Luke Ball of the Magpies marks the ball in front of Sean Dempster of the Saints during the AFL Round 21 match between the St Kilda Saints and the Collingwood Magpies at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne. Slattery Images.
Another week, another win for the ladder-leading Mapgies. Collingwood has lost just two matches since round eleven last year, both by a mere three points. The Mapgies of 2011 have been lauded by many as the one of the greatest teams of all time.
Many believe it to be a formality that the Pies will draw level with Carlton and Essendon this year on sixteen VFL/AFL premierships each.
Can anything stop Collingwood’s relentless march towards back-to-back flags?
You bet. Despite the Magpies being deserved favourites to win this year’s premiership, there are a few concerns which loom on the horizon for the all-conquering Mapgies.
Memo Mick Malthouse: these are the four hurdles that stand between your club and the sweet taste of premiership glory this year.
Buddy’s Big Day Out
On his day, Hawthorn’s Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin is the most destructive player in the competition, and has the ability to turn any match Hawthorn’s way almost singlehandedly. Add to the mix fellow dynamic forward Cyril Rioli and it becomes clear that the Hawks have the forward line guns to upset the reigning premiers.
Should the Hawks and Mapgies meet during the finals, the Collingwood defenders will be hoping that Buddy and Cyril are not at their best.
Injuries and Suspensions
Collingwood has undoubtedly the deepest list in the AFL, but the Magpies brains trust will still be mindful of the significant number of key players on the sidelines as the finals action draws closer.
The Magpies were missing first choice players Heath Shaw (suspended), Leon Davis (injured), Nick Maxwell (injured), Chris Dawes (injured), Sharrod Wellingham (injured) and Ben Johnson (injured) from their match against Brisbane on Saturday night.
Although the Collingwood list runs deep, the unsettled Collingwood line-up could prove problematic and unsettling at the pointy end of the season.
Geelong’s Quest for Revenge
The Cats are the only team to defeat the Magpies this year, and are entrenched in second spot on the ladder behind the Magpies.
The Cats appear to be gaining pace as the season progresses and will fancy themselves against the Magpies. Having been hammered in last year’s preliminary final by the Mapgies, the Cats will be very keen to seek retribution this season.
Interestingly, the two top sides play each other in the final round of this season. Exactly how both sides approach this match remains to be seen. Will both teams go all out in pursuit of victory and bragging rights, or keep a little bit extra in the tank for finals?
Complacency
Surely hearing how good you are day-in and day-out must begin to affect the headspace of the Collingwood players? The Magpies are poised to end the home and away season with the best percentage of any VFL/AFL side of the past 100 years.
This raises the question – could the biggest risk of all to Collingwood’s 2011 premiership hopes be the players themselves? If they begin to believe their own hype, the club may become susceptible to an embarrassing finals exit.
In the past decade, the side which has finished the minor round on top of the ladder has gone on to win the premiership only four times, and two of the sides which finished top and missed out on premiership glory (St Kilda in 2009 and Geelong in 2008), had similarly sparkling seasons to the 2011 Magpies.
Malthouse need only remind his players of these statistics to ensure they take nothing for granted come the finals.
Follow Michael on Twitter @michaelfilosi
Swampy
Guest
Will the real Swampy please stand up. OH, theres two in the room but the real one is black and white.
Richard
Roar Guru
I personally don't understand how anyone could possibly hate Collingwood. I love them. Floreat Pica!
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I hate Collingwood, and I would love for either Geelong, WC, or Hawthorn to beat them. Collingwood will probably win the premiership, however they are no certainties, and Swampy, one isn't a 'homer' if they point that out. Until Collingwood actually wins the flag, I will not declare them premier. In 2008, Geelong finished the year four wins and 30% ahead of Hawthorn, yet the Hawkes won. St Kilda finished 2009 two wins and more than 28% ahead of Geelong, yet failed to win the flag. In 2010, there wasn't a massive difference between Collingwood and Geelong, however Collingwood is generally considered to have been the best team of the season. Yet they still were a ball bounce away from losing the premiership, and took 2 GFs to win the flag. Collingwood are not an 'irrepressible force', and as history shows, anything can happen. Now, again, yes, Collingwood will probably win, but I'm not going to declare them premiers yet, and neither should anyone else. "GrantS I correctly assumed you were anti-Collingwood and your arguments are clutching at straws" Did you read the same post I read? The one in which he criticized the four things in favour of Collingwood and stated 'but for mine it’s another Magpie Premiership'? How, based on that, is he anti-Collingwood (which he very may be anyway)? "f you are confident in any of the failure scenarios you outlined – remortgage your house and I’m sure you’ll get very nice odds with Joe Bookmaker." So people can only tip against a team, if they are prepared to put their house on it? Why don't you put your house on Collingwood's winning the flag?
amazonfan
Roar Guru
The premiership is never a sure thing until the final siren sounds on GF day.
