As the Rugby World Cup 2011 dawns, the studying of squad selections, tactics and pre-tournament form has been exhausted by journos, pundits and armchair experts from Invercargill to Inverness.
But still we really have no idea who will hold aloft the William Webb Ellis trophy when the final whistle is blown.
So I asked myself, what is a sure thing going into this World Cup? I found myself thinking not so much of what teams will do, but what they will not be able to do if they lose certain key players during the pool and or finals series.
It sounds negative but really if we forensically examine some of the squads, it becomes evident to me that each team is really only one or two injuries away from potential World Cup oblivion.
Let’s focus the microscope on the teams, then:
New Zealand
Dan Carter: New Zealand will not win the World Cup if this genius sustains a serious injury. This man is the best fly half on the planet. Colin Slade is a fine player, but he is not Dan Carter. If Carter were to be injured, I have no doubt New Zealand would adapt, but in my opinion Carter is too crucial to the All Black cause.
Richie McCaw: I am not sure the back up of Victor Vito and Adam Thompson is enough to cover a potential loss of McCaw. Let’s face it, you can’t replace McCaw; he is a once in a generation player. You just do your best to get on without him. I fear if McCaw were lost to injury, New Zealand would find compensation for leadership via Thorn, Mealamu and Carter, but they would not be as effective at the breakdown.
Australia
Will Genia: Recently likened to Ken Catchpole and deservedly so. Much of the Wallabies attack starts with Genia; his ability to find gaps and exploit them is crucial to Wallaby success. His support play is also understated. He is a complete modern half back. With respect to Burgess, Australia will be not be winning ‘Bill’ without Will.
David Pocock: Like New Zealand, Australia appears to only have taken one specialist open side flanker into the tournament. A risk indeed and one I would not have taken. However, it’s not my team and Robbie Deans obviously thinks he can potentially win the cup without Pocock. I don’t agree.
South Africa
Bismark Du Plessis: With respect to John Smit, the battleship will be required if the Saffa’s wish to retain the cup. Smit is an aged champion and Rappapelle is okay. Bismark brings physicality, directness and a high work rate. Without him South Africa will struggle against stronger sides come finals.
Morne Steyn: It appears Peter de Villiers will play the 2007 tactics of which much is reliant on a solid forward platform and kicking game. I think they will get the platform, but without the ability with the boot they get from Morne, their plan may faulter. Lambie, James and Fran Steyn are not as good on the boot at Morne. If they wish to play 2007 rugby then Morne will be required.
England
Johnny Wilkinson: Toby Flood is a good player, but like Dan Carter is to New Zealand, I can’t see Hannovarians winning without Wilkinson. I mean, if I were English and it was an England versus New Zealand final, would you want Flood or Johnny? Johnny all day for me because he has been there and done that.
Ireland
Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell: Ireland’s form leading up to this year’s tournament has been poor. Both vastly experienced internationals with Lions caps to their names, O’Driscoll and O’Connell are vital to Ireland’s cause. Without them there is not enough depth in the Irish squad to compensate. If Ireland are any chance these two must remain fit.
Scotland
Dan Parks and Nathan Hines: Scotland’s Aussies are vital to the Scot’s chances. The other half Jackson is yet to fully establish himself as an international. Parks on the other hand has a solid kicking game, which will be required against sterner opposition as field position and penalties will be crucial to Scotland’s game. Hines on the other hand has the experience of 75 caps and a Lions tour under his belt. Losing that experience would be damaging to Scotland’s lineout, and hard to replace.
Wales
Steven Jones and Huw Bennett: Jones has 100-plus caps and Wales will require all Jones’ experience to progress to the latter stages. Hook is a fine player, but for mine Jones has proven temperament. With the loss of Matt Rees much will resting of the shoulder of Huw Bennett, as his reserves in Burns and Owens boast three caps between them. If Wales lose Bennett I fear their set piece will fold.
France
Aurlien Rougirie and Vincent Clerc: Between these two they have scored 47 Test tries. They have proven firepower and experience. Rougirie at 193cm and Clerc 179cm makes them two separate styles of player, but both have the same effect. They know how to score tries. Without these outside backs I think France would struggle.
