The AFL takes all of its key performance indicators seriously, especially the one dictating that the game remains affordable to families.
Over the decades, by and large, the AFL has succeeded in this respect, judging by the excellent attendances it has been able to maintain over a lengthy period.
When the Geelong club president suggested last week that he foresaw the day a club membership did not guarantee entry to a game of footy, the AFL’s head honcho, Andrew Demetriou, was very quick to respond with a contrary view.
The more interesting part of Demetriou’s response related to the pattern of memberships sales generally, and I thought it would be interesting to take a look at this because it included commentary that applies across all sports, helping us to understand in part why new clubs and leagues have such a hard time of it, almost universally.
Demetriou commented on strong membership growth across most clubs, but highlighted drops in clubs such as the Western Bulldogs, Brisbane, Adelaide and Port Adelaide.
Despite memberships having jumped from 605,791 to 633,825 from 2010 to 2011 for the relevant period to date, there remain 97,000 members from 2010 who have not re-signed.
In other words, to receive the modest growth of 28,000 members overall, 125,000 new members had to be found to more than offset the losses.
This phenomenon is referred to as the churn rate. The AFL’s churn rate for 2010 to 2011 was about 16 per cent.
The important point to make is that that churn rate is relatively constant. Every year, from the very earliest days of the competition, clubs have had to replace 16 per cent or so of their membership just to stand still.
The fact is that many members come and go over the years, then return, depart again, and the cycle goes on and on, all for very good reasons – everyone’s individual circumstances will change many times over their lives.
For a competition as old as that of the AFL’s, with broad based support spread across much of the nation, the AFL has been in a position to keep the trend line pointing upwards, despite dips along the way to various clubs.
When a new league starts up, doesn’t matter what the sport is, they are going to experience that very same churn rate, give or take a few percentage points. The trouble is that when you’re new on the scene, where are you going to find the fans to replace those 16 per cent who will go this year, and next year, and the year after, and on it goes ad infinitum.
Looking at the anatomy of membership numbers from that perspective, one soon starts to understand just how big the challenge is just remaining stable, let alone growing.
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