He will be a four-game player, yet holds the power to significantly influence the future of the competition. As speculation mounts over Butcher’s potential return to home state Victoria, how much can Port Adelaide demand if he chooses not to resign?
At a height of 197cm, with excellent hands from what we’ve seen in his three games and under-18 performances, Butcher is the player teams would build around for the future.
Stepping straight into the elite level and performing, three dominant games have convinced most people that Butcher will succeed in the AFL.
At 20 years old, Butcher’s AFL debut was delayed due to an extensive layoff after injuring his back. Considered the early runner to be the number one pick in the 2009 draft, his stocks fell following hip surgery after the 2008 season.
This weakened his output in 2009 compared to 2008. Due to this, Butcher fell in the draft to number eight but was still the first key position player selected.
His first three games have netted 11 goals, including ten in the last two. But what has got commentators jumping are his contested marks.
Taking ten in three games against quality defenders, Butcher possesses the hands which players feel confident kicking to.
Travis Cloke (87), James Podsiadly (47) and Drew Petrie (46) lead the competition in contested marks, all of whom win games for their respective teams when on song.
The recent signings of Jackson Trengove and Alipate Carlisle have increased pressure on Butcher to re-sign but to the dismay of Port Adelaide officials, he has publicly stated he is weighing up his options.
Contested marking forwards are the hardest position to fill and history suggests, few are traded or walk away from the club that drafted them after only two seasons.
This, of course, does not take into account the current situation at Port Adelaide, where a lack of revenue and football department spending is damaging player performance.
Over the past decade, power forwards who have won premierships at their second club include only Cameron Mooney and Barry Hall. These forwards are incredibly rare to come by and Butcher looms as the only young power forward under 23 to enter the market since Hall joined Sydney in 2002.
I purposely excluded Josh Kennedy because he was never deemed on the market, but this only further demonstrates the currency a young power forward can demand.
Overall, the trade was Josh Kennedy, pick three and 20 for the game’s best player.
In 2005 and 2006, Hall dominated defenders kicking 80 and 78 goals respectively, culminating in Grand Final appearance both years. Although Mooney did not return as many goals, his influence in Geelong’s two flags was equally effective.
Butcher could expect to have a similar level of influence.
Barry Hall demanded picks 13, 17 and 45 while Mooney was worth Geelong’s captain Leigh Colbert and pick 15.
Although a history of injuries at a young age may reduce Butcher’s value, the opportunity to gain a ten-year power forward has already enticed Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne and Carlton.
With Carlton’s list more mature than the former three’s, Butcher would walk into immediate success at Carlton where he would be in premiership contention for several years.
At the other three clubs, he would fit the same age group as their developing core of youngsters, where a sustainable string of success would be enticing.
Just imagine Butcher in the same forward line as Jack Watts or Jack Rewoldt. Butcher is delivered the ball by Chris Judd and Marc Murphy.
There is no doubt Butcher is worth at least a first round pick. If Hall was worth a first, a second and a fourth at the age of 23, Butcher should be slightly less because Hall had proven himself.
That would leave Butcher as a first and second.
This doesn’t take into account that this year is a compromised draft and draft picks are not worth as much as in the past.
That bumps Butcher up to two first round picks. In a draft considered by the experts as ‘thin’ after the first dozen selections, one of those must be within the first twelve.
In a severe state of rebuilding, it is unlikely Port Adelaide will accept an experienced player as part of a trade, but two first round selections would be a better deal than what Port would get if he were to walk out and join GWS.
Although this is purely speculation and there is every chance Butcher will sign with Port Adelaide in the coming days, the rarity of a power forward entering the market will see clubs pay big to secure their key forward of the future.
There is risk involved with acquiring a player of so few games, but these are the kinds of risks clubs must take if they want to win a premiership.
Welp
Guest
Well... This article is pretty funny now :'D
Josh
Guest
Oh how wrong we all were!
Ando
Guest
Jack, amazing prediction. Just amazing.
Milne
Guest
Jack, you are a freakin' clairvoyant! Other than the stuff about Butcher, everything you predicted as happened!
