If Boks beat All Blacks, it won't be an upset

I'm not writing the Boks off, like I said I never do. And I knew the overall record vs SA since 07 was fairly even, and that they've won more in NZ in recent years more than everyone else put together. My point was that of the stats you used the majority* are disproportionately affected by SA's one dominant year plus playing a B side in Port Elizabeth this year (just as the stats I gave above for Cory Jane & Kieran Read are disproportionately affected by a dominant year in 2010 and playing a B-side in Wgtn) so as to appear that they've been dominant. They've got the results on the board, but it doesn't tell the full story (just like Jane's and Read's stats don't either. *Brussow, Jannie Du Plessis, Beast, Fourie/JDV's combo, Steyn as a starter.

Sorry.. actually NZ have only won 2 games in SA since WC '07. The other 4 wins were in NZ. And SA have also won 2 in NZ since WC '07. With 3 wins in SA. Guys have a great day!! I'm really hoping the Boks get off to a good start against Wales. They should do but there have been a few scares already. I respect you all. I respect the All Blacks, great side. They are worthy of being given the favourites tag and are the Boks long time old foe. I respect the Wallabies team too with so much promise and talent and they want to win this thing. I love the passion from everyone. I'm however presuming that perhaps some of my points may cause a reality check for a few Kiwi's? As many have been writing the Boks off soo easily :-)

Jerry.. the overall trend since the last World Cup is played 11, Boks won 5, lost 6. That's the overall trend for most of these players in these two teams at this World Cup. And that stat is very even, regardless of which players these two countries have put onto the pitch for the game. If you really want to break it down further because you seem to be stuck on 2009, is that 2009 and 2010 cancel each other out. 3-0 clean sweeps both ways. In 09 Boks were strong and All Blacks had injuries to key players, most notably Dan Carter in 2 out 3 Tri Nations games. Then in 2010 Boks had lots of injuries to key players while All Blacks were pretty much at full strength. They cancel each other out. 2011 cancel each other out as both sent weaker teams to each others countries. So remind me what is difference between these two teams then? Is it the one game the Boks lost in 08? Hardly so.... Try look at the facts and think with an unbiased cap on here. Mate these stats above are from these individuals entire international careers. I even wrote when they debuted to make the point. My point is the bulk (10 only highlighted above) of these players making up this WC '11 team, individually, regardless of the years they have played or if they played together or not against the All Blacks (some stem back to 04,05 and 06), and in these combinations such as centre pairing have a great record against NZ. From those above, only Habana's is under 50% at 7 wins from 15, since 2004. And my point is these players are finally back together! But if you'd like I can outline the other 5 players expected to start. Pierre Spies - Won 5 out of 10 against NZ. 50%. Against everybody else including NZ won 27 from 42, 64% Debut in 2006. Morne Steyn - Won 4 out of 8 against NZ, 50%. Against everybody else including NZ won 16 from 27, 55%. Debut in 2009. Schalk Burger - 4 from 13 against NZ, only 31%. It seems as though he's been in the losing teams more often for some reason during 05, 06, 07, 08 and 2010 and did not play in 2011 or 2009 against NZ since debut in 2003. Against everybody else including NZ won 41 from 63, 65%. Now for Victor and Smit who were there in the dark days from 2000 -2003. Again in 06 and there for last years bad year in 2010. Victor Matfield - 8 from 24 against NZ, 33%. Against everybody else including NZ Won 67 from 107, 62% .Debut 2001. John Smit - 8 from 21 against NZ, 38%. Against everybody else including NZ won 65 from 106, 61%.Debut 2000. I've listed all 15 who are most likely to start. Are you happy now or should I list the reserves such as Guthro Steenkamp and Bismark Du Plessis too? In amongst these years SA have had many players who are just not up to scratch or have had to fill in for injuries to these "better" players above. And these players are back and in one team.. again! So my point is that the bulk of the players above who will most likely start the big games have a superior, or equal record against NZ. I wonder what the current starting All Blacks individual players records would be against the Boks!? It would be interesting to compare. So the trend since the last World Cup is All Blacks have won 6 from 11, or just under 55%. Will this record re-align itself again and revert to 6-6?! I have no idea, neither does anybody yet. The individuals playing together in this Boks team with their win/loss records suggest they can do it and beat the All Blacks... and beat them in NZ. And if they do win and the record reverts back to 6-6 then these teams are equal for the past 4 years and deserve to lift the Webb Ellis just as much as each other. Just a bit of perspective..... Plus both teams would've beaten each other 3 times each in each others home country and 3 wins at home. Should it be considered an upset then? Maybe only due to the fact that it's being hosted in NZ and NZ currently hold the IRB number 1 World Ranking!? Other than that.... you can't call it an upset.... it's simply even stevens.

how many tries did SA score vs all blacks B this year ? Zero ...how many tries will they score vs NZ in a potential semi ? Maybe one from a forwards move ? How many tries will SBW, dagg, nonu, score to beat south Africa ?enough to win the game ..indeed I believe Henry will plan for early shock and awe v the boks - should they meet ..he will aim to avoid a kick fest ..

