Why A-League 2011-12 is a league in three

By Adrian Musolino / Expert

Melbourne Victory’s Harry Kewell runs away with the ball against Aelaide United in a pre-season friendly in Adelaide (AAP Image/James Elsby)

For last few weeks I’ve agonised over my 2011-2012 A-League predictions, trying to put the 10 clubs in order of how they’ll finish the home and away season, and picking the grand finalists and eventual winner.

At one point or another Brisbane Roar, Central Coast Mariners, Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory have occupied top spot and had grand final berths. Down the other end of the table, Wellington Phoenix, Gold Coast United and Newcastle Jets have all had a spell at the bottom.

The rest occupied the middle of the ladder – not quite good enough for the Premier’s Plate yet still in finals contention.

So when trying to put the 10 in order, what I found was while their exact positions may have changed, there were three clear groups that could be easily distinguished.

Consider it like it’s a Formula One qualifying session. For the uninitiated, F1 qualifying is divided into three elimination sessions. The slower stragglers are eliminated in the first session, Q1. Next its Q2’s job to eliminate a further group of drivers before the fastest go through to Q3 to determine the pole-sitter.

Here is how my A-League 2011-12 ‘qualifying results’ look:

Q3 (1st to 4th):
Melbourne Victory
Adelaide United
Brisbane Roar
Central Coast Mariners

Q2 (5th to 7th):
Sydney FC
Melbourne Heart
Perth Glory

Q1 (8th to 10th):
Gold Coast United
Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets

Now for the justifications…

Of the Q1 stragglers, there simply isn’t the depth of squad, recognised stars who can change a game (Paul Ifill and Jason Culina could be considered such, but injury rules out the latter and hangs over the former).

Any chance Newcastle had of getting out of Q1 could have evaporated with Branko Culina’s sacking on the brink of the season. Without a marquee (unless Jason Culina’s contract can be torn up and a replacement acquired) and losing a coach so late into preparations, the Jets appears to be in some trouble.

However, the three cellar dwellers are more than capable of upsetting the Q2 and Q3 clubs on their day.

Wellington can always rely on strong home form, even when struggling on the park – although the less congested calendar and reduction in midweek games will help other teams’ preparations for the trip across the ditch.

On the Gold Coast, there may be question marks around the depth in the squad and the lack of experience, but Miron Bleiberg is the coach to graft out results.

Newcastle will be buoyed by big home crowds if the close to 10,000 members show up on a regular basis, while owner Nathan Tinkler has the financial might to splash out on much-needed replacement for Culina (if he’s allowed to) or guest players to try and fill the void.

Of the Q2 clubs, Heart, Perth and Sydney have more star power than the Q3 clubs – players such as Fred (if he’s still as good as his Victory days), Shane Smeltz and Brett Emerton can turn matches on their own, and all three clubs have solid squads.

Yet there are serious question marks over all three.

Does Perth have the pedigree and coaching staff to avoid another wasted season?

Does Heart have the depth across the park and the experience in their sophomore season? And what of those rumours that Simon Colosimo is unhappy at the club, adding further doubts on a defensive line-up that looks a tad shaky.

Does Sydney FC have enough attacking options and have they learnt from the failings of last season?

When compared to the Q3 leaders, there are too many question marks around these three clubs. Crucially, one Q2 will miss the finals – a big blow for all three if that’s case given their high expectations.

Then there are the Q3 leaders: the two pacesetters from last season along with the two clubs that have been the most aggressive and impressive in the transfer market.

Brisbane and Central Coast have retained enough of their talented squads to challenge again this season, and they have plugged the gaps well – in Brisbane’s case, with a great mix of young players who can thrive in that environment.

If any club can buck the trend of challenging for back-to-back triumphs, it’s the club that set a new and incredibly high benchmark last season. Under Ange Postecoglou and playing the sort of football they did last season, they cannot plummet like previous defending champions.

Adelaide United has an incredibly strong spine and will greatly benefit from Jon McKain at the back, while there’s great depth across the park and a sense of unfinished business from last season.

As for Melbourne Victory, my tip to go all the way, the combination of Harry Kewell, Archie Thompson, Danny Allsopp, Jean Carlos Solórzano, Marco Rojas and Carlos Hernandez could tear the league apart – particularly the Archie-Kewell partnership.

That line-up is arguably the best and deepest attacking stock the A-League’s ever seen, and even if there are question marks around their defense, they are more than capable of compensating at the other end.

The A-League is a league in three this season.

The Crowd Says:

2011-10-06T02:39:29+00:00

Kasey

Guest


Wasn't it the introduction of 'tino asprilla that was deemed(by the media - and some fans at least) to have unstabilised the squad in the lead in to the final rounds of the season, allowing ManYoo to squeak in?

2011-10-06T02:24:53+00:00

Axelv

Guest


"Is it true Lucas was meant to be on first but wiped out the instructions on the whiteboard in the green room and sent in Emmo #foxfootball" LOL!

2011-10-06T02:17:20+00:00

Axelv

Guest


It was misquoted, the contact ends 2015 with Etihad. That's what Geoff Miles said when a fan asked.

