We analyse why the top four teams should win, and why the bottom 4 teams could win.
Melbourne (1) vs Newcastle (8)
Why the Storm should win:
When the two teams played in April, the Storm gave the Knights a 42-12 touch up, which gives a clear indication of the difference between the two sides. I simply cannot see an upset brewing here.
Melbourne’s tight defence and expansive attack should overwhelm the Knights early and often. The Storm are also one of the fittest teams in the competition, whilst Newcastle appear to run out of gas in the second half of many games, particularly of late. Throw in Bellamy’s sublime coaching, and the home field advantage, and the Storm should prove too classy for the Knights to overcome.
Why the Knights could win:
Newcastle certainly have the ability to put points on the board. Four times this season they have racked up 40 or more points, and the side contains some potent attacking players, led by Kurt Gidley and Akuila Uate. If the Knights can stun the Storm with a couple of early tries, it will put the pressure right back on the minor premiers.
The Knights also have nothing to lose. Everyone expects Melbourne to not only win, but win convincingly. As such, the Knights should approach the game carefree and loose. And everyone knows how dangerous a team can be when it has nothing to lose.
Manly (2) vs North Queensland (7)
Why the Sea Eagles should win:
Manly have quality players right across the park, providing opponents with no obvious weaknesses to exploit. They had the second best defence in the competition, and also scored the most points of any team, combining excellent structured play with the outstanding individual abilities of players like Brett Stewart, Will Hopate and Jamie Lyon.
Their young halves, Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans, have led the team beautifully, belying their young age. And the Manly forward pack contains a nice mix of athleticism, mongrel and go-forward.
Manly are both well coached and contain plenty of talent. Put simply, they are a very, very good football team.
Why the Cowboys could win:
In the past, if you had shut down the brilliance of Johnathan Thurston, and to a lesser extent, Matt Bowen, than you would have defeated the Cowboys. However, this North Queensland team is vastly different to previous Cowboys incarnations that have relied heavily on those two players. This team arguably has more depth than the club has ever had the luxury of having.
The Cowboys are a real danger side with impressive attacking options. The foundation is laid down by the go-forward that prop Matt Scott provides, whilst Thurston and Bowen have the skills to unleash players of the ilk of Willie Tonga and Brent Tate.
Whilst the season ending injury to Tariq Sims hurts North Queensland, it still wouldn’t surprise me to see them cause an upset over the Sea Eagles, especially with the absence of Manly’s Glenn Stewart. However, whilst the Cowboys can certainly match Manly’s firepower, they will need to tighten up their defence, which was extremely patchy against the Warriors last Saturday night.
Brisbane (3) vs New Zealand (6)
Why the Broncos should win:
Brisbane have had an excellent, if somewhat underrated, season. Considering the depth in the league this year, finishing 3rd on the ladder is quite an achievement and highlights the wonderful season the Broncos have had.
Brisbane’s attack is led by the brilliant kicking game of their halves, Peter Wallace and Darren Lockyer. Their precision with the boot may be the best in the competition, and the Warriors will need to be at their defensive best to nullify the pair’s kicking prowess.
However, the Broncos are down on men with both Josh Hoffman and Sam Thaiday missing the game due to injury and suspension respectively. The Broncos hope their absence will be somewhat offset by the return of star centre Justin Hodges, who is set to play in what feels like Lockyer’s 900th farewell game.
Why the Warriors could win:
At this time of year, every club has motivation to perform well. So the fact that Lance Hohaia is leaving the club to join Super League team St Helens at the end of the season shouldn’t provide the Warriors with a greater incentive to win than any of the other 7 clubs in the finals.
Where Hohaia does make a difference is on the field. He’s one of the most underrated players in the competition, in an entire team that has struggled to gain the respect it deserves all year. Yet Brisbane won’t be taking the Warriors lightly, in light of their hard fought 21-20 victory just last month.
