It’s quarterfinal time in the 2011 Rugby World Cup and we have been served up a four-course feast well worth salivating over.
Ireland and Wales kick-off the knockout stage on Saturday night in Wellington, followed by England versus France in Auckland. On Sunday, the big three will be out in force starting with South Africa and Australia (Wellington) and New Zealand and Argentina (Auckland).
Ireland vs. Wales
Ireland has gone from strength to strength after a less than scintillating start against the USA, 22-10 in New Plymouth.
Their famous win over the Wallabies has proven to be more than just a one-off; they are now full of confidence following a 36-6 thumping of the Azzurri last weekend, at the same time forcing Australia into the tougher side of the tournament.
The Welsh started their tournament off by almost pulling of a big upset, going down to the Springboks by one point. Similar to the men in green, Wales capped off their pool matches with a 66-0 demolition of Fiji.
The last time they met, Wales won a determined Six Nations clash, 19-13. After trailing at half-time, Mike Philips broke away to score from a sneaky lineout play that had the Irish fuming, a move that I am sure will remain in their minds when the two nations take to the field.
This is set to be a top-notch game as both have good form and go into this match with their confidence up.
Wales are playing a good brand of rugby as are Ireland, who has proven to be strong in defense. Warren Gatland said that “you wouldn’t expect anything else than a really tough game” and I agree. Both sides know each other very well and we should see a tight tussle in the weekend’s opener.
Prediction: Ireland for me by a mere three points.
England vs. France
The worst match-up of the quarterfinals by far, but still should be an entertaining game. England scrambled their way to a win against Scotland but just don’t seem to be playing compelling rugby.
Martin Johnson’s men will need to base their game around defense by putting their hand around their opponent’s throat to squeeze a victory out, something they have done in this World Cup.
The French haven’t seemed coherent in the 2011 World Cup. They go into this battle after suffering two losses, firstly against the hosts (17-37) and an upset defeat to Tonga (14-19). The magic and skills we hope to see from them hasn’t been on offer.
In the English camp, a big call needs to be made with Johnny Wilkinson by Johnson and the selectors. England must have Toby Flood in the starting line-up to get the teams engines going early.
Does this sound familiar? Perhaps you may recall New Zealand making a tough call with Mils Muliaina. How far does loyalty go?
Last time they met, England beat the defending Six Nations champions 17-9 in a game where Tom Palmer and Flood were instrumental. France came back hard after England dominated early in the match, but a Ben Foden try stopped their run.
Continuing on, England have the upper hand when these two sides have come face to face in the RWC having won four of the last five encounters.
Johnson was quoted as saying that the French are most dangerous when “flying under the radar” like they have been doing so far.
French openside-flanker Imanol Harinordoquy backed up Johnson’s remarks by mentioning that “every player has been at 50 per cent of their potential up until now”.
England has lost firepower from the outside due to the banning of Delon Armitage for a high tackle on Scotland’s Chris Paterson.
Prediction: France to reverse their Six Nations clash with England and move into the semi finals against Ireland.
South Africa vs. Australia
The match of the weekend, a true battle of the heavyweights, and a true test match in every sense of a quarterfinal.
The Boks are in form and playing some fantastic rugby. After a close encounter with Wales in a 17-16 victory, they then easily brushed aside Fiji (49-3), an 87-0 drubbing of Namibia, and wrapped their pool games up with a 13-5 win over Samoa.
In pool C, Australia finished ranked second after losing to Ireland in their first match. The Wallabies wins were over Italy, USA and Russia.
This is going to be a great game. Australia is dangerous and we don’t exactly know what we’re going to get from them.
South Africa goes into the game on the back of a very tough match against Samoa, and that could be key to this clash. Which team will be better prepared?
Australia’s hard game was their loss to the Irish – their first game of the tournament. Since then, they have had three easier games.
Akin to the Ireland versus Wales battle, the Boks and Wallabies know each other very well, and that is that these two powerhouses of world rugby couldn’t be further apart in playing styles.