2011-10-05T18:50:22+00:00

Siena

Guest


Simon Hill who is FOX Sports resident 'Clairvoyant' as well as an alleged sports reporter has predicted that the NIX will out of the 10 A-League clubs...will conclude the season at Number 10. At least you give us a '9' So your another SEER...Well SEE R Later!

2011-10-05T15:59:18+00:00

ComradeRoar

Guest


Hey FIUL, Yes I have been watching Barcelona recently. Infact ironically, I wrote that comment last night in Barcelona. It was something like 12am when I wrote that and I was a little cranky. None the less, the statement "they are more than capable of compensating at the other end" cannot be construed any other way than... What it says, they are more than capable of compensating (for defence with a potent attacking team). As many people below have pointed out Keegan is one of many managers who have attempted this and have failed. I think also my bitterness is also about this fluff journalism. I'm anxious to get the season started. I'm sick of 'Theo says roar will be a threat', 'Kewell settling in well', 'Arnold looking forward to 'exciting' season'. This article is no different, it's all fluff, what's the point? I realize this is an opinion piece but there is no clear argument, in fact, the article poses more questions than it seeming answers. The only half arsed analysis is "As for Melbourne Victory, my tip to go all the way, the combination of Harry Kewell, Archie Thompson, Danny Allsopp, Jean Carlos Solórzano, Marco Rojas and Carlos Hernandez could tear the league apart – particularly the Archie-Kewell partnership." which is pointing out facts, yes, that is MV's forward's, yes, it will be potent. "Wellington can always rely on strong home form, even when struggling on the park" Rubbish, no substance to this statement. Wow, home teams perform well!? "Does Perth have the pedigree and coaching staff to avoid another wasted season?" What does this even mean? Thomas Broich didn't have too much pedigree left, Kosta Barborouses none, and even less people had ever heard of JC Solerzano. Don't even get me started on the quality of the coaching staff, before last season everyone thought Ange was washed up. That statement has no logic to it. "On the Gold Coast, there may be question marks around the depth in the squad and the lack of experience, but Miron Bleiberg is the coach to graft out results." Is the coach to graft out results? Yes, Gold Coast has had 2 great seasons so far, but that was helped in perticular with a strong attacking line up, Culina was superb in his first season back from Holland and nothing needs to be said about Smeltz and his knack for goal scoring. Djite was also a good player for them, able to create some fantastic through balls as well as being up front to slot in a few of his own. Bleiberg is a 'good' manager, but he will be tested this year. The aforementioned statement is hyperbole and makes no specific mention of the challenges facing GC this year, why they are facing them, and who Miron has decided to replace all those other players with. Also, if I hear the word 'depth' again, I will explode. Summarising: an opinion piece which may or may not be accurate but fails to tell us anything new or give adequate information to justify the conclusions reached. There has been a complete failure of technical analysis and relies far too much on cliche's (and questionably the authors failure to understand the tactical and technical aspect of the game) and as such this article has failed to inform or educate.

2011-10-05T14:19:56+00:00

Galaxy Hop

Guest


The Victory strips in all the pictures being used are garish. That's my only contribution to this discussion.

2011-10-05T13:16:24+00:00

TheMagnificent11

Roar Guru


Tend to agree with most of this. Top 4 will include Adelaide, Brisbane, Central Coast and Victory (in not particular order). Heart and Sydney to round out the 6. Fergie to be the first coach sacked. Maybe if that happens early enough and they get someone like Gary van Egmond, then they might sneak the 6. Gold Coast will probably just miss the 6 but well placed to improve next season.

2011-10-05T10:13:00+00:00

Kasey

Guest


Tom, AM is a professional TV person. I thought he did an okay job, got a bit tongue tied on occasion, but who wouldn't when football isn't your primary forte and your 2 panelists(and the guests) have lived & breathed a lifetime of it. Hell around Mel I'd be lucky to get my own name right! I refuse to hate on the guy because he made a career as an AFL drone, I thought he did pretty well and he did some good prep work (little things like not stumbling over football vs Soccer and pronunciation of foreign club names etc) he'll grow into it, Perhaps as a host on SEN radio he can drop in the "tune in to Fox Sports FC for everything football? " I thought I detected a bit of a liking for football in Maher, I don't think he's a hater. Besides hating on people because they like another sport as well as football means we in the southern states would end up hating half of every crowd in our stadiums. and as if it was needed, proof football fans have a sense of humour: tweet from Tony Harper: Is it true Lucas was meant to be on first but wiped out the instructions on the whiteboard in the green room and sent in Emmo #foxfootball

2011-10-05T09:56:59+00:00

tom

Guest


just finished watching foxsports fc. the compare of the show is andy maher of sen fame. he gave the impression that he had little knoweldge of the game. does any body know why simon hill is not on the show and why they picked andy maher. i'm sure his passion is afl. why does football in australia consistently thinks that the better people are outside the family. had leach got the job i would have applauded. he's a football fan.