Pundits claim the Warriors don’t have enough big game players, but with superstar winger Manu Vatuvei returning from injury for the finals, joining x-factors players Feleti Mateo and Kevin Locke, along with veterans like Shaun Berrigan and Simon Mannering, I disagree. The Warriors have more than enough talent and skill to cause an upset over the Broncos, especially with Brisbane missing some key players.
Wests (4) vs St George Illawarra (5)
Why the Tigers should win:
Quite simply, because they are the hottest team in the competition, currently riding an 8 game winning streak.
The Tigers, due to their attacking style of football, are always dangerous when they have confidence and momentum; the exact two qualities that a significant winning streak provides.
They also have at their disposal, one of the best players in the competition, who is playing the best football of his career – a significant achievement, considering the career Benji Marshall has had.
The Tigers are on fire, and whilst Saturday’s win against the Sharks was the least convincing of their impressive run, they are the team no one wants to face at present.
Why the Dragons could win:
Whilst not back to their absolute best just yet, the Dragons come into the finals after consecutive wins, and are somewhat akin to the sleeping bear that no one wants to wake.
It’s important to remember three things about the Big Rev V:
1. As defending premiers, the Dragons know what it takes to win the premiership.
2. Despite their recent wobbles, they are still coached by the best in the business, Wayne Bennett.
3. They have a number of outstanding players, many whom are due for a big game or two.
Until someone beats them, the Dragons are still the champions, and no team will be taking the defending premiers lightly. The Tigers would never admit it publicly, but they would have preferred to face the Warriors or Cowboys.
Charles
Guest
Football is a very simple game and doing the little things right consistently can win more games than losing games. Wayne Bennett is a master at keeping things simple and it is why players believe in him as much as they do, they know what they are doing. However, there are times when I question Wayne’s ability as a coach. The game between the Dragons & Tigers was an example of that. It was glaring obvious all year the Dragons had to get their right side attack in order as they do with the left hand attack. They also needed to be cleverer up the middle. They have not addressed these issues and including some problems in defence, it is their downfall. The Dragons have overall, one of the best teams in the competition that have strength in all positions. The problem with simplicity, it can be read quite easily, therefore the Tigers were able to do well to nullify the Dragons potent attack on the left. Wayne Bennett needs to be cleverer, such as taking a kick for penalty goal when they had them on the line, keeping the pressure on in the goal area. Also the interchange is to be questioned; it is changing the dynamics of the team momentum too much. Yes, I am a sore loser, we should have won last night and I blame Wayne Bennett entirely for our loss! Grrr!
Pollyone66
Guest
Dragons Manly Knights To win -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Charles
Guest
Go the Mighty Dragons tonight! Dark horse in this competition is the Warriors, they are capable on their day These results would make me happy! Saints Manly Warriors Newcastle
Ken
Guest
Both systems have their flaws and weaknesses - it's why they make such a good argument topic this time of year! If the AFL system was so obviously better, the NRL would never have dropped it. If the NRL system was so obviously better, the AFL would never have dropped it!
Mango Jack
Guest
The upside is that there is no easy ride for any team. There's a big incentive for Storm to give it everything and avoid defeat, whilst a big bonus awaits the Knights if they can knock off the minor premiers.
M1tch
Roar Guru
If you win you are safe, if you don't then you should be nervous for a few days, i tend to think it adds more excitment to games and makes every game worth watching and every game has more meaning. If we had the AFL system I'd be happy with that as well, but I like the system we have, only thing I would change is the 2 highest rank losers get a home final in week 2..thats all I would change
The Barry
Roar Guru
Great first round of games, the rain should make tonights game a cracker. I've been thinking Tiges all week but am starting to sway to the Dragons. I'm tipping Dragons, Manly, Warriors, Storm but not with great confidence. If we had AFL semis (leagues before afl adopted it and vice versa) we'd have Mellbourne v Tigers, Manly v Brisbane, Dragons v Knights and Warriors v Cowboys. I reckon these fixtures would be even better as well as the inherent fairness of all top 4 teams getting a 2nd chance to make the prelim final and all bottom 4 teams in sudden death. I hate the fact that the loser of Friday nights game has to wait all weekend to see if they live or die. Every team should go into the games knowing where they stand win, lose or draw.