GREG
Guest
GREAT COMMENT JACK. THE VICTORIAN SCRIBES WERE CALLING PORT A COT CASE AND SAYING THAT THERE WOULD BE A MASS EXODUS OF PLAYERS. "COULDNT WAIT TO GET OUT OF THE PLACE" THEY TOLD US. WELL GUESS WHAT. ALL REQUIRED PLAYERS HAVE NOW RE-SIGNED. TWO OTHER NAMES THAT NO ONE HAS SEEN YET............ BEN NEWTON.............A WA DRAFTEE LAST YEAR WHO HAS HAD INJURY WORRIES ALL YEAR. THE PLAYERS LOVE HIM, HE IS TOUGH AND KICKS LONG. AARON YOUNG............WAS AN EMERGENCY FOR THE LAST MATCH BUT HEARD MATTY LLOYD SAY HE COACHED HIM AT THE AIS AND THAT HE WILL BE A VERY GOOD PLAYER FOR PORT. SO A VERY GOOD NUCLEUS OF PLAYERS GOING FORWARD..............BOAK, GRAY, CARLILE, TRENGOVE, BUTCHER, PITTARD, LOBBE, YOUNG, NEWTON, HARTLETT, BUTCHER, JACOBS, WESTHOFF, MOORE. THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT, THE CLUB IS SAYING IT IS GOING TO TAKE FEW YEARS TO CLIMB THE LADDER, BUT I THINK THAT IS A BIT OF A SMOKESCREEN. EVERYONE HAS FORGOTTEN THAT PORT WON 10 GAMES LAST SEASON AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT WERE 9 LOSSES IN A ROW. NOT SURPRISINGLY THIS RUN OF LOSSES CO-INCIDED WITH OFF FIELD TURMOIL REGARDING MARK WILLIAMS AND OTHER TURBULENT ISSUES. THE FUTURE LOOKS BRIGHT PORT FANS.
Jack
Guest
Butcher has just resigned with port i hear, Just on another note im an essendon supporter living in adelaide so i get a closer more balanced view of the SA clubs than most victorians i think if port get their fitness & coaching staff right they should improve pretty quickly as their list is nowhere near as bad as the victorian media would have you believe, IMO boak, grey, butcher, hartlett just to name a few are absolute gun players in the making.
GREG
Guest
Alfred C........a 4 or 5 year deal sounds great for the player drafted. A bit of security you might say. BUT......have you considered the situation if the player drafted is a dud. Oh, no worries,,,,,,,,yet another paid out player. Yeh, we can really afford to throw more money down the drain.!!
GREG
Guest
You are all wasting your time. Butcher will be a long term player at Port Adelaide.
Sean
Guest
Pretty sure the Swans do 3 year contracts for draftees.
Leigh
Guest
Port have not received anymore special thyan most other clubs in the AFL. Even Carlton have recenctly received AFL assistance. Check out the dollar figure that clubs like WB, Sydney, Richmond, NM, Melb etc. These clubs have received assistance in the $10m to $20m range over time. It is an absolute fallacy to suggest Port are getting any special treatment. Also if Port had a decent stadium deal they would not be in their current financial predicament. Adelaide for example made a loss last year and are predicting another loss this year. All down to the stadium deal.
Alfred Chan
Expert
Leigh, PA are not a popular club in Melbourne where the majority of AFL writing occurs. It doesn't just apply to PA though. In general, Victorians care more about clubs they do not follow in Victoria than they do interstate teams. That's because there are so few supporters in Victoria who defend PA. Their popularity in S.A is questionable based on the amount of supporters who turn up to their games. They are receiving a lot of negative coverage due to the amount of the special treatment they are receiving from the AFL financially. All hell will break loose next year if they finish with less than 5 wins to get a priority pick in an un-compromised draft while still being funded by the AFL!
Walt
Guest
Of course we will have the last laugh - we always do. But honestly, we are unpopular. When playing interstate, the crowds are not good. Port sells barely any merchandise outside of SA, the media dont seek out Port Adelaide players or officials when they are in town for a game and Port games dont get high TV ratings. I love the club but I accept that we arent everyones darlings.
