.
Lee
Guest
Isn't Novak a Serb? -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Matt Wilson
Guest
Great preview and fair assessment of Australian tennis. I would say it's a bit rough to rate Gadjisova behind Dokic, who is almost as washed up as Lleyton. Since losing former hubby Sam Groth (who could forget his tirade at her back in January) Gadjisova continues to stay focussed on tour. Look for her to make the 3rd round and put up a real fight to go even deeper. It's also worth mentioning that while Del Potro (recent hip injury in tow) faces ageing giant Karlovic, at the other end of the draw Nadal faces young cannon John Isner. At 6'9" the American moves far better than Karlovic and despite having recently slipped outside the worlds top 20 has enough of a game to take Rafa to a tie break or two, possibly even grabbing a set along the way. Were he to actually do this (and I doubt he will) it could be further evidence that the about-to-turn 25 Spaniard is indeed on the decline physically, owing to his extreme physical style of play.
Aware
Guest
It is fashionable to call Sam Stosur and others "chokers", but I think too much is asked of women in sport. They have a biology that is designed to nurture life, including reproductive -related functions that men don't obviously have. Too much vigorous exercise can lead to malfunctions in the female anatomy and it is ludicrous that they should be expected to perform on a par with men or perform at a very high physical level. All we men have to worry about is not getting hit in the vulnerable spot: and that is highly unlikely in tennis. From about ages 13 or 14, women's biology becomes better suited for nurturing and gestation than hard physical pursuits. This is a fact of life that is indisputable. Better to just let nature take its course and expect variable performances from female players.
David Lord
Guest
Rough is sadly deadly accurate Daniel - this is not 2009, nor 2010, but 10 tournaments for Sam Stosur in 2011 for two losses in the second round, five losses in the third round, one quarter final, one semi, and one final, thumped 6-2 6-4 by Maria Sharapova. Add two losses to Italy in the Fed Cup, and it's 19 wins and 12 losses for 2011 - that's rough.
Greg Russell
Roar Guru
1. "the 27-year-old should make it safely through to the round of 16 and a meeting with world number one Caroline Wozniacki." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_French_Open_%E2%80%93_Women%27s_Singles confirms that in fact Stosur and Wozniacki are seeded to meet in the quarter-finals. (There would be something very wrong with the draw if the 1st and 8th seeds were drawn to meet in the round of 16). 2. "my tip is Maria Sharapova" This has also been my "secret" tip since I heard of Sharapova's win in Rome last weekend, the absence of Venus and Serena, and the lack of match play of Clijsters. Women's tennis is in a flaky, desultory state. Schiavone is my no. 2 tip, then probably Kim.
Daniel
Guest
French open record: 2009 - semis, 2010 - final. How could you possibly say it's a rough chance of anything -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.