Four things that can stop Collingwood winning
Roar Guru By Michael Filosi, 22 Aug 2011
- Tagged:
- AFL, AFL 2011, Collingwood Magpies, Geelong Cats, Hawthorn Hawks
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Luke Ball of the Magpies marks the ball in front of Sean Dempster of the Saints during the AFL Round 21 match between the St Kilda Saints and the Collingwood Magpies at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne. Slattery Images.
Many believe it to be a formality that the Pies will draw level with Carlton and Essendon this year on sixteen VFL/AFL premierships each.
Can anything stop Collingwood’s relentless march towards back-to-back flags?
You bet. Despite the Magpies being deserved favourites to win this year’s premiership, there are a few concerns which loom on the horizon for the all-conquering Mapgies.
Memo Mick Malthouse: these are the four hurdles that stand between your club and the sweet taste of premiership glory this year.
Buddy’s Big Day Out
On his day, Hawthorn’s Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin is the most destructive player in the competition, and has the ability to turn any match Hawthorn’s way almost singlehandedly. Add to the mix fellow dynamic forward Cyril Rioli and it becomes clear that the Hawks have the forward line guns to upset the reigning premiers.
Should the Hawks and Mapgies meet during the finals, the Collingwood defenders will be hoping that Buddy and Cyril are not at their best.
Injuries and Suspensions
Collingwood has undoubtedly the deepest list in the AFL, but the Magpies brains trust will still be mindful of the significant number of key players on the sidelines as the finals action draws closer.
The Magpies were missing first choice players Heath Shaw (suspended), Leon Davis (injured), Nick Maxwell (injured), Chris Dawes (injured), Sharrod Wellingham (injured) and Ben Johnson (injured) from their match against Brisbane on Saturday night.
Although the Collingwood list runs deep, the unsettled Collingwood line-up could prove problematic and unsettling at the pointy end of the season.
Geelong’s Quest for Revenge
The Cats are the only team to defeat the Magpies this year, and are entrenched in second spot on the ladder behind the Magpies.
The Cats appear to be gaining pace as the season progresses and will fancy themselves against the Magpies. Having been hammered in last year’s preliminary final by the Mapgies, the Cats will be very keen to seek retribution this season.
Interestingly, the two top sides play each other in the final round of this season. Exactly how both sides approach this match remains to be seen. Will both teams go all out in pursuit of victory and bragging rights, or keep a little bit extra in the tank for finals?
Complacency
Surely hearing how good you are day-in and day-out must begin to affect the headspace of the Collingwood players? The Magpies are poised to end the home and away season with the best percentage of any VFL/AFL side of the past 100 years.
This raises the question – could the biggest risk of all to Collingwood’s 2011 premiership hopes be the players themselves? If they begin to believe their own hype, the club may become susceptible to an embarrassing finals exit.
In the past decade, the side which has finished the minor round on top of the ladder has gone on to win the premiership only four times, and two of the sides which finished top and missed out on premiership glory (St Kilda in 2009 and Geelong in 2008), had similarly sparkling seasons to the 2011 Magpies.
Malthouse need only remind his players of these statistics to ensure they take nothing for granted come the finals.
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- AFL, AFL 2011, Collingwood Magpies, Geelong Cats, Hawthorn Hawks
August 22nd 2011 @ 9:03am
brendan said | August 22nd 2011 @ 9:03am | Report comment
Collingwood are a great side but they are not over the line for the flag.Both West Coast and Geelong have good ruckmen to give there onballers first use of the ball who could be kicking to a three man tall forward line exploiting Collingwood’s tall defenders.If Maxwell doesnt get up that leaves Reid,Tarrant and O’Brien versus Darling,Lynch and Cox/Natanui or Podsiadly,Hawkins and Ottens/Vardy.Three of the last four grand finals,including the draw,the dominant side of the year hasn’t won the flag so anyting can happen.
August 22nd 2011 @ 9:11pm
amazonfan said | August 22nd 2011 @ 9:11pm | Report comment
I agree, Collingwood are no certainties. They are definitely the most likely, but Geelong, Hawthorn, and West Coast are in an excellent position to win as well.
