(Personally I’m a bit cynical and think the AFL have already decided what the league will look like beyond 2013, as it seems unlikely the broadcasters who signed on for the new TV deal in April would not have known how many games they were buying. But that’s just a theory.)
Former Richmond vice president Brendan Schwab, now in the soccer community in the role of chief executive of the Australian Professional Footballers Association, has suggested dividing what will be an 18-team competition in half to create two nine-team divisions.
Based on 2013 finishing positions, in 2014 the top nine teams would be in the higher “Premiership” division and the bottom nine in the lower “Championship” division.
According to The Age: “The home-and-away season would comprise 25 matches, with each team playing those in its division twice and those in the other division once. Division one would return to the McIntyre final-five system, with the side finishing on top having a bye in the opening round of the finals.”
“Teams that finished sixth and seventh in division one would join teams finishing 12th, 13th and 14th – the latter three in division two – in playing off to avoid relegation. Teams finishing eighth and ninth in division one would be relegated. In division two, the top two ranked teams would automatically be promoted.”
It’s a slightly complicated system (read the article for a colourful depiction) however that fact alone shouldn’t rule it out.
What should rule it out is one or two obvious – and highly concerning – flaws.
Even leaving aside the potential financial ramifications for relegated sides, and looking at it purely from an on-field perspective, all you need to do is look at what the divisions would look like this year had the system already been in place and you get a worrying picture.
Carlton, currently one of four genuine premiership contenders, would be in the second division. The eighth-placed side of the previous season gets relegated, meaning the Blues would not be part of this year’s premiership race at all.
West Coast, the big improvers of 2011, would be stuck in the second division also and thus be unable to compare with the best teams.
St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs would both be first division teams – albeit first division teams facing relegation – and would probably be a far more realistic chance of making the finals at this stage of the competition with less teams to leapfrog.
Basically, Schwab’s plan messes with the natural ebbs and flows of the current system. A team’s rise or fall can be rapid and the example of applying the proposed relegation system to this season exposes this.
Schwab argues that with two more teams there will be an increase in “inconsequential” matches, but you have to wonder if the difference caused by just two teams will be all that noticeable.
The way things are now are fine. There’s simply no need for a radical overhaul.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
No, it's not particularly ground-breaking. I also suspect this will go the way of Mark Williams's finals idea.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
I don't know. Schwabby himself had said that he'd been working on the idea for the past year, not sure why. It's not a pure 1st/2nd div concept, nevertheless, it's hardly groundbreaking stuff either.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Why would it take a year though? The idea itself, having two divisions, is not new, and so all one would have to do is work out the specifics. Does it really take a year to do that?
The Cattery
Roar Guru
And good luck to them all.
steve ellis
Guest
Actually the joke is the notion of 'wooden spoon'.... sounds like 'playtime' at kindie...means nothing as there is always next year... how qaint . in contrast...the fight for survival relegation /promotion is competiton in its rawest.... creates a level of tension and emotion 'same ol same ol' AFL could only dream of.... ever seen the emotion of fans when their once great clubs like Leeds and Newcastle drop to lower divisions..etc..? its real...certainly does not need 10 pages of hype in a suburban tabloid
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Some classic Demetrious responses to the Div 2 relegation idea. Apparently he laughed off the idea, saying it wouldn't happen this century, and got stuck into the media for even reporting it: "It's obviously been a slow news week." And on Brendan Schwab working on the idea for a year (head of the soccer players' association): "I'm not sure what soccer would think of him spending a year on it." Good point!
Roarchild
Guest
It's only a division two in that you can't win the premiership. Even in division two you still play all the teams in division 1 (but 1 round instead of two). Same cap and draft system means the competitive gap won't grow. I think it goes too far and is over the top in trying to fix a minor problem (giving the teams out of the finals race something to play for). Maybe extra prize money based on ladder position would be a more reasonable idea. Fun concept for debate though. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
kick to kick
Guest
The relegation option is fanciful and by the end of the season games involving bottom teams in the bottom division would become even more suspect as these teams would have no third division in which to drop, and would have even more incentive to maximise draft picks to work back into division one.
Daniels
Guest
You want a cool model not involving relegation http://www.thefixture.com.au/main.cfm This guy suggests that round 1-17 is play off, where each team plays the others once, and who is the home or away team is turned around annually. At that point they split into 3 groups, the top 6, middle 6 and bottom 6. They then play the other 5 once more, making a 22 game season. The site is quite detailed, and he even provides mock tables and draws as examples
Redb
Roar Guru
Wouldnt change the potential for some clubs to tank. They need to get rid of the priority pick.
dave
Guest
would it make tanking more rife?
