ABs sharpen claws as quarter finalists emerge

Thanks to Ireland turning over the heavily-favoured Wallabies last week, one side of the knockout draw looks like the one to avoid – and by forgetting to turn up at Eden Park on Saturday night, Marc Lievremont’s France have done just that.

It is hard to know exactly how good New Zealand were on the night Richie McCaw became the first 100-cap All Black.

A lot of their play was indeed impressive, with Dagg, Nonu and Kaino shining in particular. Their coaching staff must also take a lot of credit for drawing up set plays that took advantage of French defensive habits. Cory Jane’s try was a classic example.

From a lineout to the tail, Weepu took it wide dragging the eager Dusautoir with him, anxious to shut-down Dan Carter, the ball was then fed to Jane inside who swerved around the cover to score in the corner. Nothing too fancy, just a well drawn up play, executed to perfection. With game breakers around the park and attention to detail of this sort, the All Blacks are justifiably the team to beat.

The French, on the other hand, are still a somewhat unknown quantity. They started strongly and were all over the hosts for the first 10 minutes. Unfortunately for them the territory and possession came to nothing – and as seemed to be the case all night, an All Black foray into the 22 resulted in a five pointer.

One assumes that the selections of Ducalcon in the front row, Traille at full back and Parra out of position at 10 were tactical decisions to take advantage of perceived weaknesses in the All Black defence. Clearly it didn’t work with Traille yanked at half-time and Ducalcon not long after, although it must be said that Barcella, his more highly-rated replacement, proved even weaker at scrum time.

As I have mentioned before, the French back row proved to be too lightweight to cause the All Blacks trouble. With Picamoles as the only ball carrier, New Zealand could focus on him and commit the minimum bodies to the breakdown and spread wide knowing that they were unlikely to be troubled by traffic close to the ruck.

By 60 minutes the game had become a training session for the All Blacks, with the French scoring through an intercept and thanks to some generous refereeing from Allain Rolland.

The worry for the All Blacks must be injuries, especially to their back three. The impressive Dagg limped off late on; one hopes he didn’t aggravate his injury unnecessarily by staying on too long. Kahui and Jane also withdrew during the piece nursing injuries. Should any of these turn out to be serious, the strength in depth of the squad will be tested.

However, with the likes of Mulliana to come in, and Hosea Gear sitting by the phone, it is hard to feel too sorry for them.

Australia, in their first game since Ireland burst their bubble, were impressive in putting away a spirited USA side.

They too will have some major concerns after the game – firstly from injuries to Anthony Fainga’a and Rob Horne, but also from Quade Cooper’s dramatic loss of form. Berrick Barnes was a major improvement when he came on, but not only is he very fragile, when it comes to unlocking the high-class defences they will see in the next phase, they need Cooper, along with the likes Beale, Genia and Ashley-Cooper, firing on all cylinders.

South Africa will be pleased with their run out against local rivals Namibia. Although never really tested, they will be buoyed by scoring the tries they did and from the form that a number of their players. Francois Hougaard had a strong game at 9 and must be pushing for selection on the wing in the latter stages, John Smit was prominent in the loose although it remains to be seen whether he can still bring that level of energy when he is under pressure at scrum time and having to defend a more talented attack.

The highlight of the game was easily the sight of Tendai “the beast” Mtwarira galloping down the wing for what seemed like 50 yards, before he was halted, bravely by Namibian winger, who ended up winning the penalty. Full credit to the defender – I am sure I was not the only person fearing for his safety.

England finally showed a degree of fluency in their demolition of Romania. Perhaps the most pleasing element was that seven of their tries were scored by the back three. Mark Cueto had a fine game, and has quietened any onlookers calling for Delon Armitage to start. Chris Ashton has found his form again and Ben Foden looked dangerous. Manu Tuilagi was again impressive and seems to have nailed down one berth in the centres.

Martin Johnson still has to figure out whom to play at 10 and 12. Mike Tindall was steady, and will never let you down in defence, but he is still a long way short of his best attacking form. Shontayne Hape is also a strong defender, but he too lacks cutting edge. Jonny Wilkinson will be glad to see the back of the Otago Stadium and will hope his indifferent form from the tee ends in Auckland.

The ongoing battle with Toby Flood for the England 10 jersey is intriguing but not really what the side needs. For me Flood is the man, as he offers more going forward and is not far behind Wilkinson in his 2011 vintage in terms of defence. I suspect that Jonno will opt for his old mate Jonny though.

It is too late now for experimentation, but it would have been interesting to see England play Wilkinson and Flood at 10 and 12 giving a left right kicking option and interchanging in attack to keep the opposition off balance. I would also have been an advocate of testing Tuilagi at 12 with Armitage at 13, a very attacking look, although perhaps vulnerable in defence given the lack of experience.

Scotland versus Argentina was an absorbing contest, more from the desperation shown by both sides, than the quality on offer. Neither side deserved to lose, really, but if there had to be a winner perhaps it was fitting that the game was decided by the only moment real magic produced by either side, courtesy of Gonzalo Amorosino’s late try.

Unfortunately for the brave Scots, the result makes their passage out of the group stages very difficult. Even a victory against England may not be enough, and they may need to get the bonus point for scoring four tries. Given the paucity of their attack to date, this seems unlikely, especially as England’s defence will be the best they have faced in the tournament so far.

One final note on Scotland, it may be of little consolation if they are on a flight back this time next week, but Richie Gray announced himself on the world stage in this game – prominent in the loss; secure on his own ball at line out time, and a menace to the Argentinean line-out. A real find.

Full credit must go to Ireland for kicking on from their victory over Australia by crushing Russia. Now all that stands between them and top spot in the group and an “easier” draw in the knock-out phases is victory against Italy – a formality surely? Maybe not, but they should come through unscathed.

Among all of the entertaining games over the past week, the one disappointment has to be Fiji versus Samoa. A full house, and how great to see it, was at Eden Park for this Polynesian clash, that was not the helter skelter contest that many expected. Samoa deservedly came out on top, but what a shame for then neutral that there was little of the attacking rugby and flair that these two teams are capable of on show.

Good luck to Samoa in their final group game, against the mighty Springboks. It would be a great result if they could pull off victory, but for me the ‘Boks are peaking at the right time and will pull away in the last 20 minutes. It is a real shame for them they were drawn in group D, had they been in New Zealand or England’s group they may well have qualified.

Based on what we have seen so far, here are my updated predictions for the knock-outs phases:

QF1: Wales def Ireland (very close game – decided by a dropped goal?).

QF2: England def France (close due to England’s indiscipline, but England manage to pull through).

QF3: South Africa def Australia (a tail of two goal kickers – Morne Steyn coming out on top).

QF4: New Zealand def Argentina (not even close – the All Blacks use it as another training session).

SF1: England def Wales (very close again, but English experience wins through).

SF2: New Zealand def South Africa (arguably should be the final, New Zealand coming out on top in a classic).

Third place: South Africa def Wales.

Final: New Zealand def England (lucky to make the final England find this one step too far, and the AB’s prove they can win the Rugby World Cups – provided it is on home soil).