August 22nd 2011 @ 9:05am
Walt said | August 22nd 2011 @ 9:05am | Report comment
I find it interesting that Nick Maxwell can no longer justify his place in the side either. Even if Maxwell was fit to play tomorrow, where does he line up in the team? He is no longer the loose man in defense like he used to be and he isnt going to work in the forward line or on a traditional wing. I wonder if this will become one of the dividing issues between Camp Mick and Camp Nathan coming into September?
August 22nd 2011 @ 9:53am
TomC said | August 22nd 2011 @ 9:53am | Report comment
Kicking for goal. Still their achilles heel.
August 22nd 2011 @ 10:00am
Seano said | August 22nd 2011 @ 10:00am | Report comment
I dont think the Pies have the deapest list, the hwks do they are dominating and have 2 ruckman and there first choice CHF out for the year, doesnt that make there list deaper? Also so thats have to try an fit in a bunch of players to a team that is flying. the pies have to fit in 6 but if you look at there bottom 6 from the round 22 game it will be an easy task. So, they dont have the deapest list but they ARE the favorites. But look out for the bombers to cause some trouble in the finals!!
August 22nd 2011 @ 10:51am
Richard said | August 22nd 2011 @ 10:51am | Report comment
Good summary. I think you have identified the threats to ‘Pies glory this year. I think you’ll find, though, that they are very much aware of these threats down at the Westpac Centre, and that they are being addressed. What I like about the ‘Pies right now is that, deep down, they still have that driving hunger, they still want to win that flag. Desire is a big part of success. My tip? Watch the ‘Pies light up in September.
August 22nd 2011 @ 12:00pm
Red Rocket said | August 22nd 2011 @ 12:00pm | Report comment
Mick,
You really would love to see the Magpies fall wouldn’t you old boy. The Premiership is not a sure thing yet, but bring back Dawes, Wellingham and Heath Shaw and let’s not forget Mick’s drive to stick it up Eddie and its getting close.
Cheers
Rocket
ps. Tamworth Kangaroos are on fire!
August 22nd 2011 @ 8:50pm
Michael Filosi said | August 22nd 2011 @ 8:50pm | Report comment
Rocket,
You’re quite right, I’m not sure how I’ll manage if your Pies go back to back this year, but I don’t think I’m alone there.
If Collingwood does get up in the big one, I’ll be keen to see if Malthouse does take a parting shot at Eddie before retiring to the back of the coaching box.
Glad to hear the Roo boys are up and firing. Great memories.
August 23rd 2011 @ 12:26pm
GrantS said | August 23rd 2011 @ 12:26pm | Report comment
“If Collingwood does get up in the big one, I’ll be keen to see if Malthouse does take a parting shot at Eddie before retiring to the back of the coaching box.”
Absolute odds on bet!
August 24th 2011 @ 3:00am
amazonfan said | August 24th 2011 @ 3:00am | Report comment
The premiership is never a sure thing until the final siren sounds on GF day.
August 22nd 2011 @ 12:03pm
AlfredC said | August 22nd 2011 @ 12:03pm | Report comment
Collingwood looked tired on Saturday night. At times they didn’t look as composed as they have throughout the season and their efficiency was well down on their norm. These final weeks are where we start seeing teams start to burn out and based solely on the past round of football, Hawthorn looks the biggest threat if you take into account Geelong’s lack of intensity against Adelaide a week ago.
They should be equal favorites with Geelong because West Coast can’t win on the road, the Hawks have no back line beyond Josh Gibson. Don’t forget, Geelong has rested a lot more player than Collingwood.
August 22nd 2011 @ 1:44pm
Swampy said | August 22nd 2011 @ 1:44pm | Report comment
Collingwood have been taking power naps over the last few weeks. On the other hand Hawthorn blew them selves out in the second half against the Blues. The Hawks or Cats will be found wanting if it’s a warm day and they find them selves up bagainst the Pies in the Final.