Mals
Guest
Apologies mate my mistake, for some reason I thought you were a Dragons man... perhaps the colour of Senna's racing suit had misled me... Yep you'll want a dry track tonight, still a good kick chase game will be worth it's weight in gold. I hope the crowd is about 30K to the SFS tomorrow night but we will see. No one can complain about the pricing of tickets.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Good on Richard, hope you enjoy the game. Nice to see a fan supporting another code.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
Gday Mals Dragons! I'm bleeding Black and Gold as we speak!! Hence my grim feelings about tonight. Enjoy the game tomorrow night mate. Hope they get a substantially larger crowd then what they would have got at Brookvale.
Mals
Guest
Mark - I would have thought you would be happy about the rain today as it should suit your Dragons more than the Tigers. If the Tigers start playing adlib footy expect some knock ons & loose passes in these slippery conditions. I am hoping it stays wet for the Manly game tomorrow night as this should suit my team Manly, despite me more than likely getting wet at the SFS.
Richard
Roar Guru
I'll be at the Storm game on Sunday; after all they're our neighbours at the old Olympic precinct and they deserve our support. What a great tribute it will be to Bellamy and the boys if they get up and win the big one after all the crap of the past few years. Go Storm. All Melbourne's behind you.
Al from ctown
Guest
Tend to agree jamesb, home finals or even regional finals should stop after week one... Unless they are played at neutral venues in the states the higher team comes from.. I guess you will still get the crowd advantage but the ground and sheds etc won't be familiar.. How does the afl system work after week one? Who plays who and do you get a second dig? Cause if it's 1 v 4 in the first week wouldn't it be better to throw some games towards the end so your lower and take on the lower teams?... -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
oikee
Guest
Thanks Silv, he is one of league's good stories, i remember when he was a very angry man at the raiders, now he is like a big cuddly pussycat. (squeese his cheeks as Geyer would say) 40/20 suits him. Maybe a 4 nations tour for him, i like the rolly polly type forwards.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
I'm very worried that the loser tonight will be out of the finals by Sunday night. I just have the funny feeling that the Broncx, Sea Eagles and Storm are all battling injuries and suspension and if two of them lose, tonights loser is gone! have my seats for tonight. Looking very mucky outside though...
Jeff
Guest
Yeeaaahhhh, I have just read that The NRL have finally sat down with Ch 9 and they have agreed to show Storm's Finals games LIVE into Victoria. Congratulations to both sides for listening to the multitude of fans that have been wanting this for 10 years. It took a long time before REAL action was taken.. but Melbourne Fans have inundated Ch 9 and NRL for 'LIVE finals incessantly for the last three weeks,sometimes making a pest of yourselves actually works.. Aw s--t, I got nothing left to whinge about on The Roar!!.. lol .
jamesb
Guest
AJ what i don't like about this system is if newcastle were to beat melbourne, they would get a home final in the second week in Newcastle. Now teams coming in 8th shouldn't get a home final. If anything they should be glad their still playing footy at this time of year. Anyway two teams will be eliminated this weekend. the two teams who are the lowest losers in the eight bow out.
AJ
Guest
I believe the Broncos might have their hands full with New Zealand tomorrow and If that's the case and the Broncos go down it only leaves a Nth Qld or Newcastle upset to see either the Dragons or Tigers bow out. It's spoken about every year but in my view surely like AFL 1 v 4, 2 v 3 with 5 playing 8 and 6 v 7 is a better and more rewarding playoff system after 26 Rounds
Silv
Guest
Oikee ... Michael Waymen from the Dragons is known as "40/20" because he looks 40 but is only 20 ... -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
HAHA! He's a great player Jeff Hoffman! So underrated - most people wouldn't have even known he was playing for Brisbane this year :) Cheers mate, I've amended. As for the use of the words 'should' and 'could', it merely indicated who the favourites are in each game, not who I think will win. For example, I actually think the Warriors will upset Brisbane. I totally agree with you, I think the Tigers and Dragons are very evenly matched.