A common theme in the debate over the Sonny Bill Williams v Nonu battle for the All Black No.12 jersey is that Nonu is the best power runner in the New Zealand midfield, and Williams is more of a one-trick pony who creates too many turnovers with his offloads.
I’ve managed to get comparable stats on the two which will show that they are very close in most facets of play. However there are some notable differences.
During the Super Rugby season they have both played only 10 full games each. The rest of the games they were either injured, sent off or suspended.
I disregarded stats from these games. Ten games is not a lot to get a proper picture, but its the best I could do to try and get a fair comparison.
The last game for Williams in respect to stats was the recent Crusaders v Sharks. Nonu’s was the Hurricanes v Crusaders.
Here are the findings.
Defence
Williams has made 96 tackles versus Nonu’s 84.
Williams has 19 tackle assists versus Nonu’s 24, and missed tackles are 12 each.
Breaking it down to a per game basis you could say that the stats are almost the same.
The big difference though is that Williams has forced seven turnovers from his defence, Nonu only two.
Attack
Williams has 104 carries with 42 tackle breaks compared to Nonu’s 71 carries for 29 tackle breaks (I can explain this stat in the questions section). The percentage is roughly the same for both at 41 percent.
Line breaks are 13 for Williams and nine for Nonu, with Williams providing nine linebreak assists to Nonu’s six.
Their percentage rate for hitting the gain line is about 65 percent each.
Metres gained are 1012 for Williams and 794 for Nonu. That averages out to 10.12 metres per carry for Williams and 7.94 metres for Nonu. Again, very similar stats.
The big difference is in the offloads with Williams scoring 48 compared to Nonu’s nine.
Breakdown
Neither player has won turnover ball in the ruck.
Being in the first three players to clean out in the rucks on attack, Williams has hit 59 rucks compared to Nonu’s 72. That translates to about six and seven rucks a game respectively.
There is some difference in the defensive rucks, Williams has hit 47 of them compared to Nonu’s 22.
Errors
Both have conceded five penalties, made 14 forced and unforced errors, and 20 handling errors. Identical.
Kicking
A very small feature of their games, but Williams has kicked six times for 174 metres with an average distance of 29 metres.
Nonu has kicked 12 times for 422m at an average of 35.1 metres a kick.
Conclusion
Although the stats are very similar, the trend shows that Williams has a higher workrate than Nonu.
That doesn’t necessarily equate to a better player.
The biggest difference which is no surprise is the offoads. Its a clear point of difference between the two.
The turnovers caused by Williams’ defence however is a surprise.
Another surprise is how they both have the same amount of errors, considering that Williams is said to employ a riskier game with his offloads.
I suppose one of the things that Graham Henry has to decide is which combination is more important to the All Blacks. The 10 and 12 or the 12, 13 combo.
The All Blacks I’m sure will also have a lot more data at hand.
An example of how deep the the stats can possibly go is that in the NRL they have the probability of the options a player takes in most situations and the success rate of those options.
Something like “Marshall steps to the right 90 percent of the time he takes the line on in the opposition’s half.”
There are so many variables that the Al Black coaches will have to take into account, and I suppose the stats are just one part of the puzzle.
Nonu’s experience and accomplishments in Test rugby may give him the edge. Nonu steps up when he puts on the black jersey.
The thing that Williams has going for him is that his game is rapidly improving. He has only been playing rugby in NZ for about a year compared to Nonu’s nine.
I reckon the All Black coaches will have to make a judgement call on who they think has more improvement in them.
Basic logic would assume that Williams has more improvement in him but just because Williams has picked up the game so quickly doesn’t mean that he will continue on that improvement curve.
His improvement may plateau around the Rugby World Cup 2011, maybe not. Or maybe he’ll take an even bigger step up in the Test arena. Who knows?
Stating that Williams is too risky is a little off the mark.
The three wise men have to see how Williams handles the Test arena, and the Tri Nations is the perfect platform to test out the theories.
Nonu’s already proven. If it doesn’t work out then at least they know.
My call is that Williams will at the very least get a start against the Boks and Wallabies early in the Tri Nations, with the All Blacks settling on the midfield combo in the later Tri Nations games.
One thing that is settled, though, is that the debate will rage on regardless of who gets the prize.
