Potential shocks in RWC group stage

By CizzyRascal / Roar Guru

In 2007, there probably was no greater shock than Fiji beating Wales in one of the all-time classic World Cup games. A close second was Argentina beating France in the opening game, which though it had precedent, was still a massive surprise.

Georgia almost pulled off the greatest upset win in all of World Cup history against Ireland in Bordeaux.

So in the 2011 edition of the IRB World Cup, what potential shocks are there on the cards? Here are some:

FRANCE vs TONGA

A bit out there I’ll admit, and I don’t see it happening, but given that this game is last in the group for both sides and takes place just after the France-All Blacks game, there is the potential of a very rough ride for France.

I think we all know not to disregard France but with Liévremont at the helm, this team is there for the taking and this Tongan side will be boosted at the World Cup with a few big names who will be either returning or having decided to declare for this tiny kingdom.

ENGLAND vs SCOTLAND/ARGENTINA

The Scots do know the taste of defeating England and so do the Pumas to a lesser extent but both would be underdogs against England who have a very good record in the World Cup. A victory for either side would throw this group on its head.

Scotland showed in the Six Nations match this year at Twickenham that they have the right style of game to challenge England and without the home advantage, maybe Scotland can go that one step further.

SCOTLAND vs GEORGIA

While Scotland do have the means to beat England, I also think they have very serious limitations that the ever improving Lelos can take advantage of. The Georgian pack will really front up to this Scottish pack while the Scottish pack really lack cutting edge in the backs which is where the Georgian weakness is.

If Georgia can keep this game played in the tight, they might pull off what they threatened four years ago.

AUSTRALIA vs IRELAND

While this would be a shock, people should not be surprised considering how close the two teams have been in their last two World Cup encounters especially when Australia had far superior teams.

This is probably shaping up to be the encounter of the pool stages of the World Cup. I won’t talk about this one too much as I have an article up the sleeve about this match.

IRELAND vs ITALY

Ireland have not lost to Italy since they gained entrance to the Six Nations. Yet there have been some incredibly close encounters and with World Cup nerves and the likelihood that cup rugby will take precedence, it will suit the tight game of this Italian side. While Ireland will target the Wallabies game, this will the game Italy shall focus on most intently.

WALES vs FIJI/SAMOA

As already mentioned, Fiji beat Wales in the last World Cup, while Samoa have beaten them in their previous two meeting in the tournament. So does this mean it will even be a shock? Well Wales will still go in as favourites but I do see one of these sides beating them. Samoa will be handicapped by playing Namibia four days prior, but I believe they have the better chance.

Other less likely possibilities:

– Italy beating Australia.
– Wales beating South Africa.
– France beating New Zealand.
– USA beating Italy.
– Namibia beating Samoa/Fiji.

The Crowd Says:

2011-07-12T10:55:41+00:00

Derm

Roar Guru


Trolling again?

2011-07-12T10:53:24+00:00

Derm

Roar Guru


It may be funny, but it's not accurate. Ireland is not used to relying on England to sort them out with tax pounds and subsidies. Northern Ireland as part of the UK may be used to being reliant on the UK government for subsidies but the Irish government is not. It would be more accurate to say Ireland has relied on EU Structural Fund subsidies in previous decades to strengthen its economy and infrastructure, but even that has largely stopped now with the expansion of the EU to the east. But hey ho, VC likes to write these provocative statements to get a rise. ;)

2011-07-12T10:18:01+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


This B-team full of teenagers? Mtawarira, Du Plessis, Du Plessis, Botha, Matfield, Stegmann, Smith, Spies, Pienaar, Steyn, Habana, De Villiers, Frans Steyn, Basson, Aplon. {yawn}

2011-07-12T07:58:25+00:00

Hopperdoggy

Guest


I have to say that those of us who don't have a beautiful 2nd national language to sing our anthem in hate it. Aus, US, Canada. All jealous! Actually please include SA. Bloody horrible sound 1 man talking in Africaans, let alone 40,000 singing in it! I have visions of the Zulus begging Mr Caine in his pith helmet to make his SA mates stop singing in Africaans and they'll throw their spears away!

2011-07-12T07:46:55+00:00

Hopperdoggy

Guest


I would take that rather more the instability of 6N sides than the ability ofthe Wallabies. Good luck to the NH teams if that is the 'tude!