Swampy
Guest
Homer - not of the Simpson variety. Someone whose bias strongly clouds their judgement. For example many Bomber fans like myself despise Carlton & Collingwood - as a result, in any discussion about those two clubs opinions are slanted to the negative by our inherent desire for either club to fail. Conversely those same fans would slant to the positive when discussing the Bombers fortunes. GrantS I correctly assumed you were anti-Collingwood and your arguments are clutching at straws. If you are confident in any of the failure scenarios you outlined - remortgage your house and I'm sure you'll get very nice odds with Joe Bookmaker. I will then apologise for doubting you through the intercom at the gate of your future Toorak mansion. Go Bombers. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
"If Collingwood does get up in the big one, I’ll be keen to see if Malthouse does take a parting shot at Eddie before retiring to the back of the coaching box." Absolute odds on bet!
I'm not so sure that Buddy wont have it in the back of his "scone" that he was well and truly beaten in round 15. Regardless Mighty Mick will have a game plan to neutralize him and Rioli. I'm still betting on a Geelong/Collingwood Grand Final.
"homers" ???? I'm an Essendon fan and count myself lucky to be in the top eight, let alone top four, so how is your "standpoint" any more neutral than mine?
peter pie
Guest
Pies were flat at stages of the lions game.what was very noticeable was dane swans influence on the game when it really counted and a score needed to be kicked.in the finals i am sure the run from the likes of shaw and obrien and the accuracy of davis will provide the springboard.Hard and strong defence is essential to win the gf.Love to see Mallthouse stay on as coach.He has developed this side to what it is and while he is winning premierships he should continue.Love the Pies.
Walt
Guest
Complacent Port Adelaide? 2001 Semi Final V Hawthorn 2002 Qualifying Final V Collingwood 2003 Qualifying Final V Sydney Ugghhh - I am sick in my mouth a little more every time I think of the extra premiership we should have won (not 2007 though)
Swampy
Guest
What a bunch of homers. I'm not a 'top 4' supporter so my opinion is from a neutral standpoint. Hawks are good but inconsistent. Does no one remember the Pies laying the smackdown on the Hawks on the same weekend the Cats were beaten by a struggling Essendon outfit? Collingwood are an irrepressible force. The last few weeks they haven't gone close to having their strongest team - which they will have in the finals and they are still winning comfortably. We can only hope for some kind of scandal involving the whole list to stop that stupid song being played after the siren in October. -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I agree, Collingwood are no certainties. They are definitely the most likely, but Geelong, Hawthorn, and West Coast are in an excellent position to win as well.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
When were Port complacent?
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Rocket, You're quite right, I'm not sure how I'll manage if your Pies go back to back this year, but I don't think I'm alone there. If Collingwood does get up in the big one, I'll be keen to see if Malthouse does take a parting shot at Eddie before retiring to the back of the coaching box. Glad to hear the Roo boys are up and firing. Great memories.
Football Fan
Guest
GrantS - you must have only watched the Cats/Pies game for a little while, cos you obviously forgot Geelong kicking 1.9 and wasting their dominant periods early in the game... Agree on the complacency though - that's a media myth. I couldn't name a team that slackens off in the finals. Except for Port ;) And I'm pretty sure that round 15 won't matter for Buddy, Taz and Reid when September comes around!
stabpass go at quarter time and you will get in for free. :)
Pretty good summary but let's have a look at each point individually. "Buddy’s Big Day Out" In round 15 against, Collingwood, Franklin was kept to 1 goal and had his worst game for the year scoring only 55 dream points. Admittedly Rioli was out injured but Buddy was safely held by Tarrant and Reid getting only 7 kicks. "Injuries and Suspensions" Heath Shaw is due back for the finals, a big plus. You have already stated that the Magpies seem to have the deepest list so all things being equal this point should not worry them. "Geelong’s Quest for Revenge" Last year Geelong won the first round encounter then Collingwood won the second round meeting and the preliminary final convincingly. This season Geelong won the first encounter by three points but anyone who saw the game knows Collingwood's poor kicking (not superior play by Geelong) was the reason for their loss. The last round will, as you point out, be very interesting. "Complacency" If you truly believe that any team, coached by Mick Malthouse, would go into a finals series with a complacent attitude then you do not have the same respect for the man that I do. Our game is such that any team can win on a given day and hence the interest in the finals but for mine it's another Magpie Premiership.
stabpass
Guest
I actually was keen to go to the game in Perth this friday night, and turned up to get 2 adults and four kids tickets this morning, but alas, there was only one ticket left for the game ..... just one ticket, crazy stuff, there will not be 44,000 people at Subi on friday, lucky to break 40,000. Anyway, the way Freo are playing, at about 1/4 time, there will be lucky to be 10,000.
Swampy
Guest
Collingwood have been taking power naps over the last few weeks. On the other hand Hawthorn blew them selves out in the second half against the Blues. The Hawks or Cats will be found wanting if it's a warm day and they find them selves up bagainst the Pies in the Final.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Collingwood looked tired on Saturday night. At times they didn't look as composed as they have throughout the season and their efficiency was well down on their norm. These final weeks are where we start seeing teams start to burn out and based solely on the past round of football, Hawthorn looks the biggest threat if you take into account Geelong's lack of intensity against Adelaide a week ago. They should be equal favorites with Geelong because West Coast can't win on the road, the Hawks have no back line beyond Josh Gibson. Don't forget, Geelong has rested a lot more player than Collingwood.