Bruce Bayliss
Guest
I believe there is a place for both SBW and Ma'a Nonu in the AB's back line which should read, outwards.. D Carter, M Nonu, C Smith with SBW one one wing, R Kahui on the other and Israel Dagg at fullback and perhaps P Weepu at halfback.
winston
Guest
Please not again. We need a13 at 13
Damien
Roar Guru
Thats true zhenry. Stats can be twisted in all sorts of ways. I've just tried to present them as fair as i could. These are just the stats that were available for free and its impossible to 'handicap' the stats for Nonu. The numbers are the numbers I suppose. B-Rock got his from the same place. Obviously all factors would be taken in during selection. SBW is not the only one who has benefited from the Crusader team. Fruen, Guilford, Dagg, Ellis, Crockett, Maitland, Todd have all had good 'numbers' because of the Crusaders. Out of the 10 matches that were taken for Nonu has only played against a playoff teams twice. The Blues & Saders which were the first and last games. I didn't include the Sharks game because of his injury even though he played all the game (i think so). SBW stats were taken against 5 playoff teams : NSW, Sharks (twice), Reds & Stormers. Also Nonu played against the Lions & Rebels which SBW didn't get a chance to. About a month ago after SBW had participated in 9 games (sub & injury games included) I did an analysis of his games against Nonu's first 9 games of the 2010 Super Rugby season (Nonu was having a bad run at the time so I thought the previous season in which he played well in and there were no teams dramas would be good) The numbers were more in favour of SBW. I scrapped it because after a while I thought the reasoning was alittle silly. 2010 Nonu v 2011 SBW just didn't seem right. At the end of the day these are just numbers. Even though they are important they must be taken into the context of Super Rugby. I'm sure the selectors will take that into conderation as well..
zhenry
Guest
As pointed out, the Hurricanes were totally disfunctional and Nonu's play was seriously effected, on the other hand the Crusaders are at the opposite end of pole, so not really a fair scenario to pick stats from.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
OJ I give an answer up the page on this subject suggesting they both play.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
Spiro and Greg I quote an earlier answer I gave to a point by Greg elsewhere on how SBW runs wider and wider and spreads the opposition defence: 'your description of the change in SBW’s tactics reminds me of the way Ma Nonu often begins by bashing into the opposition in the middle of the field and then drifting out wider, and being more ambiguous about whether to bash himself or pass. With the extra runners and space out there it is easier find some way through, but presumably it depends on literally hammering into the opposition early in the match so they are forced to commit numbers to the centre, who can later be drawn out. This is also one imagines why an inside centre and not an outside centre has to be the one to play like this. It essentially makes this player the lynchpin of the whole attack, rather than the flyhalf, as he is the one choosing whether to go through the middle or move things wide. It also implies the question who is best to play outside SBW. Is it obviously Conrad Smith? Perhaps in the same way that Nonu creates so much danger at 12 that the slippery Smith can capitalise on it, he could do the same outside SBW. But then you have to wonder if so many defenders are concentrated on SBW, when running close or more importantly wide, whether another power runner would face a baffled and disordered rabble and make rubble out of it. A player like Fruean for the Crusaders, and perhaps Nonu for the All Blacks? Not only this, but Nonu can also repeat and mirror the SBW effect once more in a sequence of spreading waves, threatening to plough through or pass on. Would it be possible to stop a doubled version of this technique, with the two best linebreakers in the world, both with superb passing skills, working in tandem?'
Hugo Verne
Guest
Ohtani - Henry doesn't have a cutesy bone in his body. He's got to be the most careful coach in world rugby and most unlikely to repeat a mistake (like resting players). For him the TN matches are mere prologue although he's understandably bitter about having such tough, hard games immediately before the Big Show and without a whole lot of rest for his Saders stars. I think he'll take the pragmatic view. Smith is faster than Fruen and far more experienced with 44 caps and would be an even better foil running off SBW as he'd know what to do when in the clear whereas Robbie is still learning that part of the game. The way SBW tackled the Stormers cemented his spot in Henry's run-on side. Better at it than Ma'a. And you surely noted the way SBW had two guys hanging on him and still got that offload away. What an asset you guys have.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Nonu started the season poorly and then had his injury, but he came into some form in the Hurricanes' final games. SBW started the season well and then went into a sharp lull with a few injuries and outside distractions, but he's been good in the finals so far. The problem as I see it is that one or the other has to play the majority of games at 12. I don't think you can alternate them, but I fear Henry will get cutesy and play Williams against the Boks and Nonu against the Wallabies or something like that.
