NRL Grand Final 2011: Live scores, blog

NRL Grand Final 2011 (AAP Images)

The Manly Sea Eagles and New Zealand Warriors take centre stage in the 2011 NRL Grand Final with what promises to be a spectacular affair at ANZ stadium. Join us for the NRL Grand Final live, with scores and blog at 5:20pm (ADST).

The Warriors will have to defy history if they are to upset Manly and win their first NRL premiership.

Since the NRL’s introduction in 1998, no team has gone on to win a Grand Final after finishing the regular season outside the top four.

Over the past couple of seasons, the Parramatta Eels and Sydney Roosters have come close to achieving premiership glory, making the NRL decider after finishing the regular season in eighth and sixth position respectively.

Both of those sides however could not complete their fairytale finals run in the decider, with the Eels falling to the Melbourne Storm in 2009, and the Roosters falling to the St George Illawarra Dragons in 2010.

Like the Roosters before them, the Warriors enter the 2011 NRL Grand Final having finished the regular season in sixth position.

In the first week of the finals, the Warriors looked anything but premiership contenders, succumbing meekly to the Brisbane Broncos by 40-10.

During the aftermath of New Zealand’s poor performance against Brisbane, Coach Ivan Cleary famously declared that his team did not deserve a chance at finals redemption.

But with Manly and Melbourne both registering victories in the first week of the finals, the Warriors were granted an NRL life line, and have since never looked back.

Over the past two weeks, New Zealand has eliminated the Wests Tigers and the Storm – two teams that were heavily favoured to lift the 2011 premiership.

Their performance against Melbourne in particular was mightily impressive, blunting the attack of the favourites, and the Warriors will have to produce something similar if they are to give themselves the best chance against Manly.

Putting their hot potato brand of rugby league on the shelf, New Zealand’s forwards last week were aggressive, yet disciplined, with Jacob Lillyman, Ben Matulino, Russell Packer and Sam Rapira all putting in the hard yards against a Melbourne pack which was never able to truly assert its authority on the match.

One of the reasons why the Storm were not able to dominate field position had a lot to do with the Warriors outside backs constantly surging out of dummy half.

The darting runs from wingers Manu Vatuvei (150 metres) and Bill Tupou (142 metres) in particular ensured Melbourne’s defensive line was constantly on the back foot.

Indeed the preceding ploy will need to be performed again if the Warriors are to keep the dangerous Sea Eagles attack at bay.

If Vatuvei, Tupou, Krisnan Inu and Kevin Locke can continue to cause havoc up the middle of the park, then Manly’s forwards will have a hard time asserting the aggressive defence they often use to shake up teams early on in matches.

Such yardage from dummy-half will also ensure that Warriors halves Shaun Johnson and James Maloney possess a foundation in which to spark the similiar attacking raids that hurt Melbourne on the scoreboard.

Both Maloney and Johnson were instrumental in attack for the Warriors last week, with Maloney scoring a try thanks to a deft short ball from forward Micheal Luck close to the try line.

Johnson meanwhile set-up the match winning try against the Storm in the second half after producing several dummies before laying on a neat ball for Lewis Brown to score. This was after the 21 year old had earlier set-up a try for Tupou in the first half thanks to a terrific cross field kick.

Like his opponent Daly Cherry-Evans, Johnson has had a terrific rookie year in the NRL and is certainly capable of hurting Manly on the scoreboard, particularly if he has possession in broken field play.

In short, the Warriors 20-12 win against Melbourne had all the ingredients needed for Grand Final success.

Ivan Cleary’s men managed to take their chances when offered, whilst giving nothing away in defence against the minor premiers.

As discussed earlier, a similar performance will be needed if they are to give themselves the best chance of upsetting a consistent Sea Eagles side that has looked menacing at times in this year’s finals series.

Bar the opening forty minutes against the North Queensland Cowboys three weeks ago, Manly have dominated their opposition and look set to go up a gear thanks to the return of key talisman Glenn Stewart from suspension.

