Geelong and Hawks set for a great contest

Hawthorn players celebrate winning the 2008 Toyota AFL Grand Final

Almost three years on, Geelong supporters still cringe from the memories of what some consider ‘the stolen premiership’. Both clubs with an eerily similar campaign as 2008 will meet with the winner to progress through to the preliminary final and loser to return to the MCG a week later.

In polar opposite build ups, Geelong is coming off a rampaging win and Hawthorn struggling to defeat the wooden spooners, albeit without eight automatic selections who fell victim to ‘The General’, aka being rested.

The two teams last met in Round 12 when James Podsiadly booted four first half goals in a game that Hawthorn dominated the possession, but struggled against Geelong’s forward press. Finishing with 55 more possessions (394), Hawthorn trailed inside 50’s by 14 (52-38) and ultimately lost by five points.

The teams:

Geelong:

Tom Lonergan is likely to return after holding Lance Franklin well in the past. Cameron Mooney should return to stretch the Hawks defence which will double team Podsiadly. After a poor game on the weekend, Trent West will be omitted leaving Tom Hawkins to assist in the ruck.

Doing just enough as the substitute, Shannon Byrnes may hold his spot in the team meaning Darren Milburn could be omitted for Matthew Stokes. Joel Corey continues to suffer from the groin injury which kept him out for most of last year and would be the most reluctant inclusion.

Hawthorn:

Lance Franklin, Luke Hodge, Grant Birchall, Jordan Lewis, Cyril Rioli, Max Bailey, Shaun Burgoyne and Brad Sewell will at return most likely at the expense of Jordan Lisle, Kyle Cheney, Paul Johnson, Rick Ladson, Shane Savage, Chance Bateman, Ryan Schoenmakers and Xavier Ellis. The latter two could be considered unlucky.

Defence:

Geelong:

The Cats defence does not look as assured as it did in Round 12. Harry Taylor has played the last two weeks with a hip complaint leading to his substitution in both games. Lonergan missed last week with an alleged quad contusion, but he would have been told a few weeks ago he would be lining up on Buddy.

Lonergan will go to Buddy, Taylor to Hale and Matthew Scarlett will pick up one of the smalls and play the rebounding/chop out role.

Hawthorn:

Although being carved up by Podsiadly in rRund 12, expect Gibson to get the first crack again. In the second half of the season, he has been the All-Australian full back and will have greater assistance this time around. Ben Stratten proved capable on the weekend and will shuffle with Tom Murphy against Mooney and Hawkins. Alistair Clarkson will try to keep Birchall loose as much as possible. Expect him to cover the space 15m in front of Podisadly.

Troubled by the forward press last time around, the Hawks have shown greater set play variation from the kick ins. Watch Matt Suckling kick out short and run on for the hand ball receive before kicking over the press to a free man on the wing .

The Cats will continue to bomb the ball into the 50 if no option presents and trust their forward pressure to keep the ball in. If the Hawks can afford to play a loose defender, it may be Gibson who is the most competent overhead. This means when he drops off Podsiadly, Tom Murphy and Ben Stratten must keep Podsiadly out of the contest in order to negate that forward pressure from a spillage.

Midfield:

Geelong:

Each time these teams play, Cameron Ling can only tag one of Sam Mitchell or Luke Hodge. Viewing Hodge as the more damaging player, Ling has started on Hodge most games but moves to Mitchell if he is having too much midfield dominance. Expect the same.

James Kelly and Mitchell will naturally run shoulder-to-shoulder all night with each of them leading their respective teams in clearances.

Although Chris Scott has been given the luxury of playing youngsters Mitch Duncan and Alan Christenson in the midfield, the pressure of finals will see them spending more time up forward. Jimmy Bartel and Paul Chapman have seen reduced midfield time throughout the season so expect them to be fresh around the stoppages.

The Hawks have struggled in the past against Geelong in the ruck. This has led Jordan Lewis to go third man up while the Hawks ruckman keeps Ottens out of the contest. Lewis will punch the ball forward about 15 metres so the Cats must keep a man behind the stoppage for this.

Hawthorn:

Holding Joel Selwood to just 19 disposals while amassing 28 himself, expect Brad Sewell to get the job again. If Hodge gets the Ling tag, he must go forward and play Ling as a defender. Ling will not have the closing speed to stop Hodge on the lead who is a stronger mark. This would give the Hawks another tall option.

Amidst the natural match ups, Liam Shiels will be picked up by Geelong’s weakest midfielder. The cats allowed him to pick up 35 disposals last time but were let off by his poor disposal efficiency, 54 percent. This will be the match up to exploit as Shiels continues his run as Hawthorn’s most underrated player.

Steve Johnson must not be let loose into the midfield. Often he is well held when he is inside 50 but Johnson will push up into the midfield to make space for Mooney and Podsiadly. He leads the Cats for goal assists and loses his opponent when he pushes into the centre square to be the link up player.

Johnson strongly prefers to kick on his right and will snap whenever possible. Corall him to his left and he will be pinged holding the ball. Johnson runs more than regular forwards which is why he is often more damaging in the second half of games than the first. Teams have been undone by playing defenders on him. Shaun Burgoyne looks a good match up as a midfielder with a strong defensive game.

Forward:

Geelong:

Stratten is underdone and Mooney is fresh. The two are likely to line up on each other. Looking to test the full extent of Stratten’s knee, the Cats will look for the double lead with Podsiadly out wide first and then Mooney up the middle when Stratten turns his head. The Cats can really stretch the Hawks defence if weather conditions suit the talls.

Birchall will dictate terms in the Hawks defence with no Cats defensive forward tall enough to out mark him which could see Andrew Mackie shift forward since the small Hawthorn forward line will not warrant him to play loose in defence.

The Cats must not let any Hawk play as a loose defender because this is what instigated their round 12 comeback after half time. Geelong will also not have forgotten how much damage Luke Hodge wreaked that day playing loose across half back.

Travis Varcoe should expect to check Paul Puopolo for most of the night based on the run and carry he provides the Hawks with. It looks unlikely Varcoe, Stokes, Byrnes and Daniel Menzal will all play in the pocket together so expect Byrnes or Stokes to be named substitute.

Hawthorn:

Hale will be used to congest the middle before Buddy will lead wide. Matthew Scarlett will crash any pack if the ball is just bombed in so the Hawks will be more careful with their forward delivery. There will be plenty of chipping the ball around the 50 if no options open up for the Hawks.

Cyril Rioli is set for a massive game because Geelong has no match up for him. Josh Hunt will be given first crack but he will be burned very quickly. Geelong’s backline lacks speed beyond Corey Enright who would struggle to play a shut down role.

The Hawks forward line will be considerably smaller than the Cats defence. If Scarlett is forced onto either Luke Bruest or Brendan Whitecross, they must draw Scarlett away from the play. Scarlett will pounce when they await the spillage around goals, but will allow them to roam freely outside 50. Drawing Scarlett to the opposite side of the play will be critical to giving Buddy a one-on-one contest.

Since these two teams met in the Premiership upset, 19 points has been the biggest margin separating these teams. The winner will go through to the preliminary final where they will most likely meet West Coast at the MCG where they would be favoured to then progress into the Grand Final.

Form entering the game means almost nothing for these teams. Each team possess multiple A-Graders across each third of the field and both deserve to play a thriller in front of over 90,000 supporters.