KP
Guest
Thats what's great about the AFL - salary cap and draft picks, it really is a great leveller. Those systems are there to prevent perpetually bottom sides. The AFL is great at making its "blockbuster" clubs having favourable draws (see collingwood- not their fault, everyone wants the gate receipts but gotta have a dig at 'em), so I wouldn't be surpised to find a non-Melbourne side finding a very handy draw if it spends too long in the second conference, particularly those in markets the AFL is making priorities. You're right - Conference system isn't really plausable - too many clubs in Melbourne. TV is paying and if TV doesn't have enough "blockbuster, meaningfull" matches then its not going to invest. Not a zero prospect, I'd put it at 40-60%
Redb
Roar Guru
The bottom 4 teams are simply discarded towards the end in this model.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
KP it's a good argument. But if you get stuck in the bottom half of that "2nd division" for, say, 4 years - your club is an absolute dead duck with zero chance of recovery. Worse still, if, say, two Sydney clubs got stuck in the bottom half of the "2nd division" for a few years, everything that has taken 30 years to build up could vanish in the space of 3 years. This idea has zero prospect of eventuating - zero prospect. The Super Rugby idea of 3 conferences would have a better prospect, but even then, problems emerge, least of which is the fact that ten of 18 clubs are still in and around Melbourne.
Redb
Roar Guru
White, Good points. The problem with your suggestion of a top division taken from VFL, SANFL, WAFL is that the VFL had already attained the premier league status (1960s onwards) and was attracting some of the best players from the SANFL & WAFL. This may have changed over time, but even people in SA, WA & Tas followed VFL teams. VFL teams would also dominate due to superior player numbers.
KP
Guest
I think you're missing the point here. The problem will be that with 18 teams in the comp the final 8-10 games of the season will have a LOT of dead rubber games. Its not even halfway through the season but there's already 3 teams you can already rule out of making the finals and the next 3 teams above them aren't looking any better. Add 2 extra teams to the mix and that makes 8 teams from mid-way through the season not having much to play for. The concept of promotion/relegation isn't to make it the EPL (we wont have only a couple of teams winning all the time - salary cap is the great leveller), but rather to have more "important" matches. With a relegation system you know by round 10 you're not going to make the finals but hell you dont want to drop a division. It also helps developing sides improve - you play in the championship against weaker opposition, develop your players then get promoted and have a crack at the finals with your best list. Remember - TV companies aren't paying for dead rubber games. The more blockbuster games the better. It'll happen - everyone will whinge and moan but there cant be soo many dead rubber games.
gazz
Roar Pro
If it aint broke.....
Whites
Guest
It would only work with two 12 team divisions so both divisions would have a 22 round home and away season. Bring in Tasmania, the ACT and 4 teams from WA and SA to make the 24. Only have P&R for 1 or 2 teams. Having 2 out of 9 teams relegated each year would be a very unstable competition. The EPL is 3 ot of 20 each year. Imagine if the bottom 7 were relegated each year. Someone mentioned this before but I wonder what the AFL would look like today if the VFL had gone down a different expansion path. Imagine what would have happened if the top teams from the VFL, SANFL and WAFL had formed a top division and the bottom teams a 2nd division. Pure speculation of course but it's probably the only code in Australia that could have managed it.
Redb
Roar Guru
Don't like the concept of relegation in OZ anyway but this proposal removes the basic tenet of AFL fans, the chance for all teams to at least make the finals. The EPL is a joke when you consider the domination of Man U and to a lesser extent Chelsea and Arsenal over the decades. As a result in the EPL/other divisions for the majority of clubs its just about gaining promotion or avoiding relegation as that is all they can aspire to. It works for the EPL also due to the large population in their boroughs packed together in small area. A second division AFL club would struggle to attract sponsorship & membership, it could spell the deathknell for several AFL clubs. Perhaps that is what Schwab as head of the Soccer players assoc wants? Surely not.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Good analysis Michael, a rubbish proposal. And I think you are spot on that the AFL and the broadcasters would have a pretty good idea of the structure of the comp for 2012 to 2016. You don't pay out $1.25 billion for a vague yet-to-be determined product.