Damien
Roar Guru
Another thing that the AB selectors will consider will be how many 'big plays' out of nothing either player came up with. I haven't seen all of the Crusader or Canes games in my opinion SBW has way more big plays than Nonu. And they kinda came out of no where. These are just from memory. - 1st Sharks game : Offload for Carters try. - Force : The run & offload from his own line that started an attack raid but funnily ended up with the Force capitilising on a knock on and scoring a try themselves. - 1st Stormers game : Offload to Maitland that led to the Crockett try, The Aplon strip and offload while the Stormers were about to start a final assualt in the dying stages of the game. That led to the Crusaders setting up a few phases for a drop goal but Berquist missed the shot. Crusaders still won but that strip was in the 78th minute against the run of play and enabled the Crusaders to hold the ball long enough to hold out the Stormers. - 2nd Stormers game : Offload for Fruen's try. All I can remember from Nonu is the break that set up Gears try against the Cheifs. As I said these are big plays out of nothing just from memory.
Damien
Roar Guru
Your point about SBW having better backup in defense is true. However one on one SBW is a brute when he tackles. Some of the turnovers could have just been from the impact. No disrespect to Nonu but I reckon loosies and midfielders would rather run into Nonu than SBW.
Dave
Guest
No wonder the defense hung off him
Dave
Guest
Could be a world cup year syndrome, Donald and McAlister probably don't hold out too much hope of being around for the 2015 world cup so might as well head off to the big money. Brett is facing the reality that he is moving backwards in the all black 1st5 queue. Berquist has arguably never been in All Black frame and apparently had lined up a deal to go overseas last year but it fell through at the last minute. Still a fair out flow though.
Dave
Guest
They played Luke McAlister at 13 against Australia once as well, bit of a disaster.
Brett McKay
Guest
quite right Greg, and if SBW is joined at the Chiefs by Aaron Cruden, suddenly that's a backline worth noticing. The question I have about NZ player movement though regards the first fives - did Carter's 4yr contract scare them all away?? By my rough count, Donald, McAlister, Brett, Delany, and Berquist have or will sign with overseas clubs. Not that I don't think another young punk will pop up in their place, but it's seems weird that so many 10s would head OS at the same time..
Damien
Roar Guru
Hopefully SBW can avoid injury as well..
Damien
Roar Guru
You raise valid points Dave. I suppose the breakdown stats aren't so different, The numbers make it 10.6 breadown hits per game for SBW compared to 9.4 for Nonu. Thats pretty close. Deeper stats would have shown what effect did those hits have. Quick, slow or lost ball on attack. And how did the defensive breakdown hits affect the opposition. Did they get quick, slow ball or did they just lose the ball or the scrum feed. A good reason that Nonu may not hit the defensive breakdowns (he has more attack breakdown hits than SBW) as much is because he knows its a lost cause for that perticular breakdown and he is experienced to know to save his gas. As for SBW maybe he's just too keen and hits any breakdown if he thinks there's a small hope of a turnover where Nonu would have not made the same decision. Also maybe SBW's just a fitter player. We all hear about how much of a freakish athlete he is.
Greg Russell
Roar Guru
A few weeks ago there were rumors - ironically, coming out of rugby league ranks - that SBW and Nonu would be the midfield combination at the Blues next year, thus granting Spiro his wish of the two playing together. While Nonu is now confirmed for the Blues and it is accepted that earthquakes are going to drive SBW from Christchurch, the strong word right now is that SBW will follow Wayne Smith to the Chiefs next year. That would pair him up with Richard Kahui, which would also be a terrifically potent combo (if Kahui can avoid injury).
Damien
Roar Guru
I'm sure a dud offload is considered an SBW mistake and is included in his error count. His worst game for mistakes was against the Chiefs and it is reflected in his stats for that game. In that game he had 10 carries for 5 unforced errors and 1 handling error. In saying that though you may have noticed that he doesn't offload as much as he did in the start of the season. He is much more selective. The Crusaders are all aware of the SBW offload. They speak about always being alert for the offload. So at this level if you drop a half decent offload then its the other players fault. Its not like he can say "I didn't expect that'.
Steve
Guest
I think he might be used at Centre the same way the Crusaders do but I feel he might get caught out in defense if played there all game, NZer's a acutely aware of playing non specialist at centre and getting found out, Christian Cullen and Mils being 2 examples. Plus a good as both these players are they don't really compliments each other, Conrad Smith is a great combo to have with either, Even Fruen who is a giant is much more subtle in his play the either man.
Gary Russell-Sharam
Guest
Mudskipper I would love to see Conrad Smith outside SBW to see if he can be assisted by the off loads. Smith does really well with Nonu, it would be interesting to see how he does outside SBW, I imagine it would be awesome. I agree they will experiment with Nonu and SBW in the Tri's etc, but if Nonu shows some form with Smith they will stick to the tried and true. The three Amigoes are loath to change and I don't blame them. It's like the mortien ad.