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He will be a four-game player, yet holds the power to significantly influence the future of the competition. As speculation mounts over Butcher’s potential return to home state Victoria, how much can Port Adelaide demand if he chooses not to resign?
At a height of 197cm, with excellent hands from what we’ve seen in his three games and under-18 performances, Butcher is the player teams would build around for the future.
Stepping straight into the elite level and performing, three dominant games have convinced most people that Butcher will succeed in the AFL.
At 20 years old, Butcher’s AFL debut was delayed due to an extensive layoff after injuring his back. Considered the early runner to be the number one pick in the 2009 draft, his stocks fell following hip surgery after the 2008 season.
This weakened his output in 2009 compared to 2008. Due to this, Butcher fell in the draft to number eight but was still the first key position player selected.
His first three games have netted 11 goals, including ten in the last two. But what has got commentators jumping are his contested marks.
Taking ten in three games against quality defenders, Butcher possesses the hands which players feel confident kicking to.
Travis Cloke (87), James Podsiadly (47) and Drew Petrie (46) lead the competition in contested marks, all of whom win games for their respective teams when on song.
The recent signings of Jackson Trengove and Alipate Carlisle have increased pressure on Butcher to re-sign but to the dismay of Port Adelaide officials, he has publicly stated he is weighing up his options.
Contested marking forwards are the hardest position to fill and history suggests, few are traded or walk away from the club that drafted them after only two seasons.
This, of course, does not take into account the current situation at Port Adelaide, where a lack of revenue and football department spending is damaging player performance.
Over the past decade, power forwards who have won premierships at their second club include only Cameron Mooney and Barry Hall. These forwards are incredibly rare to come by and Butcher looms as the only young power forward under 23 to enter the market since Hall joined Sydney in 2002.
I purposely excluded Josh Kennedy because he was never deemed on the market, but this only further demonstrates the currency a young power forward can demand.
Overall, the trade was Josh Kennedy, pick three and 20 for the game’s best player.
In 2005 and 2006, Hall dominated defenders kicking 80 and 78 goals respectively, culminating in Grand Final appearance both years. Although Mooney did not return as many goals, his influence in Geelong’s two flags was equally effective.
Butcher could expect to have a similar level of influence.
Barry Hall demanded picks 13, 17 and 45 while Mooney was worth Geelong’s captain Leigh Colbert and pick 15.
Although a history of injuries at a young age may reduce Butcher’s value, the opportunity to gain a ten-year power forward has already enticed Melbourne, Richmond, North Melbourne and Carlton.
With Carlton’s list more mature than the former three’s, Butcher would walk into immediate success at Carlton where he would be in premiership contention for several years.
At the other three clubs, he would fit the same age group as their developing core of youngsters, where a sustainable string of success would be enticing.
Just imagine Butcher in the same forward line as Jack Watts or Jack Rewoldt. Butcher is delivered the ball by Chris Judd and Marc Murphy.
There is no doubt Butcher is worth at least a first round pick. If Hall was worth a first, a second and a fourth at the age of 23, Butcher should be slightly less because Hall had proven himself.
That would leave Butcher as a first and second.
This doesn’t take into account that this year is a compromised draft and draft picks are not worth as much as in the past.
That bumps Butcher up to two first round picks. In a draft considered by the experts as ‘thin’ after the first dozen selections, one of those must be within the first twelve.
In a severe state of rebuilding, it is unlikely Port Adelaide will accept an experienced player as part of a trade, but two first round selections would be a better deal than what Port would get if he were to walk out and join GWS.
Although this is purely speculation and there is every chance Butcher will sign with Port Adelaide in the coming days, the rarity of a power forward entering the market will see clubs pay big to secure their key forward of the future.
There is risk involved with acquiring a player of so few games, but these are the kinds of risks clubs must take if they want to win a premiership.
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