The South Africans are sweating on this match. And so they should be. The Waratahs can clinch a top six spot and only have the Brumbies in their way. This could mean one South African team misses out.
Based on Matt Giteau’s last kick against the Reds, the Waratahs will have to do more than turn up.
The Brumbies are improving. They haven’t changed their game pattern (according to the stats) from their last two wins. So what are the stats between these two teams that will have a lot of South Africans interested and watching?
The stats show some real differences between the two teams and their style of play this season. But before we get into it too much, just the usual disclaimer that all this data comes from me coding all the games, mostly live.
The first difference is in the kicking game. The Waratahs have the highest average for tactical kicks from the hand in the Super Rugby competition with 26.9 per game.
The Brumbies average 20.2 kicks per game and undertake the fewest kicks. This includes touch finders and kick that are errors (taken back inside the 22 etc). If the Waratahs are hoping to get a game of aerial ping-pong going the Brumbies are unlikely to get involved in that.
When the Brumbies do kick, 50 per cent of time it is to find touch, whereas the Waratahs look to find touch from 38 per cent of their kicks. If the Brumbies are hoping to set for the lineout from finding touch, they might not get the chance because the Waratahs lead the competition quick throw-ins.
Both team favour throwing to the middle of the lineout regardless of who is there. The Waratahs are averaging half a lineout loss per game and the Brumbies 1.5.
The Brumbies average 100.7 rucks and mauls per game, leading the competition. This is 20 per cent more that the Waratahs who average 80.3 rucks and mauls per game. Both sides hold onto the ball at contact for roughly the same amount of phases with the Brumbies slightly ahead with 3.7 phases compared to the Waratahs 3.4.
The Brumbies have the ball more and also lead the competition in ‘lost possession/turnovers’ average 24.4 per game. They lose the ball at the ruck, after taking it in 4.8 times per game, more than any other team. The Waratahs average 19.6 lost possessions/turnovers per game with 9.9 of these being handling errors, the fifth highest in the competition – something they will need to tidy up.
When it comes to points on the board, the Waratahs are averaging 3.1 tries per match playing local derbies compared to the Brumbies average 2.1 tries. However Giteau could be the difference when it comes to the penalties as his kicking average is 90 per cent (36 from 40) – the highest in the competition. Kurtely Beale is on a respectable 72% (28 from 39 penalty attempts).
To score points it helps to be in the opposition’s 22 and the Waratahs have averaged six minutes 15 seconds per game counting only when the ball is in play or contestable (third highest in the competition). The Brumbies are ninth in the competition averaging four minutes 24 seconds, about the middle of the competition.
So if the Waratahs hope to get the Brumbies engaged in a kicking game, statistically they won’t. The Waratahs are likely to get down the right end and it just comes down to whether they can convert this into points.
Like everything in rugby, protect the pill, get down the other end and score more points than the opposition. Simple maths rather than statistics.
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Good question and the missed tackle can give this. When I loaded the programme code I forgot to tell it to grab line breaks by stupid error of myself. It not something I can fix but can reset at the start of a competition, so sorry. I do collect line breaks but short of going back and re-doing every game I can't supply it in the same format. Also line break definitions vary heaps. The one the pro coaches I asked about this use "when the attacker turns the defender's shoulder" which isn't what I would have said was a line break, but that why I'm not a coach. But thanks for the comments and the assesments of other comments here ;)
bennalong
Guest
so what about line break stats.
bennalong
Guest
You're a clown Mick
Suzy Poison
Guest
Well I am a Saffa and I am sweating on the results. It will be a good game to watch. Firstly the Waratahs have a few blokes back from injury and were impressive last weekend. I went to the game and Beale was incredible. Secondly the Brumbies are showing some healthy fighting spirit, and that is great for Jake White next year. Even Gits who I have bagged in the past, is getting stuck in, he really is giving it 200%. It will be close. It's great to see to slow revival of the Brumbies. Perhaps what Riaan in his roundabout "arrogant Saffa way" is trying to say, is that Aussie fans in general have more to sweat about. Because if the Brumbies win, there will only be one Aussie team, in the playoffs. The Saffas already have two locked in. the Stormers (My team) and either the Bulls or the Sharks (depending on thier result) So but that definition, the Aussies have more at stake. So thanks for the article Rucking Good!!
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
Maybe so, but the point is that NSWRU and the 'Tahs fail their Rugby brief in that they should be a contender, they should be the team to beat, they should be a benchmark. If they recruit mediocre players then who is to blame, not the players surely.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Fitzpatrick, Baxter, Mumm, Mowen, Burgess, Halangahu, Carter, Turner... These are mediocre/solid Super players. I think the Waratahs are overachievers frankly. The Crusaders, Stormers, Bulls, Reds, Blues and Sharks have better squads. 7th is about right IMO.