2011-10-05T09:37:04+00:00

The Cattery

Roar Guru


Titus/Midfielder That is one of the strange aspects about it - most junior clubs are doing 5s for the littlies, all round Australia, so there is a piece of the jigsaw that I'm not quite understanding. Junior clubs charge decent fees for their fives comps (we're talking up to about U7 level), and the FFA gets a cut of that, so I don't quite understand where this Soccer5s fits in. In South America, you don't need astroturf to play 5s, you play wherever you can find a flat surface and a bit of space.

2011-10-05T09:32:34+00:00

whiskeymac

Guest


i remember that season, and the teams. asprilla.... what a player!

2011-10-05T09:07:32+00:00

Ian Whitchurch

Guest


It doesnt matter if they are a big or a small company. What matters is if the cheques clear. Firepower were pretty big for a while, and Russell Crowe's best call was to tell them to take a long walk off a short jetty.

2011-10-05T09:03:00+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


Kasey If ever any other proof was needed Soccer5 are a big company... you would have tho they would have started in Western Sydney ... in the heart land areas with the old NSL clubs and the huge player base and were Football NSW live are are playing to build their own academy... But they choose the Mariners COE... there has to be a reason for that ...

2011-10-05T08:51:58+00:00

Kasey

Guest


Thank you very much for the time taken to write that out. I wish some of the posters on here would read that before throwing out some of the banal barbs like 'plastic clubs' and new-dawners, because what you've described would make anybody proud to be a football fan. WD CCM, never getting the props they deserve, but I'm sure the true believers of the football world respect your club.

2011-10-05T08:42:24+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


Kasey Huge story behind the clubs unwritten charter .... re alcohol in particular ... and its why we now have the COE.. As brief as I can... the Mariners management in the early years of Hal worked their bums off to bury the football roots deep into the local community, which was a RL heartland area... and had just lost the Bears ... Lyall Gorman among the many things he did sat on the Central Coast Area Health Board ... while on the board Lyall prepared a paper on how alcohol was causing a lot of problems with the CC youth especially those in the 14 to 20 age bracket.... the paper was well received and praised Lyall.. Lyall said the Mariners would do everything they could to help local youth and as part of this would not promote alcohol. Jump forward about 10 months and the club was in some financial trouble and Lyall took the hat around the local business community and John Singleton a RL man tho & Tho gave the Mariners $ 500, 000.00... John saved the club and wanted nothing in return said he admired what the team were doing and how well they were well-behaved ... Four months latter Bluetounge Beer are sold by John Singleton and the new owners given they have naming rights over the stadium ... offer the Mariners a tad over one million a year sponsorship ... Lyall rejects the offer we go without a shirt sponsor, Lyall says he saw at first hand the trouble alcohol was causing the youth and said he was not joking ... Lyall sold the dream of a football team on the CC on as a regional centre we could build Australia's greatest football academy and get Australia's best juniors to play for us.. thereby providing both a source of good players and a revenue stream when they were on sold overseas.... Twelve months go bye and then TUGGERAH RSL own 10 acres of land and support the local football team , the club is in need of some Tender loving Care but very usable.... The RSL offer the Mariners the land to develop their COE sighting the honour shown in the alcohol sponsorship and the Mariners will rebuilt their club... Wyong council own ten acres of land along side the RSL clubs and say you can have it we trust you will develop your Centre of Excellence... so the Mariners get a club, 20 acres of land and last year 10 million from the Federal government to start building the facilities .... No-one saw this coming .... everyone told Lyall he had gone mad .... take the money ... he said in reply I gave my word... and it is the right thing to do... So there is an unofficial code the club has with the local area health department and local councils to not behaviour badly ... Just tho I would explain to those that did not know the reasons behind the unofficial charter...

2011-10-05T08:17:46+00:00

Kasey

Guest


2025 seems like a likely drop dead date for the contract, Does anybody really think the sweeheart deal the Victory get will be extended when the AFL takes control of the venue? Great news for fans who prefer their football in a rectangular venue, Adelaide were happy to welcome the tards to that particular club, hopefully the better viewing experience will help a little bit to dispell some of the negative media they get in the ultra-hostile media market that is tardistan.

2011-10-05T08:16:41+00:00

Ian Whitchurch

Guest


Fussball, In the name of their company, they called Association Football ... Soccer. You know, as in rugger, league, footy, soccer and so on. The term you get really really upset at, claiming only one code has the name 'football'.

2011-10-05T08:12:45+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


This is Soccer5 Australian site http://www.soccer5s.com/

2011-10-05T08:10:39+00:00

Midfielder

Guest


TC They are a big UK sports company wanting rapid growth around Australia ... they have signed a long term lease at the Centre of Excellence... given they promote playing 5 a side matches and are quite a sizable company it is a perfect fit... Soccer5 get exposure to the Australian Football community and that they are at the COE.... the Mariners get a sponsor with big plans and as I said below fits well with our unwritten charter of no sponsors with no alcohol or gambling...

2011-10-05T08:09:34+00:00

Titus

Guest


I think it is a pretty big Scottish organisation that is looking to get into the local 5s scene, which is huge throughout Sydney and I would assume nationally. Central Coast is just where they are starting out I think. So not a bad deal for both I would guess.

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