2011-07-12T07:42:08+00:00

Hopperdoggy

Guest


Oh dear! But definitely funny and uncomfortably true

2011-07-11T19:54:23+00:00

Loftus

Guest


The last time South Africa played the Welsh the Boks beat them in Cardiff with a B team full of teenagers thrown together the previous week. But keep on hoping,hey

2011-07-11T10:37:37+00:00

sk

Guest


i've been thinking alot about the whole france vs tonga thing and i reackon they're just as likely to lose against japan or cananda just cause any team with livermont as coach will be shakey. imo all three are theirs to lose

2011-07-11T05:36:37+00:00

jeznez

Guest


Slipper plays tighthead these days so it will be Robinson facing Castro. The other thing is that Castro got away with boring in until midway through the second half when the ref started noticing. After that the scrum battle evened out. I've never actually see Castro look that menacing when asked to stay square by the ref. Watched him against Corbesiero this year and he didn't do much. As long as the referee adjudicates correctly I do not expect Robinson to have a problem with him.

2011-07-10T20:11:07+00:00

Dave

Guest


Australia's backline should be enough to beat Italy on scraps, even if they do get crushed up front.

2011-07-10T20:08:16+00:00

Dave

Guest


I agree, France are up there and could always do it on the day. Tough luck for who ever would end up playing the ABs in the QF if the finish second in their pool

2011-07-10T09:40:35+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


True, but it was a lot closer to a 1st XV than the Fijian side.

2011-07-10T07:04:57+00:00

kovana

Guest


Yes,,, Its painful to lose to lower ranked sides.. Now i know whats its like when NZ loses to france...

2011-07-10T06:11:49+00:00

Gez

Guest


That was hardly Samoa first XV. Unfortunately there will be more experimenting against the Tongans. The word is the Australia game is where we will see our WC team.

2011-07-10T01:04:25+00:00

Derm

Roar Guru


Absolutely. They should definitely not expect too much. Put out second string teams against them is what I say - don't give them another moment's thought - they'll just crumble. :).

2011-07-09T20:22:45+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


Wales only played an experimental SA side once, and that was because it was basically a one-off Test. The last time the two sides met proper in Wales the Welsh were 17-9 ahead at half-time and a rout looked on the cards, and after their performances on the Lions tour I genuinely believe that South Africa are the one 3N side that Wales won't fear playing. The only area where SA can claim superiority is come lineout time. Fiji's midfield isn't especially fast, tbh.

2011-07-09T20:16:35+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


I don't think they'll find that too much of a struggle if Samoa play like they did against Fiji 'B' last night.

2011-07-09T19:41:39+00:00

Frikkie Gauws

Guest


BEN S - Wales will have to leave their beautiful stadium and 80,000 voices singing Hen Wlad Fy Nhadau (one of the great sounds in rugby) when they come south. They have a tough row to hoe. They get the Boks (the real team not the TN B side) first up in Wellington and will be well beaten as PdV will want to lay down an early marker. Then they have to beat Samoa seven days later to stay in the comp. Byrne is first class, not sold on Halfpenny - just 83 kgs - against SH opposition. Shane's only a little guy but he has great pace and jinks off both feet. Never found out why but nobody have been able to teach Fijian teams how to scrum. Wales will give them a lesson there but big man Roberts will lack the speed to keep up with Fiji's midfield.

2011-07-09T18:52:00+00:00

Derm

Roar Guru


"but my own suspicion is that the Celts are so used to relying on Mummy England to sort them out with tax pounds and subsidies that they rather lose the plot when asked to go into battle without the English to back them up." Where do you dig these gems up?

2011-07-09T09:40:05+00:00

Ben S

Roar Guru


Frikkie, the Welsh team has limitations with the backs, which is IMO the Welsh strength: Gatland persevered too long with Stephen Jones at 10, and now he's not sure who his best 10 is, Lee Byrne has been startlingly out of form since the Lions tour, Jamie Roberts is a one-trick pony whose best trick is not utilised by Wales, and Mike Phillips is technically a very poor 9. However, alternatively, if the Welsh backs are firing then they have a backline that combines size, pace, power and skill. If Phillips gets front foot ball then he's a threat going forward, as is Hook, who also has an excellent kicking game. The thing is Wales just don't play to their strengths, so we never see Roberts being used to go bang down the middle like the Lions did. I agree that Shanklin is a big loss, and I think Jon Davies is a club player, but if we ignore the 13 slot and look at the back three selection: Shane Williams, North, Byrne and Halfpenny, then we see there is a good blend. Wales are, as VC points out, mentally fragile, and despite the amount of experience they have in the side they are also frighteningly unable to change tactics during a match when they are not working. Let's also not forget that NZ and Australis have both smashed Wales in recent seasons, whereas the Springboks have been rather fortunate to have escaped from a few losses. Sorry, no time to address the pack - the S15 final has just started.

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