South Africa will employ the high up and unders and force Australia to run the ball, then try and force mistakes. Further, the Boks are certain to look to their scrum and lineout, in addition to the maul, to smash and tire a weak Wallabies pack.
Quade Cooper and Kurtley Beale must fire for the Wallabies and thoroughly test out how good the South African defensive system is.
Australia get Digby Loane back for the match which is set to be played in a wet Wellington Sunday night.
Last time they met Australia defeated South Africa 14-9 in Durban after two late James O’Connor penalty conversions put the visitors in the lead and eventually gave them the win.
Prediction: I am tipping the outsiders South Africa, to set up a mouth-watering semi final against the All-Blacks.
New Zealand vs. Argentina
The hosts should win despite the loss of Dan Carter who ruptured his groin whilst practicing his kicking on the eve of their final pool match against Canada.
The 29 year-old said that “after kicking a ball it just popped and I went down on the ground in agony”. According to the playmaker, he only intended to have four practice kicks, and the injury came on that final one.
Aaron Cruden has been called into the squad to replace the injured Carter. On a positive note, captain Richie McCaw returns after sitting out with a footy injury in New Zealand’s 79-15 win over the Canadian’s.
Argentina haven’t captured the imagination like they did four years ago and on the weekend against Georgia, they looked labored.
The Puma’s have their main man, Felipe Contepomi, suffering with an injury (ribs) and overall, they just don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders and relying on a bit of X-factor here and there.
Last time they met, in 2006, the All-Blacks won 25-19 in Buenos Aires.
Prediction: New Zealand in a comfortable quarterfinal.
It is expected to be a great weekend of the highest class of rugby and fans should be very, very excited, no matter which nation you reside.
Following Cameron on Twitter @innersanctum.
Jerry
Guest
The only time in recent history the Boks have won more than one match in NZ is this year, and that's only cause they've been able to play the likes of Fiji and Samoa. They won once in NZ in 08 (and lost one) and once in 09.
Mike
Guest
Yes, that's always the thing with "hoodoos", "statistics"or whatever - they are there to be broken. So many commentators base their predictions on an unthinking assumption that whatever has happened in the past will continue to happen forever in the future. Case in point - I think it was that series where the Boks won at Dunedin - the first time in 100 years that they had done so. On the day, statistics counted for nothing - it was just another match and 100 years didn't count for squat.
Ivan
Guest
Actually, it was the year the Boks won in NZ twice - and with it the stigma of facing the Kiwis in NZ was removed. So it does have allot to do with who will win this WC - If the Boks beat Aus, i will tip them to knock NZ over.
2many1ndians
Roar Rookie
Same, freaked out a bit.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Way to scare a guy with hours old news.
Cam Larkin
Roar Guru
BIG NEWS JUST IN: The All Blacks have been dealt further backline injury problems with Richard Kahui and Israel Dagg the latest to be forced out from Sunday's Rugby World Cup quarterfinal against Argentina in Auckland. Kahui and Dagg, the first choice wing and fullback, respectively, failed fully to recover from leg injuries that have been bothering them during the past two weeks and will not play in New Zealand's most important match in four years. The news is a further blow to the hosts, with matchwinning pivot Dan Carter this week ruled out of the tournament and wing Zac Guildford also unavailable for this match because of a hamstring injury. The upshot will see Cory Jane and Sonny Bill Williams start on the wings, right and left, respectively, with veteran Mils Muliaina to slip into the No 15 jersey, and in the process make his 100th test match appearance. It will be Williams' first test start on the wing. The good news is that the absence of Kahui (hamstring) and Dagg (thigh) should not be decisive against Argentina, the weakest of the eight quarterfinalists and a team struggling to reach the giddy heights of their semifinal achievements at the 2007 World Cup. But the All Blacks coaches would have desperately wanted to play their top 15 in this match to ensure continuity of combinations, and the two outside backs, both in-form men at this tournament, would certainly have slotted into that lineup. The rest of the team takes care of itself. As expected, captain Richie McCaw returns to the openside flank after issues with a much-publicised foot injury, while Piri Weepu gets the nod at halback with Colin Slade to fill Carter's rather large boots at first five-eighths. Jimmy Cowan and Aaron Cruden, called into the squad this week as Carter's replacement, are on the bench as cover for the inside backs. ''There