James Kelly of Geelong tackles Chris Judd of Carlton during the AFL Round 09 match between the Carlton Blues and the Geelong Cats at Etihad Stadium, Melbourne. Slattery Images
What is the biggest guide to understanding which club will achieve premiership success in the AFL this season? Most people would suggest winning form is the key, while those more superstitious might say that luck on the day is all that is needed.
Well, it is neither of the above, nor is it anything else that can be based on the usual hyperbole that surrounds the climactic game of a long season.
So what is the magic ingredient? Believe it or not, it is the presence in the side of a player who has achieved the ultimate success at another club.
Yes, that’s right; a player who achieved every footballer’s dream at a club other than the one at which he is currently playing.
Case in point, in 2009, Collingwood had no premiership players in its side and lost the preliminary final to eventual premier Geelong.
Come 2010 and ruckman Darren Jolly was getting first hand to the ball and directing it to gun midfielders Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and former Saint Luke Ball.
As a result, Collingwood (eventually) won its first premiership since 1990, albeit against a St Kilda side that featured Adam Schneider and Shaun Dempster, both of whom won flags with the Swans in 2005.
In 2009 and 2007, Geelong had Cameron Mooney in its side, the ‘Big Hairy Cat’, having won a flag previously at North Melbourne (although he had little impact on that particular game).
Hawthorn’s 2008 flag was achieved with superboot Stuey Dew, who was an important cog in Port Adelaide’s inaugural AFL flag, playing a role.
Teammates of Dew’s in the Power’s 2004 premiership were Gavin Wanganeen (Essendon, 1994), Byron Pickett (North Melbourne, 1999) and Damien Hardwick (Essendon, 2000).
Since Darren Jarman became a dual premiership player with Adelaide in 1997/98, all but three flag-winning teams have won with a star who had taken a title at another club (North Melbourne in 1999, Essendon in 2000 and West Coast in 2006).
Jarman, of course, won his first flag with the Hawks.
Prior to that, you have to search deep into the record books to find a player who had recorded the feat.
Other players to have tasted success at two clubs in this period were former Fitzroy player Martin Pike (North and Brisbane), Blake Caracella (Essendon and Brisbane) and Jason Ball (West Coast and Sydney).
Adding to that, using Jarman as the starting point, each of the three clubs that won the premiership without a flag-winner from another team, had at least one player from their club’s last premiership in the side.
In 2006, Drew Banfield’s longevity paid off, when he added to his 1994 premiership, while in 2000, Essendon had Dustin Fletcher, Dean Wallis, Michael Long, Joe Misiti, Mark Mercuri, James Hird and Darren Bewick from 1993.
The Kangaroos, on the other hand, had Wayne Carey, John Blakey, Mick Martyn, Anthony Stevens, David King, Peter Bell, Glenn Archer, Brett Allison, Craig Sholl, Matthew Capuano, Corey McKernan and Adam Simpson in ther most recent success.
Collingwood in 1990, West Coast in 1992 and North Melbourne in 1996 are the only teams that have won the flag in the AFL era without a past premiership player involved.
To this year’s finals teams and, notably, each of the top eight clubs have premiership players on their lists.
But working on the vital ingredient of the premiership player being from another club, you can write Essendon and West Coast off this season.
Looking through the other six clubs in the mix and there are seven players currently on lists who fulfill the criteria. They are: Jolly, Mooney, Hawthorn’s Shaun Burgoyne (Port Adelaide), Carlton’s inspirational leader Chris Judd (West Coast), Schneider, Dempster and Sydney’s Mark Seaby (West Coast).
Interestingly, Brisbane premiership player Daniel Bradshaw, announced his retirement from the Swans part way through this season, while Seaby has played few games in 2011.
It is also worth noting that Mooney is in doubt after missing last Friday’s night thrashing of the ‘Pies, having played in the senior side intermittently this season.
Could his possible absence affect the Cats’ chances? Unlikely, but it would go against the current trend.
So, the question to be answered now is which player from the above list will add to his collection of premiership medallions in 2011? Only time will tell.
Rob McLean
Guest
Thanks for the mostly positive feedback, guys. As for the vital ingredient - the suggestion that these guys were vital to the premiership was more tongue in cheek than a serious suggestion. However, I did think it was an interesting trend.
Brian
Guest
Of course the top 4 teams have won the last 5 premierships so inexperience is very unlikely to play a role in 2011 but an interesting read nonetheless
subrasub
Guest
a really nice piece i was not aware of the statistics that give so much rise to the importance of 'premiership experience' from other clubs. I think its a valid point and a recent trend that can't be ignored but really i think this trend is more so a reflection of the need to acquire experience and restrengthen and trade shrewdly to get that balance in the side rather than just the neccesity to poach a rival premiership player. Your schneiders, dempsters and seabys will provide great experience but really are they the sort of players that bring premierships? I think not. Darren Jolly happened to be a preimership ruckman and the pies were in need and its worked well for them and blake caracella came to Brisbane when they had won back to back flags anyway so he cant be seen as a missing link of any sorts. It would be silly to suggest that this is the key ingredient to winning a flag. A combination of many factors determines who wins and one clear reason is impossible to find, such is the unpredictability of sport but its a great observation nonetheless.
sheek
Guest
There used to be an argument, in both AFL & NRL, that often you had to experience the despair of losing a final or semi-final, in the previous 2-3 seasons, before learning to win a grand final (premiership). Finals footy brings a different kind of pressure not found in the weekly grind of H&A fixtures. There is the added pressure of both the prize being in sight, & the fear of the "last chance saloon" style of knock-out competition. The standard of play obviously steps up, & games can turn on one or two little mistakes, or even pieces of brilliance. Players suddenly find they have less time & space to think & act. Some players will unravel because of this extra pressure, especially if they haven't been exposed to it before. So having that finals experience, knowing what to expect, what's in store, is a very handy thing to have in your team. These players, with past finals experience, will be the ones to calm their team mates, & show the way forward. There is a saying, "anyone can take the helm in a calm sea". It's the experienced helmsman who will come to the fore in a storm.....