Samoa
Schwalger and Tualigi: I confess I do not know much of these players, however I thought both were excellent in their historic win over the Wallabies. Samoa play a very dimensional game based on smash and bash. It works well, especially with these two. I fear without them Samoa would lose leadership and go forward out wide.
I really hope we don’t see any serious injuries during the tournament as we want to see the best play the best.
However, let’s be realistic, rugby is a contact sport and people get hurt. If the aforementioned players find themselves out, I fear their countries chances of winning the Webb Ellis Trophy will also be sidelined.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
As Sheek said, injuries are part of World Cups. Tony Woodcock has tweaked his hamstring and Bakkies Botha is in doubt for South Africa's opening match. Those are normal pre-match injuries, but you can expect more of them with so much test rugby over the next few weeks. From an All Black perspective, resting players was part of the reason why the team performance fell away on the away leg and it didn't prevent Read from winding up in a moonboot. You can't cheat these things. I hope we see a strong All Black side named against Tonga regardless of people worrying about injuries. The All Blacks need a good physical game. A lot of their players haven't been physical *enough* this season. If they've been saving it for the World Cup then now's the time to show it. Here's hoping we see some contact.
Rugby realist
Guest
Very good article, in particular in response to the recent argument from Stuart Barnes (that NZ are a risk because of their reliance on McCaw and Carter. As you (and even Steve Hansen was on the money for once) rightly point out in your article there are players from each side that are irreplaceable. It comes back to the intangible feature of tournament sport, luck. It could be a beneficial draw (SA 07), or no injuries to key squad members (Eng 03..although R Hill was injured at start), but there are factors that teams just cannot completely plan for. Say what you will about developing back ups to Carter, McCaw, Pocock etc, you cant replace the best of the world in most instances (well, except when NZ had Nick Evans) Having said that, i agree with posters that a specialist open side should have been picked for Aus and NZ.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Hi Sheek, its an interesting point you make in relation to unexpected good results from injury. Yes Sean Fitzpatrick and Michael Jones went onto be the great players they were always going to be, Hobbs and Dalton were in the twighlight of their careers. I can't see the youth any too many of the top squads, too many unknows who will burst onto the scene. There was opportunity in Matt Todd of New Zealand or even Beau Robinson of Australia both which had fantastic Super 15 seasons but neither were selected. Colin Slade is a fine player but has played little rugby this year. What if he comes into an AB line up in a semi or final, he does not have much to fall back on this year. He may prove me wrong but from what of seen of Slade he is just a guy who does his job, he is no boy wonder, but thats might be all that s required if it is required at all. I just think if we scratch under the surafce there are potential problems for all teams. Thanks for the comment Sheek, always insightful.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Thanks mate, what scars me is McCalman backing up Pocock. McCalman is not a fethcer, he is a ball runner. If we end up with him it will change the pattern of the Wallaby game to being more tight which may not be a bad thing however with our quick backs we should look to them, that when you need a 7 that can run all day, McCalman aint that.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Thanks mate, As an Australian you may find this hard to believe but I too am a big fan of Adam Thomson. I think he is a wonderful loose forward at Super 15 level, but I am not convinced on him at test level. I think he is not a genuine 7, not powerful enough to be a real 8 and at best is a good blind-side. I think Kaino is the best the Kiwis have in that department. Thomson's best asset IMHO is his link play, his ability to support the player with the ball but New Zealand will need more than that to dominate the back row contest against a strong backrow like Australia, France, South Africa, South Africa, even the Irish with Wallace, O'Brien, Leamy, Ferris are a strong unit so its an area of concern for the AB's. I think Dan Braid if fit or Matt Todd probably should have got a spot. In respect to the Wallabies, I would have taken Beau Robinson over Ben McCalman. We have Palu and Samo and at a pinch Higgenbotham can play 8. Yep, I agree re Kahn, good player and vital for Samoa.
