The AFL takes all of its key performance indicators seriously, especially the one dictating that the game remains affordable to families.
Over the decades, by and large, the AFL has succeeded in this respect, judging by the excellent attendances it has been able to maintain over a lengthy period.
When the Geelong club president suggested last week that he foresaw the day a club membership did not guarantee entry to a game of footy, the AFL’s head honcho, Andrew Demetriou, was very quick to respond with a contrary view.
The more interesting part of Demetriou’s response related to the pattern of memberships sales generally, and I thought it would be interesting to take a look at this because it included commentary that applies across all sports, helping us to understand in part why new clubs and leagues have such a hard time of it, almost universally.
Demetriou commented on strong membership growth across most clubs, but highlighted drops in clubs such as the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Adelaide and Port Adelaide.
Despite memberships having jumped from 605,791 to 633,825 from 2010 to 2011 for the relevant period to date, there remain 97,000 members from 2010 who have not re-signed.
In other words, to receive the modest growth of 28,000 members overall, 125,000 new members had to be found to more than offset the losses.
This phenomenon is referred to as the churn rate. The AFL’s churn rate for 2010 to 2011 was about 16 per cent.
The important point to make is that that churn rate is relatively constant. Every year, from the very earliest days of the competition, clubs have had to replace 16 per cent or so of their membership just to stand still.
The fact is that many members come and go over the years, then return, depart again, and the cycle goes on and on, all for very good reasons – everyone’s individual circumstances will change many times over their lives.
For a competition as old as that of the AFL’s, with broad based support spread across much of the nation, the AFL has been in a position to keep the trend line pointing upwards, despite dips along the way to various clubs.
When a new league starts up, doesn’t matter what the sport is, they are going to experience that very same churn rate, give or take a few percentage points. The trouble is that when you’re new on the scene, where are you going to find the fans to replace those 16 per cent who will go this year, and next year, and the year after, and on it goes ad infinitum.
Looking at the anatomy of membership numbers from that perspective, one soon starts to understand just how big the challenge is just remaining stable, let alone growing.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Round 17 AFL crowds (and YTD, courtesy of The Wookie on BF): Adelaide v Essendon (Football Park) 38,118 Carlton v Collingwood (MCG) 85,936 Richmond v Gold Coast (Cazaly's Stadium) 10,382 St Kilda v West Coast (Docklands) 31,416 Melbourne v Port Adelaide (Marrara) 7,255 Fremantle v Sydney (SCG) 23,415 Brisbane v Geelong (Gabba) 19,906 North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs (Docklands) 22,754 Round 1-17 2011 Aggregate: 4,721,716 (DOWN 332,547 on 2010) 2011 Round Aggregate Avrg: 277,748 (DOWN 19,562) 2011 Season per Game Ave: 35,771 (DOWN 1,393) Projected 2011 Season Tot: 6,665,952 (UP 170,272) Note: Projected 2011 season total includes 11 additional games over the previous season, we're basically talking about Gold Coast's home games, that will average somewhere between 17k and 20k by season's end. So aggregates for the season will be up on 2010, but averages will come down from last year's 37k. If averages for season can end around 35,750 per game, that would be a very good result for the AFL. Aggregates will go up again next season with one additional game per round, but the average will drop again, to at least 34k (with GWS expected to average less than what the Suns averaged this season).
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The AFL has put up its official list of membership sales as at 30 June for the 2011 season: http://www.afl.com.au/tabid/208/default.aspx?newsid=118901 A copy of the list: Club - Access Members Collingwood - 71,271 Hawthorn - 56,224 Adelaide - 44,719 Carlton - 43,791 West Coast - 43,216 Fremantle - 42,762 Essendon - 42,559 Richmond - 40,184 Geelong - 39,343 St Kilda - 39,276 Melbourne - 36,937 Port Adelaide - 32,581 Western Bulldogs - 29,710 North Melbourne - 28,761 Sydney Swans - 27,106 Brisbane Lions - 20,792 Gold Coast Suns - 11,141 Total memberships have risen from around 615k last season to a tick over 650k this season. Collingwood has broken the record as having sold the most memberships ever in a single season: in excess of 71k. Eight clubs now boast memberships figures of over 40k, while a further two are a fraction under. At the bottom end, the three clubs in non-AFL areas have the lowest memberships, and what's more in the case of Sydney and Brisbane, are probably at their lowest levels for a few years. The low number for the Gold Coast, while around expectations for the first season in the comp, shows the diffuculty in establishing new clubs in non-traditional areas. I would expect GWS to be below that number in its first year (although that is complicated by the sales of part-memberships in the Canberra region). It should be noted that the Hawthorn number, the second highest, includes something like 7,000 Tasmanian members for the four games played in Launceston.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Hi Republic thanks for the post. My starting point, and I do say this with no great insight or special knowledge, is that the churn rate is symptomatic of the sorts of lives we all lead. If I look over my life, from the moment I bought my first junior membership in my early teens, over 30 years ago, there have been stacks of moments when I haven't been in a position to follow my footy team closely, as a consequesnce, there have been times when I've let it lapse for one or two years, then come back in again. There have been seasons when I have watched 20 games, and there have been seasons where I have been lucky to make it for one game. Years when you're playing senior footy seriously yourself, starting new careers, moving town, getting married, having kids, changing jobs, going overseas - these are things that happen to all of us, and any one of them can mean you drop your membership for a season or more. At the end of the day, it's discretionary spending, there's stacks of sport on TV, many might make the economic decision to spend on Fox Sport rather than a membership, and lastly, if we were to analyse our decisions to pump so much money into our footy club over a lifetime, and get all rational about it, we might conclude: why the hell am I doing this??!! So I see the existence of a churn rate, in all sports, as quite normal, we can quibble about the size of it, but it's there, and it does show that if you don't have a latent, existing support (like the big AFL clubs do), it's very, very tough offsetting those annual losses, and logically, it's very tough to grow year on year.
Republican
Guest
Cat Thanks - thought provoking and very relevant to my ongoing focus in respect of elite sport. Do you reckon this is a chicken and egg eternal question, i.e. to say is the 'chum' rate symptomatic of the commercial market forces that drive sport at that top end today? Or conversely, has the market - us, determined this very fickle climate that certainly lacks the substance and tribal loyalty of old, when blood was thicker than H2O?
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Yes, definitely different variables at play at both the Eagles and Crows, with parallels with the long waiting lists for MCC memberships. The vast majority of football clubs in this country (across all the codes) find themselves in a very different situation to that.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Thanks Sheek. TC
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Wotdoo The focus of the article isn't really on the quantum of AFL memberships, but to demonstrate just how difficult it is to just break even each year, year on year, let alone record modest increases. It's tough, very tough. TC
sheek
Guest
Cattery, Interesting article - thanks for contributing.....
Sherrin-Burley-Faulkner
Guest
In Collingwoods case around 5,000 out of 70,000+, about 5,000 interstate and O/S as well, they also have quite a few thousand 18 game membership as well. Hawthorn may have many more because of Tassie memberships.
Wotdoo
Guest
Those figures are all well and good but with the 3 game members how many of these would be full game members. I know of lots of people that now buy limited memberships instead of the full game membership packs
Nathan
Guest
West Coast churn rate is something like 2%. Sigh, come on new Perth Oval.
PaddyBoy
Guest
I was thinking that too, what do you reckon he'd blow on a breathalyser?
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Love the picture! TC