has been a real feeling of positive anticipation in the squad this week now that we have finished the pool play rounds and are into the quarterfinals,'' All Blacks coach Graham Henry said in naming the team. ''There is excitement amongst the team and we have had a good build-up on the North Shore this week, but there is also a realisation that this is sudden death, finals rugby.'' Henry had a special message for his 31-year-old fullback, who will join recent centurion McCaw as the only players to have notched 100 tests for the All Blacks. ''I want to congratulate Mils on this outstanding achievement,'' said Henry, who has known Muliaina since his schoolboy days. ''He is a special man and has been a world class All Black for many years - the consummate professional really - as well as a very influential member of the All Blacks leadership group.'' Ad Feedback The All Blacks and Argentina have played each other 13 times with 12 wins to the All Blacks and the one draw. The public consensus is the All Blacks will be far too good for the South Americans but Henry is aware of what can result from complacency at a World Cup, having presided over the quarterfinal defeat to France in Cardiff four years ago. ''We have the utmost respect for Argentina. They showed in their pool matches, especially against England and Scotland, just how physical their game is, especially at set piece and at the breakdown.'' Team: Mils Muliaina, Cory Jane, Conrad Smith, Ma'a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams, Colin Slade, Piri Weepu, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw (capt), Jerome Kaino, Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock, Owen Franks, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock. Reserves: Andrew Hore, Ben Franks, Ali Williams, Victor Vito, Jimmy Cowan, Aaron Cruden, Isaia Toeava
Cam Larkin
Roar Guru
The Boks didn't have a full line-up for the entire Tri-Nations and are now progressing nicely.
ThelmaWrites
Guest
Largely agree, Mike. But I want the hand-over to be less abrupt, at least six months. I have always thought that the two-year extension is a ploy to stiffen the Wallabies' resolve, to concentrate the mind on the Rugby World Cup, and that if Robbie fails, he would do the honorable things and resign. Sorry this comes at the end of an old thread, but by now you probably know I don't post lightly. Cheers!
Lewballs
Guest
I love to rip on Cooper when he does outrageous things that fail as much as the next guy. But he can be managed to to control his (often stupid) instincts. The only problem is I don't know what or who does that! I saw a much more collected, focused Cooper playing for the Reds than I have for the Wallabies. In the 3N deciding game he was a lot better than he has been in the WC, but this was even more evident for the Reds. Was it Ewan McKenzie? I do feel like, even when he has a howler, Deans blows wind up his ar$e. Why? Surely it would be good for him to be clipped over the ear and told that he has a very able replacement in Berrick Barnes waiting in the wings - someone who knows how to control himself and the game but also who has great skill. The longer I have observed Deans, the more confused I have become. As for Cooper, he has great skill, I don't see how anyone can deny that, but such propensity to do stupid things at crucial times! So I guess I am defending him somewhat and think that everyone should remember that coaches are there to help shape players' approach to the game and get their heads right. A better coach than Deans could get better results from Cooper's raw talent. And it is clear that McKenzie did that this year. Do the readers think that Barnes should start at 12? And do they think that Deans would replace Cooper with Berrick if Cooper is having a total shocker and not listening to the calls to control himself?
Mike
Guest
Quakezone, I think most Australians have no doubt about which Trans-Tasman side is superior! Its one of the reasons that we so enjoy knocking off the ABs on those occasions when we can do it. I am not necessarily accusing you of this, but many AB fans use 'hollow victory' as sour grapes. Its one of the things that drags the reputation of AB supporters down - a small but vocal band of supporters who cannot concede that their team is not 100% divine. This was a 3N like any other, and this time we won it. That small vocal group of AB fans will whinge and say "It wasn't real 3N", just as they moan about the 2007 RWC - "South Africa had a hollow victory because they didn't play ABs to get it". For these people, there is always an excuse when the ABs lose. And of course they never appreciate that distinguishing factors can be found for EVERY win by EVERY team, with little searching But hey, I think very few outside that particular group are fooled by this. The best team won 3N and the best team will win this RWC, whoever that may be. ABs will remain a great team, even though they sometimes get outplayed and sometimes lose.