Despite being a lock forward, Stewart is renowned for his ball playing, and usually incorporates himself as an extra five-eighth, adding another dimension to the Sea Eagles lethal right-side attack.

The Warriors will have to watch Stewart’s combination with brother Brett, who is usually on the end of one of Glenn’s short passes down the right hand side.

While Glenn will cause headaches for the Warriors defence, it is Brett Stewart that will most likely hurt the Warriors where it matters most – on the scoreboard.

The Sea Eagles fullback is probably the most lethal support player in the NRL as evidenced by his performances so far in the finals.

Against the Broncos last week, Stewart scored a try after putting himself in position to score off a clinical short ball from Cherry-Evans.

Two weeks earlier, he scored a double against the Cowboys due to his ability to take advantage of the offload’s supplied by Kieran Foran and Michael Robertson respectively.

In short, Stewart has the licence to position himself anywhere on the park when the Sea Eagles are attacking, so the Warriors defence will constantly need to be on its toes, particularly down the right edge.

The Warriors will also have to limit the attacking threats presented by Manly halves Cherry-Evans and Foran, who practically control the Sea Eagles right and left edge attacks respectively.

Cherry-Evans loves to combine with the Stewart brothers down the right edge, while Foran also wrecks similar havoc down the left when he combines with Steve Matai, Michael Robertson and Tony Williams.

Foran’s combination with Williams in particular could prove decisive against the Warriors.

Williams was close to unstoppable against the Broncos last week, breaking several attempted tackles which kept Brisbane’s defence firmly on the back foot.

If Foran is given time to provide Williams with quality possession, then the ‘T-Rex’ could prove to be the X-factor against a Warriors backline that can lose its composure when ruffled.

Overall, both sides are pretty evenly matched across the park. While the Sea Eagles and Warriors possess terrific attacking players, this contest could easily turn out to be a low scoring affair, especially if New Zealand replicate last week’s showing against Melbourne.

Key NRL Grand Final Match-Up: Glenn Stewart vs Feleti Mateo

Arguably the two most effective ball playing forwards in the NRL, the performances from both Stewart and Mateo could dictate which side wins the premiership.

While question marks could hang on Stewart’s fitness (given that he has missed the past three matches), there are few forwards capable of putting their backline into play as effectively as the Manly lock.

Given his ball playing capabilities, Stewart puts opposition defences in two minds. This grants him the opportunity to either produce a good ball to Brett Stewart and company, or take on the line himself against a retreating defence.

Mateo will also cause Manly similar problems. Often employed as a five-eighth, Mateo has produced quality offloads in a season where he has not produced the Jekyll and Hyde performances of the past.

He has become a far more consistent player in 2011, given that he is now able to pick the appropriate moments where an offload or pass can be thrown.

With Cleary likely to utilise his services from the bench, Mateo has the potential to wreck havoc against a tiring Sea Eagles defence.

Mateo’s running game has also been a feature of his season this year. He made 151 metres against the Storm last week in a performance that illustrates Mateo’s new found ability to fork out the hard yards whenever necessary.

Key Stats:

– The Warriors have lost 8 of their past 10 matches against Manly.

– Lance Hohaia becomes the first player to have participated in two Grand Finals for the Warriors. Hohaia was also a part of the 2002 squad that lost to the Sydney Roosters in the decider.

– The Sea Eagles have won five of their past six matches at ANZ stadium.

The Tip: Sea Eagles by 6. While both teams possess similar attacking firepower, the Warriors may find it difficult to replicate the performance that saw them eliminate Melbourne last week.

Manly have prided themselves on consistency this season, and will be difficult to shake on a stage they have become familiar with, given their recent Grand Final appearances in 2007 and 2008.

Regardless, Des Hasler’s men will need to be switched on until the final whistle against a Warriors team that possesses the flair to hurt any side playing below their best.

Join us for all the action – the NRL Grand Final 2011 live blogged.