Leigh
Guest
Why is Port an unpopular club? I dont think they have dobbed a player in from another or had a series of players with off-field misdemeanours like another Adelaide based AFL club. Very selective criticism. The Port bashing this year has been childish, unprofessional and quite often the peddling of damm right lies. For example last week a sports journalist from a national newspaper, wrote that the Carlisle to GWS deal was done. Funny but I actually knew at the time that he had already signed with Port. Just another example of rubbish journalism. Port might be an easy target for now, but with the quality of their young players and the impending support staff coming to work with Primus, I would suggest that Port will have the last laugh.
Walt
Guest
Off topic I know but the Port bashing has been unusually ferocious this year. Yes, they need to take their share of criticism but some of it has been over the top. Port is an unpopular club and so the Melbourne media can sink the boot in without upsetting too many Herald-Sun readers or 3AW listeners. See where I am coming from? I liken it to when a cute girl and an ugly girl fall in the mud. The cute girl can recover quicker and the boys are less likely to rub it in - but the ugly girl, god help her.
Creek
Roar Rookie
This is what happens when a team is struggling. Every year the bottom teams cop a beating. It was Melbourne and Richmond and North Melbourne in previous seasons, Melbourne still cops it a bit. It is just Port's turn.
Creek
Roar Rookie
It's not so much money-driven, just that you get a greater amount of players playing to their fullest because they have a good incentive. You see if every year, a player is in a contract year, plays the best season of his career and get to sign a massive new contract with a big guaranteed figure, then the next season his play drops right off, he got his money so he doesn't need to prove himself anymore, but come the next contract year, you see him up there again going his hardest. The NFL is signing a heap more 1 and 2-year deals now to keep the average players playing their best football. This culture though is a breeding ground for hunger and disloyalty, as players want to play for teams they have a better chance to start on the field rather than play for their current team where they are a 2nd or 3rd string player. In the AFL good players want to play for successful teams because they get tied to success. I doubt anyone wants to move to Port Adelaide or Gold Coast or GWS without getting financially compensated. However players will take a fair pay cut just to be involved with Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood. In my opionion, if the AFL adopted the NFL-style non-guaranteed contracts you'd see the good teams losing thier stockpile of good players and the quality would be more evenly distibuted. Good teams would lose a bit of depth, but bad teams would gain good players, so the good teams are brought back a bit and the bad teams are caught up. Parity within the competition is more achieveable.
Leigh
Guest
More Port bashing by the Roar. Bad luck to spoil your party, but Butcher will re-sign with Port Adelaide. And if other clubs really want him, why did they not take the punt with the 7 picks they all had before Port. Typical and pathetic that these clubs are suddenly interested. Why dont they develop their own players. But as I said, I know that Butcher is about to sign on the dotted line with Port. Perhaps the roar should try bashing another club for a change as it is becoming too predictable with their constant Port bashing.
Alfred Chan
Expert
I'm not sure how much player managers have to do with the whole process, but the incentive of signing draftees to short contracts is that the next one will be worth a lot more. I think AFL lacks a certain innovation within contracts because there are so few playing metrics beyond games played, All-Australian and B&F placings. While I suspect those three are the primary incentive clauses in AFL contracts, players may be hostile towards a long term contract because they feel their value will increase significantly over the long run after two years. When you look at NFL draftee contracts, they are usually 4-5 years contracts (FA comes into effect after 5) but they are heavily incentive based after the first two which is why a contract might be worth $20m but only $8m is guaranteed. If you look at the John Butcher contract, I completely agree that high draftees warrant longer contracts. Say Butcher were to be offered a 4 year deal. Guarantee him the first two and then pay him above the market rate by incentive. If he is superstar, then the club looses a bit of money, but hey - they have a superstar. If he can't meet the incentives for his first 2-3 years (which he would be trying pretty hard to do if he wants a bigger contract later), both parties can exercise options for his release. This of course is why NFL players are so money driven.
Walt
Guest
Go and call the Fev if you want a forward. Butcher isnt going anywhere.
Bayman
Guest
Ian, I'm inclined to agree with you. Surely clubs must think their recruitment people can spot talent. Surely, then, if the club recruits a high draft pick they think he can play and, presumably, will serve their club well for years. Given that, why not a longer contract? Or are the clubs really saying, "Frankly, we have no more idea than the man in the street - we just pay truckloads to people to get it wrong all the time.".