Quakezone...
Guest
Mike - The ARU wanted the change to a two match format for the Bledisloe when the Wallabies held the trophy and it took NZ a long time to win it back through a lot of 1 point defeats etc...but they did win it..it means more to the kiwis than the TN as its signifies Trans tasman superiority...the Tri nations was won by Aust this year but it was a kind of hollow victory and the wallabies took thier chances...about time too, thats one elusive trophy for the Wallabies and the South Africans, too bad it isn't payed every four years
Mike
Guest
"We were incapable Mike. As opposed to 1996, ’97, ’99, ’02, ’03, ’05, ’06, ’07, ’08, ’10" Exactly. You seem to have a problem with the fact that you can't win it every year. But that's the way sport works. No-one is good enough to do it all the time.
2many1ndians
Roar Rookie
No you're right Mike, NZ was incapable of winning the 2011 TN. As were SA. Both nations fielded full strength teams throughout the tournament, but ya know Mike, Australia was just too darn good. The Wallabies were capable for the thrid time out of 16 attempts and should be congratulated for such a mesmerising performance. We were incapable Mike. As opposed to 1996, '97, '99, '02, '03, '05, '06, '07, '08, '10. Like I said Mike, enjoy your TN win. Cheers
Mike
Guest
2many1ndians, Simply repeating like a mantra "we didn't really want the 2011 TN" doesn't make it so. The motivation is obvious. I understand, I really do. But its time to just accept that you weren't capable of winning the 3N this year. It happens to everyone.
Mike
Guest
What are you going on about Jerry? dwc made the point that Brussow's stats are "muddied" by the particular tactics employed by SA in 2009. I am not sure I agree with him there, but whatever, its the point he made. I agreed with him to the extent of conceding that Brussow's success was overshadowed by his team's particular success in that series.
pim
Guest
are England,France,Wales etc ranked 1,2,3 in the world?
Jerry
Guest
Ahhhh, 2009…. Living in the past is indeed a wonderful thing – although it has zero to do with who will win this RWC.
The Dripping Tap
Roar Rookie
Wales team announced & Warren Gatland & Co have made a few gaffs with selection which may just tip the match in favour of Ireland.... Despite his good performances in RWC so far, Priestland should have been benched in favour of Stephen Jones who offers the safer pair of hands, runs straight at the blitz defence & gives excellent service. Added to this his experience will be vital for match. Jonathan Davies is a great centre but a little pedestrian for me, & I'd rather see some pace next to Jamie Roberts. Halfpenny to full back is a risk & I'd have stuck with Lee Byrne. Mark Cole - markjcole@hotmail.com
2many1ndians
Roar Rookie
"The same people tried to argue that they didn’t really want the 2009 TN either, when ABs failed to take a match against the Boks. Sour grapes have been around since Aesop." Most definately not Mike, there you go again, assuming things you know very little about. The 2009 Springbok were an awesome outfit, no rugby lover could dispute that. Did we want to win it? you bet ya we did ... and we got slammed. Same thing happened in reverse in 2010 when we white washed the entire tournament. Did SA and AUS want to win it? absolutely. No sour grapes from either party. I doubt anyone could dispute that. 2011 though, and no one cared except Australia. But good on you guys. You won. Enjoy it.
Mike
Guest
"The Bledisloe is little importance to NZ rugby?" The trophy, yes (as opposed to matches between Aus and NZ). I appreciate that many will try to deny that, just as they will try to argue that "we never really wanted the 2011 TN anyway". The same people tried to argue that they didn't really want the 2009 TN either, when ABs failed to take a match against the Boks. Sour grapes have been around since Aesop. Back to the Bledisloe - unfortunately, the harsh truth is that the trophy has far less meaning when it is only played over 2 matches, when the incumbent will usually retain it. If and when it returns to a true series, then the trophy will regain its former significance. On the other hand, there is a sense in which every match between Aus and NZ is special, and always will be.