Just to clarify - my point is that if you take out the guys whose stats are disproportionately affected by 09 the stats are more reflective of the overall trends.

Cory Jane has won 2/3 of his matches against the Boks. Dan Carter has won 75% Keven Mealamu has won a touch under 70% Conrad Smith has won 70%. When Kieran Read starts against the Boks he's won 75% of the time. It's pretty obvious that in 2009 the AB's had nowhere near their strongest team, but tried to make do with what they had. They put out a B team earlier this year. Look, it wouldn't be a huge upset if the Boks beat the AB's, they're one of the top sides in rugby and I'd never be 100% confident when the AB's are facing them, but the reality is that most of those statistics are hugely affected by the one good year the Boks had vs the AB's.

"Those are some good stats – I doubt theres many players in teh world who can claim a favorable win / loss percentage against the mighty Blacks" Even more so- 4/4 of which he was named man of the match in two of the four.

Meaningless point Chris, how many tries did the teams they beat score in the grand final against them to. Zero.

How many tries have South Africa scored in there WC final wins ?

Ivan.. not sure about the Aussie players stats. But if I recall correctly the last time Australia beat NZ in NZ was in 2001. Since the last WC in 2007; Australia - NZ, played 14, Australia won 3 lost 11. So not as good as the Boks record. In the last 2 years when most of these younger players have played, they've played 6 times, Aus won 2 but have been improving. This young Wallabies team is getting better and better and appear to be peaking just at the right time.... for this WC. It'll take a grand effort from any other side to beat them. The same as it will take a grand effort for any team to beat the All Blacks.

Apologies, Jean De Villiers debut in 2002 (one game against France then next played in 04) Jaque Fourie debut in 2003 (at the WC)

No Jerry, these are simply the stats for these players spanning their entire international rugby career. 09 hasn't been nit picked, and this is most likely the team to start for the big WC games. It just so happens that these guys with these combinations played in 09 too. When the Boks were stronger than everyone! Brussow - debut 09 Frans Steyn - debut 06 Jean De Villiers and Jaque Fourie debuted 04, albeit not in their centre pairing Fourie Du Preez - debut 04 JPP - debut 06 The Beast - debut 08 Jannie - debut 07 Bakkies debut - 02 Habana - debut 04 It's now 2011. So 2010 was included when NZ subsequently wiped the Boks 3-0. So your theory is void. I could give stats for Smit, Matfield, Schalk, Morne Steyn and Spies too who will likely make up the other 5. Smit career spans back to 2000, and Victors' 2001 (the Boks dark days) so they don't have as an impressive record as the Boks only beat the All Blacks again in 04. It's pretty obvious that in 2010 the Boks had no where near their strongest team, but tried to make do with what they had, as every team does when faced with injuries to key players. They put out a B team earlier this year as they did in 07. Mate you have to admit these are very impressive stats and I'm sure it surprised you! If you're not surprised then have a look again! It spans their whole test careers. I could be horribly wrong and the Boks could get smashed but somehow with these guys records above I highly doubt that. It just brings a bit of perspective. Regarding pure recent form, I think the Aussies are the team to beat to be honest. But obviously NZ are a very strong side, they're the favourites with their No. 1 World ranking and it being in NZ where their record is extremely good. Plus Aussie hasn't beaten them in NZ in ages, not like the Boks when some of these guys above beat them in 09 and 08. To be honest I'm just hoping that the Boks get off to a really good start and beat Wales, and beat them comfortably. Although any point margin will do just fine, as long as it's a win. Then they can focus on the Islanders and take it game by game thereafter.

Almost all of those stats are simply reflections of the Boks dominating the AB's in 2009.