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
I got a number of emails during the weekend from South Africans wanted to know all the Brumbies and Waratahs stats I had. This is so they could work out what might happen, First time they have asked me for an Australian derby stats. I also supply some for the SA forums and there is some dicussion on it, so I put the by-line in.
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Correct
Eric
Guest
Riaan, why wouldn't the Bulls or Sharks be interested in the result. If Tahs win, one of them are gone. Pretty significant I would think.
Riaan
Guest
I can tell you now that non of the South Africans are "sweating" anything. If The Warathas win, then fine they deserve it, and if they lose, also fine. Teams in the top 6 should deserve their place and not get helped in. I certaintly wont be up in the morning watching some boring aussie school boy Rugby derby. I'l wait for the real men to play.
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
Mals, Point taken, however if those other clubs had access to Beale, Drew, Robbo, TPN, Sekope, Wycliff, Lachie et al they may do something more with them. The 'Tahs are perennial underachievers despite being a foundation club and having the biggest pool from which to identify and nurture talent. The Brumbies are having a hiccup and will be back, the Force have had teething problems and the Rebels have their Army. Sydneysiders on the other hand have voted with their wallets and abandoned a lacklustre leaderless team showing no vision, panache or intent. In other words they do not excite. If you can't blame the leadership group for that mess then who should bear responsibility? Something stinks and the answer is a blend of Emerald city, small club politics, NSWRU and old values which have no place in the professional era.
Mals
Guest
sixo_clock - at least the Waratahs are still in contention to play finals football! Go take a poll with the Brumbies players & ask them whether they would prefer to be 10th or fighting for 6th place.
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Correct, except in the last couple of weeks where they have won they have the same stats profile. Clearly they must be not making the same errors at the same times.
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
Sometime yes, but I also do probability of success of each kick and it factors in the difficulty. But then againt he can miss some easy ones. His conversions is around 63%
RuckinGoodStats
Roar Rookie
I've coded every game and every kick from the hand from the start of the season, for every team. I can break it down by game so I know it's 38%. Don't know where you got 20% from, but would be in interested.
tigergerry
Guest
Wonder what the crowd will be, any ideas? I think they will struggle for 20 000
Mick the clown
Guest
Your stats are HIlarious!!!! "whereas the Waratahs look to find touch from 38 per cent of their kicks" Where did this stat come from? The Waratahs find touch no where near 38% of the time. - They may be about 20% (at best). - The remainder of kicks or just aimless kicks downfield straight to the opposition back 3. Even their kick offs are aimless. - too deep and not high enough to have a chance of contesting the ball. - Just a structured kick down field. Brumbies to win on the back of Beales incompetance and inconsistancy. - Everyone was praising him after last weeks game, and yes, he made the ordinary look difficult and pulled it off. - But Although he did some amazing things, he also made some elemantary under 8's mistakes such as 1) Dropping high balls cold. 2) aimless kicks straight to the back 3. 3) not chasing after his own kicks (lazy) 4) numerous times caughtr out of position defensively. (lazy or no vision?) 5) Taking the low percentage plays. - A clear example was. - running in the clear, 1 man in support. - does he take the high % option and pass it? - No he takes the low percentage play and kicks it. - It comes off. -- He is a hero! BUt overall dumb dumb aimless rugby. While i want the Tahs too win, the aimlessness to their game (and in particular their decision makers. - 9/10/15 will invite teh brumbies to win it
soapit
Guest
so to translate all those stats, the brumbies keep the ball in hand more but arent particularly good at breaking defences. they should then struggle against the waratahs who have defence as one of their few true weapons (the others being beale and TPN)
flying hori
Guest
Brumbies to win, Giteau and Moore on fire
bennalong
Guest
Both the Waratahs and the Brumbies have been battling all sorts of demons this year.sible I suspect coaches have been responsible for some of this on both sides. The Brumbies have relied on holding on to the ball to milk penalties. Their attacking game is one dimensional. The Tah's kicks are often chips and kicks 'in behind' though Hickey favours kicking for territory I note you avoid the line breaks stats. I have no doubt the comparison would show why the Tahs are playing for a semi finals place and the Brumbies have languished at the bottom of the competition. As a Tahs supporter I hope the Brumbies are a speed bump, but I suspect this will be a conservative, thumping match which will result in more injuries. I hope the Tahs will bring their expansive game and jump to an early lead. This would encourage the Brumbies to run it also and open up the game to advantage the Tahs. It would also demonstrate a willingness to adopt change in the last game of their comp rather than play to a win at all costs to the advantage [should they succeed] of the Bulls and Sharks