The tale of the Tri Nations tape

The Wallabies take on the All Blacks this weekend in Brisbane. Despite the looming presence of the 2011 Rugby World Cup being just 16 days away, there is still a lot at stake for both teams. It is a full dress-rehearsal for a possible Rugby World Cup final and the last game before opening night.

Firstly, there is a trophy, the Tri Nations championship.

The Wallabies last won it in 2001. The All Blacks are the current holders.

From a team and coach’s perspective, momentum, self-belief and that winning feeling is invaluable at this stage of the four-year cycle. The most important rugby game is the next game.

From the player’s point of view, everyone is trying to advance their cause, whether that be getting into the starting team, or onto the bench. At the same time, the fear of failure is creating tension in the players minds. “After 4 years of effort and sacrifice, don’t blow it now.”

In the last game, the All Blacks had a comprehensive win. The Wallabies simply didn’t turn up. They lacked intensity and played rugby that defied the fundamentals of the game.

Rod Kafer said that they looked intimidated by what he considered to be the best Haka he had ever witnessed. The Wallabies never recovered.

The 10 scrums went with the head in Eden Park, but the All Blacks disrupted several Wallabies scrum wins. The Wallabies scrum should be stronger and more stable with Vickerman in the second row.

Samo is also more effective 8 than McCalman when the shove comes on from the All Blacks.

Of the 26 lineouts, the All Blacks won two against the throw while the Wallabies won three against the throw.

The ruck statistics were surprisingly in favour of Australia. Classifying the rucks as fast, normal or slow, the Wallabies performed better (36%, 53% and 11%) than the All Blacks (35%, 42% and 23%).

The All Blacks turned the ball over 20 times to the Wallabies’ 24 times. The Wallabies ran for 800 metres compared to the All Blacks’ 685 metres.

The All Blacks made 155 tackles at a 80% success rate to the Wallabies 119 tackles and a 76% success rate.

The statistics do not reflect that the game was essentially over after just 22 minutes when the score was 17-0, and two tries to nil.

James O’Connor had an off-night with the boot, missing all three penalty attempts.

The Wallabies cannot afford to repeat the Eden Park performance.

In their favour, they are playing at home in front of a very vocal and patriotic crowd. Their last out performance was a true Test match performance.

If they can replicate this discipline and pressure, and choose the moments to strike and then strike with “shock and awe”, they can pressure the All Blacks in a way that they have not been pressured for years.

This game has the potential to create a major impact on the loser’s mindset going into the Rugby World Cup.

If the All Blacks again dominate the Wallabies as they did in Eden Park, the Wallabies can no longer harbour pretensions to win the Cup. They are simply not ready in time to do so.

If the Wallabies defeat the All Blacks with a comprehensive physical display of Test match rugby, the All Blacks will know that they are over the hill and that their Achilles Heel will be fully exposed for all to see.

Only then will we know if either team, with their very different approaches, selections and preparations for the Rugby World Cup, can win this most exciting tournament.