The Other White Wendell
Roar Rookie
I'm mostly worried about Kev Horwill. He's had more than his share of injuries so far and has missed a heap of time for the reds and wallabies. If Kev gets injured do we revert to rocky elsom as captain?
sheek
Guest
This is precisely why we shouldn't get carried away with our predictions too much. Injuries to key players is the fear of most leading teams, or any teams for that matter. And obviously, some injuries are more crucial than others. In 1991, we lost Tim Gavin on the eve of the cup. This caused problems through the tournament until Dwyer settled on Troy Coker at no.8. But he left it late. Nick Farr-Jones was touch & go for awhile, but his backup Peter Slattery was in the best form of his career. In 1999, we lost Phil Kearns in the pool rounds. But Mick Foley stepped up brilliantly. John Eales & Steve Larkham, after each missed most of the home season, were nursed through the pool games. In 2003, we lost Toutai Kefu before the cup, which was a huge blow. Replacement David Lyons wasn't in the same league, but it didn't seem to matter. Sterling Mortlock was nursed back to form & fitness after a long layoff from injury. We will never know how critical Ben Darwin's loss from the final was for his team. Of course, the above stories can be replicated for each team. However, back in 1987, two significant injuries provided unexpected boons for the All Blacks. Firstly, captain-designate Jock Hobbs broke his arm (I think) in a Super 6 match, putting him out of the world cup. This opened the way for Michael Jones. Secondly, then veteran Andy Dalton, who replaced Hobbs as squad skipper, injured his leg on the eve of the tournament. This gave Sean Fitzpatrick his opportunity, & he never looked back. So injuries can sometimes have unexpected good results for a team. It just depends on the circumstances, & other players available.....
Tonto
Guest
I for one being an All Black supporter am worried about McCaw for Tonga vs NZ game. Ideally wouldn't risk McCaw against such a physical opponent but no choice with injury to Thomson as official #7 cover. Just to get through that game with a win and no major injuries would be a definite relief. As for Carter at least we have Slade and Weepu if another style is required. Benefit being is both are number #1 goal kicker for their provinces and both done it at international level (Weepu more than Slade though Slade the better kicker on paper. I really wondered why we took Corey Flyn into the World Cup Squad and not a dedicated #7. One of the benefits of John Afoa is he can play Hooker in a training camp sense although Hore is too good not to be in the starting 22. This would allow someone like Daniel Braid or even dare I say it Marty Holah (no Matt Todd we need someone with international experience, his turn will come) in so they are in the tactical camps and are in the same environment. They also provide a suitable opposite to Richie in training should an openside be required they would be suitably prepared. Fingers crossed!
jameswm
Guest
You've certainly nailed the Aussie two. At 10, we can bring in Barnes, Beale or JOC. At 15, we can put JOC, Barnes, AAC and others (even Mitchell) there. A decent drop in standard, but we could win a WC Final with one of those there. Our other backrow positions have depth. I'd say the next most important Aussies are Horwill and Vicks, because our next best locks are nowhere near as physical. Nowhere near.
Turnover
Roar Guru
Uncle, great topic for an article. There must be a media ban on discussing the No.7 back up options for the Wallabies and the AB's because I cannot believe the lack of criticism. It's funny how the non selection of a winger always seems to evoke more of a reaction from well... everyone. I am a big Adam Thomson fan as a No.6 and No.8 cover. Assuming he is injury free, he will also cover McCaw. He would do an okay job against the majority of nations. But come up against a decent 'fetcher' or even a great one like Pocock in the final, well.... there's no contest. In that match up, I would prefer to see Matt Todd everyday of the week. Or even better, Daniel Braid injury free, showing the form he had at the Red's. I am not a huge Beau Robinson fan but he is physical and would perform the role in the same way as Pocock. I cannot support throwing someone into a specialist position like 7 if they haven't played it before at least at Super Rugby level. I am much the same in terms of knowledge of the Samoan's.. All I would add would be that Kahn Fotuali'i must be key with his Crusaders experience.
Uncle Argyle
Guest
Mate I think they really are. As proven without McCaw and Carter New Zealand has struggled see France 2009 in New Zealand and not so recently against South Africa in South Africa.
kingplaymaker
Roar Guru
So the ABs are really chancing it then with their backups to 7 and 10.