Seven clubs in race for AFL finals cut

Adam McPhee of the Dockers celebrates their win after the AFL Round 05 ANZAC Day match between the Fremantle Dockers and the Western Bulldogs at Patersons Stadium, Perth. Slattery Images

Let’s face it, Collingwood are going to win the 2011 AFL premiership. Fans of Geelong, Carlton, Hawthorn and perhaps West Coast may wish to argue otherwise. But it’s all just wishful thinking.

For all their promise, none of these four teams have the consistency or numbers to challenge the reigning premiers.

It pains me to say it, but not even the latest Shaw/Maxwell drama, or the Malthouse distractions, can dismantle what looks to be an almost perfect unit. From the last line of defence to the guy in the green vest, Collingwood look impenetrable.

They will, whether we like it or not, be the kings of October. Yuck…

This inevitability may not please everyone, but supporters the nation over needn’t be concerned. Who says that the race to the top has to be the feature article of the 2011 season? Of far greater interest is the race to make the eight.

A rat race it may seem, but a race nonetheless.

The pointy end of the home-and-away season is shaping up to be a cracker, with seven sides vying for those final three positions. Clustered in the centre, and separated by no more than two games, are Fremantle, Essendon, Sydney, Melbourne, St Kilda, Kangaroos and Western Bulldogs.

You could argue that all seven have made credible claims to contest this September’s final series. Or perhaps you could contend that they’re each undeserving recipients; their unpredictability does not deem them worthy of a final eight spot, and they’d be just be making up numbers anyway.

Regardless of whether the prosperous trio can become movers and shakers during September, it will be fascinating to see which teams make the final – or should I say finals – cut.

Can Essendon rediscover their phenomenal early season form? In the first few weeks of the season, the Dons looked like genuine top four contenders. But was that just part of the Hird honeymoon?

Will Fremantle learn how to play down in Melbourne? With a run-home from hell, the Dockers may need to pinch at least one or two – if not three – victories at bogey ground Etihad Stadium.

Are Sydney more than middle-of-the-road also-rans? The Swans threaten every year without inflicting pain. Can premiership heroes Goodes, Bolton, O’Keefe and co. find another gear?

Which side of Melbourne will close of the year? Even if the Demons pull off an unlikely victory in their horror month ahead, you wouldn’t it past them to fall to Port in Round 22.

Was St Kilda’s early season collapse indicative of where they’re at? Are the Saints still a top four side, but just a little late to the party?

Can North Melbourne even compete with the big guns? The Roos were pantsed by the Cats and Magpies, but have otherwise been solid. Their clashes with the Blues and Hawks will reveal a lot.

Was the Bulldog’s lucky month a fluke incident? The Blues and Demons games aside , the Dogs have been a huge disappointment. They have immense talent, but do they even want to make finals?

For a moment, let’s assume that these seven mediocre strugglers have only played each other (with the exception of St Kilda and Sydney, who don’t face off until Round 22). After all, standing up against your nearest rivals is perhaps the best measure of where a club sits.

When doing so, the evenness and variability of each side comes across. The normal ladder is given a significant shake-up, as the pretenders are sieved from the contenders.

St Kilda, having only lost to Essendon, sits atop the hypothetical ladder with a healthy percentage. They are closely followed by the Dockers, whose fair record is only humbled by their comparatively poor percentage.

The Western Bulldogs, meanwhile, uncover themselves as pretenders, as do the seventh placed Bombers.

Using this system, St Kilda, Fremantle and Sydney deserve to make up the final numbers, a prediction I imagine many footy experts would agreed upon. A range of possibilities could still ensue, though, with six “second-rate” grudge matches to play out in the coming weeks (see below).

It’s times like these that the AFL Ladder Predictor comes in handy. For instance, should home teams win from here on in, the computer generated system concludes us that Fremantle will take sixth, with Essendon, Sydney, Melbourne and St Kilda to be separated only by percentage.

It certainly is an amusing game within a game.

Even if we know that the Magpies are going to win anyway.

Mid-table ladder:
Pos. P W D L %
1 St Kilda (10th) 5 4 0 1 111.60%
2 Fremantle (6th) 6 4 0 2 90.66%
3 Sydney (8th) 5 3 1 1 100.73%
4 North Melbourne (11th) 6 3 0 3 109.61%
5 Melbourne (9th) 6 2 1 3 99.47%
6 Essendon (7th) 6 2 0 0 102.55%
7 Western Bulldogs (12th) 6 1 0 5 88.69%

Fremantle (Played 6, Won 4, Lost 2) 524 578 90.66%

vs North Melbourne, Win, 127-98
vs Western Bulldogs, Win 85-78
vs St Kilda, Loss 56-102
vs Essendon, Win 98-64
vs Melbourne, Loss 60-149
vs Sydney, Win 98-87

Essendon (Played 6, Won 2, Lost 4) 564 550 102.55%

vs Bulldogs, Win 113-58
vs Sydney, Loss 93-98
vs St Kilda, Win 136-84
vs Melbourne, Loss 68-101
vs Fremantle, Loss 64-98
vs North Melbourne, Loss 90-111

Sydney (Played 5, Won 3, Lost 1, Drew 1) 414 411 100.73%

vs Melbourne, Draw 84-84
vs Essendon, Win 98-93
vs Bulldogs, Win 73-65
vs North, Win 72-71
vs Fremantle, Loss 87-98
Yet to play St Kilda

Melbourne (Played 6, Won 2, Lost 3, Drew 1) 566 569 99.47%

vs Sydney, Draw 84-84
vs North, Loss, 83-124
vs Saints, Loss 86-106
vs Essendon, Win 101-68
vs Fremantle, Win 149-60
vs Bulldogs, Loss 63-127

St Kilda (Played 5, Won 4, Lost 1) 452 405 111.60%

vs Essendon, Loss, 84-136
vs Demons, Win 106-86
vs Fremantle, Win, 102-56
vs Bulldogs, Win 81-57
vs Kangas, Win 79-70
Yet to play Sydney

North Melbourne (Played 6, Won 3, Lost 3) 616 562 109.61%

vs Fremantle, Loss, 98-127
vs Dees, Win, 124-83
vs Sydney, Loss 71-72
vs Essendon, Win 111-90
vs Saints, Loss 70-79
vs Bulldogs, Win 142-111

Western Bulldogs (Played 6, Won 1, Lost 5) 494 557 88.69%

vs Essendon, Loss 58-113
vs Fremantle, Loss 78-85
vs Swans, Loss 63-73
vs Saints, Loss 57-81
vs Dees, Win 127-63
vs Kangas, Loss 111-142

Ladder shapers:

Round 20 Essendon vs Sydney, Etihad Stadium
Round 21 Western Bulldogs vs Essendon, Etihad Stadium
Round 22 North Melbourne vs Fremantle, Etihad Stadium
Round 22 Sydney vs St Kilda, ANZ Stadium
Round 23 St Kilda vs North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium