David Wojcinski of Geelong takes a spectacular mark over Alex Fasolo of Collingwood during the AFL Round 24 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Geelong Cats at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images.
It’s a rare moment when your team shreds the unbackable favourites and reigning premier by nigh on 100 points, and you can’t decide whether you’re pleased. But looking at recent history, some Cats fans might be wishing Friday night’s result had gone differently.
In 2007, a seesawing match in Round 21 saw Port Adelaide snatch a last-second win by five points down at whatever Kardinia Park was being called at the time. The Cats’ winning streak that had begun in Round 6 was snapped.
Port was buoyant when they faced Geelong in the grand final a few weeks later. By the end of that afternoon, they had copped the worst beating in grand final history.
In Round 17 2008, the Cats held off Hawthorn in one of the most intense and punishing matches of the season, getting home by 11 points. Grand final day was supposed to follow suit, but the Hawks inflicted Geelong’s second loss of the season.
In 2009, St Kilda and Geelong both started the season with 13 wins. Their Round 14 classic was another brutal encounter, which saw the Saints praised as the new standard-bearers after winning by a late goal.
Geelong went into that year’s grand final as definite underdogs, but came away with the win.
Win during the season, lose in the finals.
So if the nation’s footy tippers are right, and this year does end up with a Collingwood-Geelong grand final, surely the best result for the Cats would have been a narrow hard-fought loss in Round 24?
Of course, trying to predict the future from the past can be a pointless pursuit. One of the cleverer inventions that casinos have devised to screw money from people is the roulette table ‘tree’ – the board that displays the last fifteen or twenty results.
The human brain can’t help looking for patterns, and from there extrapolating. Just watch punters start hammering red after a croupier spins eight or ten blacks in a row. Mathematically, the odds are the same as ever, but some part of our minds can’t help thinking the streak has to break.
Finding a pattern in football’s win-loss scenario is a little more plausible though, given we can add the aspect of human psychology.
For the sides that lose, there is the sense they may have avoided completely showing their hand.
The side that wins may have given more away than they intended.
And regardless of how much video training and remote strategy goes on these days, facing a team’s methods gives a far greater insight than any amount of scouting or briefing.
For the side that wins, they may end up with an unreasonable sense of confidence, and start preparing for a type of match that will not in fact be forthcoming.
The losers, meantime, remove a little of the pressure of expectation – that which comes from outside sources, and that which comes from themselves. In accepting the chance that they could lose next time around, they can take a fearless approach to trying to win.
All that said, this win will have run the Cats into form and confidence.
The most important factor by far was the performance by Geelong’s young brigade, who were not just useful, but crucial. Late in the first quarter, despite dominating play, the Cats had kicked five points to the Pies’ four goals. It looked like they were in for a torrid night.
Enter the teenager, the much injured rookie, the first-year player.
Daniel Menzel kicked three goals to half time on his way to five for the night. Mitch Duncan was prominent all over the ground. The diminutive Allen Christensen grew to enormous stature on the field, leaping, harassing, demanding possessions through sheer persistence. He bagged three goals in the second quarter.
Tom Hawkins hauled down a shoulder-ride screamer in the goal square. Mature-age second-year James Podsiadly fought and bullocked. Travis Varcoe had his best game in the blue and white, finally doing justice to his recent ball-magnet status with consistent and accurate disposal. He kicked two goals and created four more.
Between them, they began a staggering scoring run of 90 points to Collingwood’s six. The scoresheet from Geelong’s first goal to the shadows of half time read Menzel, Hawkins, Menzel, Christensen, Christensen, Podsiadly, Duncan, Mackie, Christensen, Menzel.
Christensen apparently was overlooked by a number of clubs due to high skin-fold results at draft camps. The Cats picked him up cheap with pick 40. No doubt a few recruiters are wishing a ham toastie could lure him to their sides now.
The exploits of the young fired up the older guard too. Paul Chapman gritted his teeth in gearing up for another injury-hampered September, his scything delivery inside 50 slicing the play open, with three goals of his own the reaped reward.
David Wojcinski played his strongest game in weeks, dashing through the middle on several occasions, and hauling in one of those rare screamers where the guy keeps going up even after he’s taken the ball. It made you look around for a forklift driver.
Josh Hunt regained some equanimity after looking the weak link in losses to Essendon and West Coast.
To test whether the mojo is truly back will be Hawthorn, that side that Geelong has beaten time and again in recent years except for the one day when it really mattered. Next Friday night will see those two sides open the finals with a contest of the utmost class.
Make it past them, and it’ll likely be the Eagles, the old foe of the early 90s. They’ve run back into blazing form, discovered new stars, and are a genuine premiership chance.
Not to worry though. They beat the Cats by eight points just a few weeks ago.
Follow Geoff on Twitter: @GeoffLemonSport
Bayman
Guest
Ladies, It remains to be seen if Collingwood's 96 point loss is a bad thing at this point of the season - but it sure as hell can't be a good thing! Some interesting results coming out of the final round of footy. The Eagles look in pretty good nick. The Hawks will be better off the inclusion of the magnificent eight (or is that seven plus one). The Blues dropped one they should have won which raises serious doubts about their ability to beat Essendon, the Swans have done all that could be expected (what was that aberration with Richmond?), the Maggies are the Maggies, the Cats have bounced back after never looking like it against the Swans a week earlier and the Bombers, well, who knows. The Saints continue to play above their collective ability and I still can't bring myself to rate them - but they keep on winning. As for the 2011 premiers I have no idea.......but it could be Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn or the Saints (least likely).
brendan
Guest
Richard ,the mantra i follow in footy is there are three seasons in a year the home and away ,finals and g/f.The team that deserves to be premiership favourites will be the best winner of the top four on saturday night.Fridays game was wierd Geelong were fantastic but equally did Collingwood have anything to gain after half time.The expected bad weather might make all games this week tight so it could get down to effort not ability.Part of me wants to forget fridays game as an aberration but also the punter in me thinks Cats at 4.5 for the flag over the red hot faves is hard to resist.
Tony
Guest
Geoff, the bookies prices reflect a public sentiment which clearly said the Cats were anything but "definite underdogs". Nor was there "no doubt" the Saints "had the better form and pedigree going into that match." In the last four home & away games the Saints beat Hawthorn (9), lost to Essendon (8), lost to North (13), beat Melbourne (16) for 2 and 2. Over the same period the Cats lost to Carlton (7), beat Sydney (12), lost to the Bulldogs (3), beat Fremantle (14), also for 2 and 2. In the finals the Saints thumped Collingwood, then squeaked past the Bulldogs. The Cats squeaked past the Bulldogs, then thumped Collingwood. Pretty similar form lines.
hehee
Guest
Pies will win all three of their next games, no doubt about it! Their loss to Geelong was a trick. Why would a team who has won 20 games this year just lose by a record margin? Like it kind of seems like they were trying, but they just had little intention to win.
TomC
Guest
Tony is right. At the very least 'definite underdogs' is far too strong. The Saints season seemed to atrophy towards the end of the year as it became clear they were going to finish top. Those two losses came in rounds 20 and 21, and they had narrowly won a scrappy clash against the Bulldogs the week before, while Geelong had pummelled Collingwood. The Cats had played in the previous two GFs. The Saints were in their first since 1997. There were plenty of good reasons to back the Cats, and many did.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
And hey, if the bookies say so... The Cats lost four of the last nine and were generally being written off as past their use-by date. The Saints had been the team to beat all season - they lost two games by a total of seven points and played brilliantly all season. They also dominated the GF early and let themselves down with bad kicking. No doubt they had the better form and pedigree going into that match.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Would love that! Yeah, the Weagles and Magpies should be a stunning contest. Looking forward to it.
Richard
Roar Guru
Cats showed they're a mighty team still. Superb performance on Friday. They deserve to be Flag Favourites this year and they should be.
Billy from Heidelberg
Guest
Word is, Malthouse let Nathan Buckley do the coaching on Friday night and just stood back. You'd be concerned if you were a Pies fan. Collingwood are in for a tough one against West Coast. I would say the Eagles are a real chance to get over the line. They are too big for the Maggies. It looks like it will be a Carlton v. Collingwood semi final in week 2 of the finals.
Matt F
Guest
I've never really been a believer in the theory that a team on a big winning streak needs a loss just before finals, though I don't think it nescessarily hurt them either. It's normally a good kick up the backside a team needs to snap out of inevitable complacency which comes with winning so many games in a row. A quick look at the last decade shows that Brisbane in 2001were the last premiers not to lose a game in the last month of the reqular season/qualifying final and still win the flag. Geelong had their loss last week and Collingwood this week so they're both on track judging by that stat. Given their respective 8 and 7 game winning streaks maybe the Hawks and Eagles need to throw their qualifying finals!
Tony
Guest
The 2009 grand final:
Definite underdogs? TAB/Centrebet - St Kilda $2.30 vs. Geelong $1.60 Sportingbet - St Kilda $2.10 vs. Geelong $1.72brendan
Guest
The loss to the Swans falls into the category you have described.Collingwood lost by a record margin to Geelong so that result may resonate forever.Admittedly the game was meaningless but flirting with form is dangerous before the finals.Maybe Collingwood will turn the tables in the finals but if the Carringbush dont win it last fridays nights game will be seen as the start of the end.
TomC
Guest
I'm pretty sure you could pick out far more examples where the premier had between the other grand finalist in the home and away season. Each of Brisbane's three premierships, for example. But as Geoff says, the point isn't the result, but what you learn from it. Hard to imagine that Geelong learnt more from Friday night than Collingwood did. My feeling is that Malthouse had pushed the Magpies hard during the week, with a plan to taper them off before the WCE game. That fits in with his generally pragmatic approach, and also with the oddly lead-footed performance on Friday. If that's the case, then you'd expect Collingwood to have far too much staying power for the Eagles this Saturday. As Gerard Whateley said on Offsiders on Sunday, we'll only know what the significance of this result was in a few weeks time.
Football Fan
Guest
Finally we get into the real stuff. I've never watched a round of football with less interest as what I just did for round 24... Anything that happened last weekend is irrelevant because the pressure and skill level will ramp up so much from this week that only teams who know what's coming will be able to handle it. For me there's only 4 teams that are tuned for finals football: Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and St Kilda. These teams know what it takes to win massive games and they also know how it feels when you lose them. You could also throw the Eagles in there as well but we'll find out this weekend! Friday night's game is the biggest of the year for mine - if all goes to plan the loser gets St Kilda, then Collingwood in the prelim. And if you think that's bad, if the Eagles beat the Pies, you're off to Perth for a Prelim!! Might be worth noting that Geelong haven't beaten hawthorn in a finals game since 1963, too....