August 22nd 2011 @ 2:08pm
stabpass said | August 22nd 2011 @ 2:08pm | Report comment
I actually was keen to go to the game in Perth this friday night, and turned up to get 2 adults and four kids tickets this morning, but alas, there was only one ticket left for the game ….. just one ticket, crazy stuff, there will not be 44,000 people at Subi on friday, lucky to break 40,000.
Anyway, the way Freo are playing, at about 1/4 time, there will be lucky to be 10,000.
August 22nd 2011 @ 2:40pm
GrantS said | August 22nd 2011 @ 2:40pm | Report comment
stabpass go at quarter time and you will get in for free.
August 22nd 2011 @ 2:38pm
GrantS said | August 22nd 2011 @ 2:38pm | Report comment
Pretty good summary but let’s have a look at each point individually.
“Buddy’s Big Day Out”
In round 15 against, Collingwood, Franklin was kept to 1 goal and had his worst game for the year scoring only 55 dream points. Admittedly Rioli was out injured but Buddy was safely held by Tarrant and Reid getting only 7 kicks.
“Injuries and Suspensions”
Heath Shaw is due back for the finals, a big plus. You have already stated that the Magpies seem to have the deepest list so all things being equal this point should not worry them.
“Geelong’s Quest for Revenge”
Last year Geelong won the first round encounter then Collingwood won the second round meeting and the preliminary final convincingly.
This season Geelong won the first encounter by three points but anyone who saw the game knows Collingwood’s poor kicking (not superior play by Geelong) was the reason for their loss. The last round will, as you point out, be very interesting.
“Complacency”
If you truly believe that any team, coached by Mick Malthouse, would go into a finals series with a complacent attitude then you do not have the same respect for the man that I do.
Our game is such that any team can win on a given day and hence the interest in the finals but for mine it’s another Magpie Premiership.
August 22nd 2011 @ 6:27pm
Football Fan said | August 22nd 2011 @ 6:27pm | Report comment
GrantS – you must have only watched the Cats/Pies game for a little while, cos you obviously forgot Geelong kicking 1.9 and wasting their dominant periods early in the game…
Agree on the complacency though – that’s a media myth. I couldn’t name a team that slackens off in the finals. Except for Port
And I’m pretty sure that round 15 won’t matter for Buddy, Taz and Reid when September comes around!
August 22nd 2011 @ 9:08pm
amazonfan said | August 22nd 2011 @ 9:08pm | Report comment
When were Port complacent?
August 22nd 2011 @ 11:25pm
Walt said | August 22nd 2011 @ 11:25pm | Report comment
Complacent Port Adelaide?
2001 Semi Final V Hawthorn
2002 Qualifying Final V Collingwood
2003 Qualifying Final V Sydney
Ugghhh – I am sick in my mouth a little more every time I think of the extra premiership we should have won (not 2007 though)
August 23rd 2011 @ 12:24pm
GrantS said | August 23rd 2011 @ 12:24pm | Report comment
I’m not so sure that Buddy wont have it in the back of his “scone” that he was well and truly beaten in round 15.
Regardless Mighty Mick will have a game plan to neutralize him and Rioli.
I’m still betting on a Geelong/Collingwood Grand Final.
August 22nd 2011 @ 10:37pm
Swampy said | August 22nd 2011 @ 10:37pm | Report comment
What a bunch of homers. I’m not a ‘top 4′ supporter so my opinion is from a neutral standpoint. Hawks are good but inconsistent. Does no one remember the Pies laying the smackdown on the Hawks on the same weekend the Cats were beaten by a struggling Essendon outfit? Collingwood are an irrepressible force. The last few weeks they haven’t gone close to having their strongest team – which they will have in the finals and they are still winning comfortably.
We can only hope for some kind of scandal involving the whole list to stop that stupid song being played after the siren in October.
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August 23rd 2011 @ 12:20pm
GrantS said | August 23rd 2011 @ 12:20pm | Report comment
“homers” ????
I’m an Essendon fan and count myself lucky to be in the top eight, let alone top four, so how is your “standpoint” any more neutral than mine?