Those are some good stats - I doubt theres many players in teh world who can claim a favorable win / loss percentage against the mighty Blacks. Do you have similar stats for players such as Cooper, Genia, oConnor, AAC, Ioane and co ? Would be interesting to see how they have fared against the old enemy. Interesting that Brussow has never lost to NZ - It speaks volumes of the class of this player. He is a match changer, and if SA do manage to upset NZ - no doubt he will be the catalyst. I think the World has written the Boks off, probably with good reason considering hte Boks have no really developed their game in the last few years, and with a series of poor games and players out of form recently. Im still of the opinion that SA with their best on the park, in form, are the only team who can topple the Kiwis, other than Australia of course. But lets first see what happens against Wales, that should give us an indicator - Wales must not be taken lightly either - they the kind of team that can pull off an upset if youre not on top of things.

Very good points and a welcome reminder of the threat of the Boks. I hope Ted reads this!

I guess to prove my point further here are stats for 10 out of the 15 players most likely to start the big games in the WC. These stats are games won against the All Blacks, plus their record against everybody. It will make for some interesting reading and a reality check for many Kiwi's, who can sometimes "forget" quite easily. Now please don't get roared up Kiwi's (excuse the pun), I know your record is still better than the Boks on average and your team is ranked as the number 1 side and are rightly so the favourites, especially at home. But with so many of these Key players and combinations back for the Springboks... it will definitely raise your eyebrows!! :-) Heinrich Brussow - never lost to NZ, record stands at 4 from 4, 100% record! Frans Steyn - When he's started for the Boks, they have never lost to NZ. Against everybody including NZ won 31 from 43, 72% Jean De Villiers and Jaque Fourie, when starting as the centre pairing - have Won 4 out 6 vs NZ, 67%. The two loses only were before WC 2007. In 06 and 07 respectively. Fourie Du Preez - total record since 2004 vs NZ stands at 5 wins out of 9, 56%. But only lost once to All Blacks since WC 07 back in 2008 in Cape Town, his first game back after returning from injury. Against everybody including NZ, won 39 from 57, 68%. JP Pieterson - has won 4 out 6 since WC 07, 67%. Albeit his total record stands at 4 out of 8, 50%. The other two loses coming before the WC during Tri Nations in 2007. Against everybody including NZ Won 27 from 38, 71% The Beast - has won 4 out 5 against NZ, 80%. Against everybody including NZ, won 19 from 28, 67% Jannie Du Plessis - has won 4 out of 7 against NZ, 57%. Against everybody including NZ won 19 from 26, 73% Bakkies Botha - won 7 out of 14 against NZ, 50%. Against everybody including NZ won 54 from 74, 72% record since debut in 2002. Brian Habana - won 7 from 15 vs NZ, just under 50%. Against everybody including NZ won 46 from 70, 65% since debut 2004.

Hey Gumboot, cheers. Yep we'd prefer to meet the All Blacks in the final, in NZ, the ultimate, but I guess you can't have everything your way :-) There's a healthy friendly-enemy relationship. But definite respect. I've travelled quite a bit and lived in various places as well as being involved in close friendships with Aussies and Kiwi's. And although there are distinctive culture difference between these 3, my view is that the reason why some rub each up the wrong way so easily is because when it comes to sport we're all soo similar. And making this very statement will probably rub many other people who are reading this up the wrong way.... I can picture the thoughts from all three countries..... "No.. don't talk nonsense we're NOTHING like them!!!"...... point proven. Ha ha. In general most people are nice and friendly, and when mixed with the same bunch from the same country tend to agree on points about their team and why they're the best. Most are passionate about their team, (if not obsessive like in SA or NZ) and put an unrealistic expectation on their team that they MUST win everything and desperately want them to win. I think I've been a culprit for the Boks before... maybe I still am! But it's good to put things into perspective and look at statistics. It cause you to face the reality of your teams chances and expectation that is placed on them.

Awesome article Rhino, it puts things into perspective, it's quite refreshing coming from a saffa (joking bro). Hopefully you're wrong about the Boks v AB's meeting in a semi, I'd prefer them meeting in the final. If I had my way I'd have the Boks come last but that's only out of biased respect. Go the mighty ABs

sorry mate, New Zealand are tournament favourites and are expected to win all seven games so by definition, if any team beats them, it will be an upset. Title aside, I do agree with the majority of your points - most people seem to be writing the Boks off and I think this is hugely premature for many (not all) of the reasons you have described above. I think they're a much better side than what they've shown so far in 2011 and if taken too lightly, they could certainly cause an upset and for that reason I'm quite happy we (australia) are on the other side of the draw (except for the fact that we will most likely have to play the England who have a knack of pulling their biggest games out of the bag against us despite being very ordinary against most other opposition - but hopefully France will knock them off in the QF!!).